Language:English
Sturm Graz v Rapid Wien
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Sturm Graz (Local)
Prediction 47.04%2.13fair odd
EV -4.98%
Edge -2.46%
Kelly -4.88%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.02
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.57%47.18%47.06%49.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.781.921.912.0256.18%52.07%52.36%49.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Rapid Wien (Visit)
Prediction 26.96%3.71fair odd
EV +2.44%
Edge +0.641%
Kelly +0.870%
Growth +0.021%
assuming max odds 3.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.06%26.83%26.98%28.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.503.463.8032.26%28.60%28.90%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 26.00%3.85fair odd
EV -2.49%
Edge -0.665%
Kelly -0.906%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.63%25.99%25.96%28.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.483.453.7533.33%28.75%28.99%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sturm Graz (Local): 47.04%; Rapid Wien (Visit): 26.96%; Draw: 26.00%. For Rapid Wien (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.71. 13 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.44%.
Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.16%EV -12.03%E -6.43%K -13.83%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.19%EV +2.44%E +0.641%K +0.870%G +0.021% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.65%EV -10.29%E -2.98%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-17 02:50 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.16%EV -12.03%E -6.43%K -13.83%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.19%EV +2.44%E +0.641%K +0.870%G +0.021% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.65%EV -10.29%E -2.98%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-17 02:50 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.16%EV -12.03%E -6.43%K -13.83%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.19%EV +2.44%E +0.641%K +0.870%G +0.021% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.65%EV -10.29%E -2.98%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-17 02:50 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.16%EV -12.03%E -6.43%K -13.83%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.19%EV +2.44%E +0.641%K +0.870%G +0.021% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.65%EV -10.29%E -2.98%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-17 02:50 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.16%EV -12.03%E -6.43%K -13.83%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.19%EV +2.44%E +0.641%K +0.870%G +0.021% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.65%EV -10.29%E -2.98%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-17 02:50 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.16%EV -12.03%E -6.43%K -13.83%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.19%EV +2.44%E +0.641%K +0.870%G +0.021% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.65%EV -10.29%E -2.98%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-17 02:50 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.16%EV -12.03%E -6.43%K -13.83%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.19%EV +2.44%E +0.641%K +0.870%G +0.021% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.65%EV -10.29%E -2.98%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-17 02:50 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.16%EV -12.03%E -6.43%K -13.83%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.19%EV +2.44%E +0.641%K +0.870%G +0.021% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.65%EV -10.29%E -2.98%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-17 02:50 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.16%EV -12.03%E -6.43%K -13.83%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.19%EV +2.44%E +0.641%K +0.870%G +0.021% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.65%EV -10.29%E -2.98%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-17 02:50 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 49.22%EV -13.44%E -7.31%K -16.01%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.15%EV +1.09%E +0.290%K +0.396%G +0.004% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.63%EV -11.59%E -3.41%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-05-17 02:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 49.22%EV -13.44%E -7.31%K -16.01%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.15%EV +1.09%E +0.290%K +0.396%G +0.004% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.63%EV -11.59%E -3.41%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-05-17 02:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.35%EV -13.91%E -7.60%K -16.76%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.08%EV +1.09%E +0.290%K +0.396%G +0.004% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.56%EV -11.59%E -3.41%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-05-17 02:50 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.35%EV -13.91%E -7.60%K -16.76%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.08%EV +1.09%E +0.290%K +0.396%G +0.004% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.56%EV -11.59%E -3.41%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-05-17 02:50 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 49.33%EV -16.27%E -9.14%K -20.86%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.06%EV -1.61%E -0.440%K -0.606%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.61%EV -14.19%E -4.30%K -6.17%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-05-17 02:55 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.34%EV -8.27%E -4.24%K -8.71%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -2.95%E -0.821%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV -3.79%E -1.03%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-17 07:19 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -8.27%E -4.24%K -8.71%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -2.95%E -0.821%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -6.39%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-17 07:20 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -8.27%E -4.24%K -8.71%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -2.95%E -0.821%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -6.39%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-17 07:20 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.82%EV -8.27%E -4.24%K -8.71%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.27%EV -4.30%E -1.21%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -6.39%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-17 07:46 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.18%EV -5.92%E -2.96%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.96%EV -5.65%E -1.61%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.85%EV -5.09%E -1.40%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-17 07:25 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.84%EV -5.92%E -2.96%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.77%EV -5.65%E -1.61%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.39%EV -7.69%E -2.17%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-17 07:29 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.84%EV -5.92%E -2.96%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.77%EV -5.65%E -1.61%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.39%EV -7.69%E -2.17%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-17 07:30 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 46.92%EV -6.86%E -3.46%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -5.65%E -1.61%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -8.99%E -2.57%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-17 07:40 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.99%EV -10.15%E -5.31%K -11.16%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -5.65%E -1.61%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.82%EV -7.69%E -2.17%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-17 07:20 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.10%EV -4.98%E -2.46%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 3.49I 28.65%NM 27.26%EV -5.92%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 3.71I 26.95%NM 25.64%EV -3.53%E -0.952%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-17 07:45 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.99I 50.25%NM 47.06%EV -6.39%E -3.21%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 3.46I 28.90%NM 27.07%EV -6.73%E -1.94%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 3.62I 27.62%NM 25.87%EV -5.87%E -1.62%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-17 07:46 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.66%EV -5.92%E -2.96%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.05%EV -7.00%E -2.03%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.29%EV -7.69%E -2.17%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-17 07:41 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.08%EV -6.86%E -3.46%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.02%EV -7.00%E -2.03%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.90%EV -6.39%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-17 07:35 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 47.32%EV -9.68%E -5.04%K -10.52%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.72%EV -8.35%E -2.45%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.96%EV -8.99%E -2.57%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-05-17 07:37 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 47.22%EV -10.62%E -5.59%K -11.80%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.39%EV -8.35%E -2.45%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.39%EV -11.59%E -3.41%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-05-17 07:20 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.25%EV -12.97%E -7.01%K -15.26%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -8.35%E -2.45%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -8.99%E -2.57%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-05-17 07:20 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.25%EV -12.97%E -7.01%K -15.26%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -8.35%E -2.45%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -8.99%E -2.57%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-05-17 07:21 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.04%EV -4.98%E -2.46%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.76%EV -9.69%E -2.89%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -7.69%E -2.17%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-17 07:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.04%EV -4.98%E -2.46%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.76%EV -9.69%E -2.89%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -7.69%E -2.17%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-17 07:25 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 46.44%EV -7.80%E -3.98%K -8.12%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.17%EV -9.69%E -2.89%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.38%EV -10.29%E -2.98%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-17 07:28 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.37%EV -8.27%E -4.24%K -8.71%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.99%EV -11.04%E -3.35%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.63%EV -2.49%E -0.665%K -0.906%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-17 07:25 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 47.02%EV -8.74%E -4.51%K -9.30%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.64%EV -11.04%E -3.35%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.34%EV -6.39%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-05-17 07:41 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -5.92%E -2.96%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -11.04%E -3.35%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -11.59%E -3.41%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-17 07:46 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -5.92%E -2.96%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -11.04%E -3.35%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -11.59%E -3.41%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-17 07:45 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -5.92%E -2.96%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -11.04%E -3.35%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -11.59%E -3.41%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-17 07:46 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -5.92%E -2.96%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -11.04%E -3.35%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -11.59%E -3.41%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-17 07:46 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.72%EV -10.15%E -5.31%K -11.16%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.04%EV -11.04%E -3.35%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.24%EV -11.59%E -3.41%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-05-17 07:40 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.72%EV -10.15%E -5.31%K -11.16%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.04%EV -11.04%E -3.35%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.24%EV -11.59%E -3.41%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-05-17 07:35 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.72%EV -10.15%E -5.31%K -11.16%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.04%EV -11.04%E -3.35%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.24%EV -11.59%E -3.41%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-05-17 07:40 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.72%EV -10.15%E -5.31%K -11.16%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.04%EV -11.04%E -3.35%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.24%EV -11.59%E -3.41%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-05-17 07:40 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 47.56%EV -12.50%E -6.72%K -14.54%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.80%EV -11.04%E -3.35%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.64%EV -10.29%E -2.98%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-05-17 07:40 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 46.20%EV -13.91%E -7.60%K -16.76%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 25.62%EV -11.04%E -3.35%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 28.18%EV -21.99%E -7.33%K -11.00%G +0.000% | 18.3% | 2026-05-17 07:21 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 45.63%EV -6.86%E -3.46%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.80%EV -12.39%E -3.81%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.57%EV -11.59%E -3.41%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-05-17 07:25 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 46.89%EV -11.56%E -6.15%K -13.14%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.55%EV -13.74%E -4.29%K -6.24%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.55%EV -10.29%E -2.98%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-05-17 07:35 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 46.44%EV -12.03%E -6.43%K -13.83%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.01%EV -16.43%E -5.30%K -7.83%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.54%EV -11.59%E -3.41%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 15.1% | 2026-05-17 07:41 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.40% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.65% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.95% | 1.4% | 2026-05-17 08:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.06I 48.54%NM 47.64% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.53% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.83% | 1.9% | 2026-05-17 08:21 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.06I 48.54%NM 47.64% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.53% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.83% | 1.9% | 2026-05-17 08:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.06I 48.54%NM 47.47% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.79% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.74% | 2.3% | 2026-05-17 08:20 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.04I 49.02%NM 47.55% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.58% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.87% | 3.1% | 2026-05-17 08:10 |