Language:English
Sturm Graz v Austria Lustenau
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Sturm Graz (Local)
Prediction 68.38%1.46fair odd
EV -4.26%
Edge -3.04%
Kelly -10.66%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.41%68.44%68.25%70.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.281.341.331.4078.13%74.88%75.19%71.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Austria Lustenau (Visit)
Prediction 12.96%7.72fair odd
EV +6.93%
Edge +0.840%
Kelly +0.956%
Growth +0.066%
assuming max odds 8.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.41%12.94%13.11%14.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.007.157.138.2516.67%13.99%14.04%12.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 18.65%5.36fair odd
EV +0.549%
Edge +0.102%
Kelly +0.125%
Growth +0.001%
assuming max odds 5.39
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.52%18.62%18.64%20.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.404.854.905.3922.73%20.62%20.41%18.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sturm Graz (Local): 68.38%; Austria Lustenau (Visit): 12.96%; Draw: 18.65%. For Austria Lustenau (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.72. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.93%.
Sportsbook Odds (50 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.75%EV -7.68%E -5.69%K -21.95%G +0.000% | 8.25I 12.12%NM 11.41%EV +6.93%E +0.840%K +0.956%G +0.066% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -6.73%E -1.35%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-22 07:59 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 70.18%EV -6.31%E -4.61%K -17.06%G +0.000% | 8.02I 12.47%NM 11.99%EV +3.95%E +0.492%K +0.563%G +0.022% | 5.39I 18.55%NM 17.84%EV +0.549%E +0.102%K +0.125%G +0.001% | 4.0% | 2026-08-22 14:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.66%EV -8.37%E -6.24%K -24.60%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.67%EV +3.69%E +0.461%K +0.527%G +0.019% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.67%EV -6.73%E -1.35%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-22 07:59 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 70.88%EV -10.42%E -7.95%K -33.60%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.61%EV +3.69%E +0.461%K +0.527%G +0.019% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.52%EV -1.13%E -0.213%K -0.263%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-22 07:59 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.35%EV -9.05%E -6.80%K -27.42%G +0.000% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 12.00%EV +1.10%E +0.141%K +0.161%G +0.002% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.65%EV -1.13%E -0.213%K -0.263%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-22 09:04 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.86%EV -7.00%E -5.15%K -19.44%G +0.000% | 7.55I 13.25%NM 12.40%EV -2.14%E -0.284%K -0.327%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.73%EV -6.73%E -1.35%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-22 08:50 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.63%E -4.08%K -14.82%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.60%EV -2.79%E -0.372%K -0.429%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.90%EV -6.73%E -1.35%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-22 08:00 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.02%EV -9.05%E -6.80%K -27.42%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.24%EV -2.79%E -0.372%K -0.429%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.74%EV -8.59%E -1.75%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-08-22 07:59 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 69.19%EV -9.73%E -7.37%K -30.42%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.18%EV -2.79%E -0.372%K -0.429%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.64%EV -8.59%E -1.75%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-19 08:44 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 69.19%EV -9.73%E -7.37%K -30.42%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.18%EV -2.79%E -0.372%K -0.429%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.64%EV -8.59%E -1.75%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-19 08:44 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 69.19%EV -9.73%E -7.37%K -30.42%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.18%EV -2.79%E -0.372%K -0.429%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.64%EV -8.59%E -1.75%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-19 08:44 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 69.19%EV -9.73%E -7.37%K -30.42%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.18%EV -2.79%E -0.372%K -0.429%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.64%EV -8.59%E -1.75%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-19 08:44 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 69.19%EV -9.73%E -7.37%K -30.42%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.18%EV -2.79%E -0.372%K -0.429%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.64%EV -8.59%E -1.75%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-19 08:43 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 69.19%EV -9.73%E -7.37%K -30.42%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.18%EV -2.79%E -0.372%K -0.429%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.64%EV -8.59%E -1.75%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-19 08:43 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 69.19%EV -9.73%E -7.37%K -30.42%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.18%EV -2.79%E -0.372%K -0.429%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.64%EV -8.59%E -1.75%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-19 08:44 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 69.19%EV -9.73%E -7.37%K -30.42%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.18%EV -2.79%E -0.372%K -0.429%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.64%EV -8.59%E -1.75%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-19 08:44 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.24%EV -11.10%E -8.54%K -37.00%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.00%EV -2.79%E -0.372%K -0.429%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.75%EV -10.46%E -2.18%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-08-19 08:43 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 68.68%EV -11.10%E -8.54%K -37.00%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.91%EV -2.79%E -0.372%K -0.429%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.41%EV -14.19%E -3.08%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-08-22 07:57 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 69.44%EV -12.47%E -9.74%K -44.53%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.85%EV -2.79%E -0.372%K -0.429%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.71%EV -11.39%E -2.40%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-08-19 08:44 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 69.44%EV -12.47%E -9.74%K -44.53%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.85%EV -2.79%E -0.372%K -0.429%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.71%EV -11.39%E -2.40%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-08-19 08:43 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 69.44%EV -12.47%E -9.74%K -44.53%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.85%EV -2.79%E -0.372%K -0.429%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.71%EV -11.39%E -2.40%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-08-19 08:43 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 69.44%EV -12.47%E -9.74%K -44.53%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.85%EV -2.79%E -0.372%K -0.429%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.71%EV -11.39%E -2.40%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-08-19 08:43 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.01%EV -5.63%E -4.08%K -14.82%G +0.000% | 7.30I 13.70%NM 12.67%EV -5.38%E -0.737%K -0.854%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 20.32%EV -15.12%E -3.32%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-22 15:15 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.01%EV -5.63%E -4.08%K -14.82%G +0.000% | 7.30I 13.70%NM 12.67%EV -5.38%E -0.737%K -0.854%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 20.32%EV -15.12%E -3.32%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-22 15:15 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.51%EV -7.00%E -5.15%K -19.44%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.85%EV -6.03%E -0.832%K -0.965%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.64%EV -6.73%E -1.35%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-22 08:19 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.04%EV -6.31%E -4.61%K -17.06%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.32%EV -9.27%E -1.32%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.64%EV -6.73%E -1.35%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-22 07:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 67.78%EV -6.31%E -4.61%K -17.06%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.27%EV -9.27%E -1.32%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.95%EV -8.59%E -1.75%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-22 14:04 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 67.78%EV -6.31%E -4.61%K -17.06%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.27%EV -9.27%E -1.32%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.95%EV -8.59%E -1.75%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-22 14:04 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.20%EV -7.00%E -5.15%K -19.44%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.25%EV -9.27%E -1.32%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.55%EV -6.73%E -1.35%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-22 08:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.36%EV -7.68%E -5.69%K -21.95%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.18%EV -9.27%E -1.32%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.46%EV -6.73%E -1.35%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-22 14:05 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 67.84%EV -7.68%E -5.69%K -21.95%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.08%EV -9.27%E -1.32%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.08%EV -10.46%E -2.18%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-22 08:45 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 68.68%EV -9.05%E -6.80%K -27.42%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.05%EV -9.27%E -1.32%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.27%EV -6.73%E -1.35%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-22 11:59 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 67.86%EV -8.37%E -6.24%K -24.60%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.99%EV -9.27%E -1.32%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.14%EV -11.39%E -2.40%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-08-22 08:17 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 68.16%EV -9.05%E -6.80%K -27.42%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.95%EV -9.27%E -1.32%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.89%EV -10.46%E -2.18%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-08-22 08:45 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 68.16%EV -9.05%E -6.80%K -27.42%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.95%EV -9.27%E -1.32%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.89%EV -10.46%E -2.18%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-08-22 08:44 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 68.16%EV -9.05%E -6.80%K -27.42%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.95%EV -9.27%E -1.32%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.89%EV -10.46%E -2.18%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-08-22 08:44 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 68.75%EV -10.42%E -7.95%K -33.60%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.87%EV -9.27%E -1.32%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.38%EV -8.59%E -1.75%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-08-22 12:00 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 68.52%EV -11.10%E -8.54%K -37.00%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.73%EV -9.27%E -1.32%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.75%EV -11.39%E -2.40%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-08-22 08:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 68.99%EV -12.47%E -9.74%K -44.53%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.61%EV -9.27%E -1.32%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.40%EV -10.46%E -2.18%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-08-22 14:34 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 68.30%EV -9.05%E -6.80%K -27.42%G +0.000% | 6.90I 14.49%NM 13.16%EV -10.57%E -1.53%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.54%EV -8.59%E -1.75%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-08-22 14:09 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 67.74%EV -8.37%E -6.24%K -24.60%G +0.000% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 13.35%EV -11.86%E -1.74%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.91%EV -10.46%E -2.18%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-08-22 12:04 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.71%EV -4.26%E -3.04%K -10.66%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.84%EV -12.51%E -1.85%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.46%EV -10.46%E -2.18%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-22 08:44 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 65.87%EV -5.63%E -4.08%K -14.82%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.47%EV -12.51%E -1.85%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.66%EV -17.92%E -4.07%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-08-22 15:15 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 68.08%EV -8.37%E -6.24%K -24.60%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.03%EV -15.75%E -2.42%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.89%EV -4.86%E -0.953%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-08-22 12:05 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 67.54%EV -9.73%E -7.37%K -30.42%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.26%EV -18.99%E -3.04%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.19%EV -8.59%E -1.75%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-08-22 11:59 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 65.41%EV -7.00%E -5.15%K -19.44%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.83%EV -22.23%E -3.71%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.77%EV -16.05%E -3.57%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-08-22 08:45 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 65.41%EV -7.00%E -5.15%K -19.44%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.83%EV -22.23%E -3.71%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.77%EV -16.05%E -3.57%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-08-22 08:43 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 65.41%EV -7.00%E -5.15%K -19.44%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.83%EV -22.23%E -3.71%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.77%EV -16.05%E -3.57%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-08-22 08:45 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 65.41%EV -7.00%E -5.15%K -19.44%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.83%EV -22.23%E -3.71%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.77%EV -16.05%E -3.57%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-08-22 08:44 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 66.59%EV -9.05%E -6.80%K -27.42%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.76%EV -22.23%E -3.71%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.65%EV -11.39%E -2.40%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-08-22 08:19 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 1.41I 70.92%NM 70.01% | 8.20I 12.20%NM 12.04% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.95% | 1.3% | 2026-08-22 14:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.41I 70.92%NM 70.01% | 8.20I 12.20%NM 12.04% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.95% | 1.3% | 2026-08-22 15:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.41I 70.92%NM 69.80% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 12.30% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.89% | 1.6% | 2026-08-22 15:20 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.40I 71.43%NM 70.16% | 8.20I 12.20%NM 11.98% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.86% | 1.8% | 2026-08-22 15:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.40I 71.43%NM 69.72% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 12.20% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.08% | 2.4% | 2026-08-22 15:00 |