Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sturm Graz v Austria Lustenau

2026-08-22 17:30 UTC — Austrian Football Bundesliga

Head to Head

26 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sturm Graz (Local)

Prediction 73.00%1.37fair odd
EV -5.09%
Edge -3.92%
Kelly -16.98%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
70.45%72.96%73.01%74.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.201.251.251.3083.33%79.75%80.00%76.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Austria Lustenau (Visit)

Prediction 10.09%9.91fair odd
EV +13.04%
Edge +1.16%
Kelly +1.28%
Growth +0.167%

assuming max odds 11.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.36%10.07%10.07%11.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.258.979.0011.2013.79%11.15%11.11%8.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 16.90%5.92fair odd
EV -2.64%
Edge -0.458%
Kelly -0.554%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.76

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.33%16.97%16.92%18.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.755.295.335.7621.05%18.89%18.78%17.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Sturm Graz (Local): 73.00%; Austria Lustenau (Visit): 10.09%; Draw: 16.90%. For Austria Lustenau (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 9.91. 6 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 11.20, producing a positive expected value of +13.04%.

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.92%EV -8.75%E -7.00%K -34.98%G +0.000%11.20I 8.93%NM 8.36%EV +13.04%E +1.16%K +1.28%G +0.167%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.72%EV -5.34%E -0.954%K -1.16%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-16 14:25
Fanatics🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.27%EV -7.29%E -5.74%K -26.98%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.58%EV +11.02%E +1.00%K +1.10%G +0.121%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.15%EV -7.03%E -1.28%K -1.56%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-16 13:20
888sport🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 72.73%EV -8.75%E -7.00%K -34.98%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.09%EV +0.929%E +0.093%K +0.103%G +0.001%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -15.48%E -3.10%K -3.87%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-16 13:04
888sport (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 72.73%EV -8.75%E -7.00%K -34.98%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.09%EV +0.929%E +0.093%K +0.103%G +0.001%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -15.48%E -3.10%K -3.87%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-16 13:05
William Hill🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 72.73%EV -8.75%E -7.00%K -34.98%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.09%EV +0.929%E +0.093%K +0.103%G +0.001%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -15.48%E -3.10%K -3.87%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-16 13:04
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 72.73%EV -8.75%E -7.00%K -34.98%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.09%EV +0.929%E +0.093%K +0.103%G +0.001%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -15.48%E -3.10%K -3.87%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-16 13:05
Betr (AU)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.31%EV -6.56%E -5.12%K -23.41%G +0.000%9.75I 10.26%NM 9.62%EV -1.59%E -0.164%K -0.182%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.06%EV -7.03%E -1.28%K -1.56%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-16 14:15
Coolbet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.13%EV -6.56%E -5.12%K -23.41%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.85%EV -4.12%E -0.433%K -0.484%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.02%EV -7.03%E -1.28%K -1.56%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-16 14:14
FanDuel🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 73.87%EV -8.02%E -6.36%K -30.83%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.80%EV -4.12%E -0.433%K -0.484%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.33%EV -3.65%E -0.641%K -0.777%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-16 14:19
BoyleSports🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.06%EV -10.94%E -8.96%K -49.71%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.51%EV -4.12%E -0.433%K -0.484%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.43%EV -7.03%E -1.28%K -1.56%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-16 13:40
Codere (IT)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.13%EV -8.75%E -7.00%K -34.98%G +0.000%9.20I 10.87%NM 9.94%EV -7.15%E -0.777%K -0.871%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.93%EV -8.72%E -1.62%K -1.98%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-16 14:25
Pinnacle🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.20%EV -5.83%E -4.52%K -20.09%G +0.000%9.08I 11.01%NM 10.40%EV -8.36%E -0.920%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.76I 17.36%NM 16.39%EV -2.64%E -0.458%K -0.554%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-16 11:15
Unibet (UK)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 72.31%EV -7.29%E -5.74%K -26.98%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.20%EV -9.16%E -1.02%K -1.15%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.49%EV -11.26%E -2.14%K -2.65%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-16 14:35
Bet Right🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 72.31%EV -7.29%E -5.74%K -26.98%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.20%EV -9.16%E -1.02%K -1.15%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.49%EV -11.26%E -2.14%K -2.65%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-16 14:19
Bovada🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.20%EV -5.09%E -3.92%K -16.98%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.04%EV -14.21%E -1.67%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.76%EV -5.34%E -0.954%K -1.16%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-16 14:24
DraftKings🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.29%EV -6.56%E -5.12%K -23.41%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.89%EV -14.21%E -1.67%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.82%EV -7.03%E -1.28%K -1.56%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-16 11:54
theScore Bet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 72.92%EV -9.48%E -7.64%K -39.48%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.64%EV -14.21%E -1.67%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.44%EV -7.03%E -1.28%K -1.56%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-16 14:34
betfred_uk🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 71.58%EV -8.75%E -7.00%K -34.98%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.53%EV -14.21%E -1.67%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.89%EV -15.48%E -3.10%K -3.87%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-16 14:19
SportsBet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 72.89%EV -12.40%E -10.33%K -61.98%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.29%EV -14.21%E -1.67%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 16.82%EV -12.10%E -2.33%K -2.88%G +0.000%14.3%2026-08-16 14:19
Betclic (FR)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 72.24%EV -11.67%E -9.64%K -55.55%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.28%EV -14.21%E -1.67%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.48%EV -15.48%E -3.10%K -3.87%G +0.000%14.4%2026-08-16 14:23
BetOnline.ag🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 71.37%EV -6.56%E -5.12%K -23.41%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 11.71%EV -21.28%E -2.73%K -3.13%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.92%EV -8.72%E -1.62%K -1.98%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-16 12:50
LowVig.ag🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 71.37%EV -6.56%E -5.12%K -23.41%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 11.71%EV -21.28%E -2.73%K -3.13%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.92%EV -8.72%E -1.62%K -1.98%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-16 12:50
Suprabets🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 71.05%EV -8.75%E -7.00%K -34.98%G +0.000%7.70I 12.99%NM 11.53%EV -22.29%E -2.89%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.41%EV -13.79%E -2.70%K -3.36%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-16 11:20
Winamax (DE)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 71.40%EV -10.21%E -8.30%K -44.37%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.71%EV -24.30%E -3.24%K -3.74%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 16.89%EV -12.10%E -2.33%K -2.88%G +0.000%13.9%2026-08-16 14:34
Sky Bet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 70.45%EV -10.94%E -8.96%K -49.71%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.46%EV -24.30%E -3.24%K -3.74%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.09%EV -19.71%E -4.15%K -5.26%G +0.000%16.4%2026-08-16 13:09
Winamax (FR)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 70.81%EV -10.94%E -8.96%K -49.71%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 11.92%EV -26.83%E -3.70%K -4.29%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.28%EV -15.48%E -3.10%K -3.87%G +0.000%15.8%2026-08-16 14:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets1.21I 82.64%NM 70.59%7.60I 13.16%NM 11.24%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.17%17.1%2026-08-16 14:35

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