Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rapid Wien v WSG Tirol

Kickoff: 2026-09-18 17:30 UTC

Final: Rapid Wien 3–0 WSG Tirol

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

51 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rapid Wien (Local)

Prediction 68.32%1.46fair odd
EV -4.35%
Edge -3.11%
Kelly -10.87%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.69%68.31%68.31%70.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.281.341.351.4078.13%74.41%74.07%71.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

WSG Tirol (Visit)

Prediction 13.85%7.22fair odd
EV +10.79%
Edge +1.35%
Kelly +1.54%
Growth +0.166%

assuming max odds 8.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.61%13.76%13.95%15.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.906.666.508.0016.95%15.01%15.38%12.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 17.83%5.61fair odd
EV -1.40%
Edge -0.254%
Kelly -0.309%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.95%17.93%17.74%20.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.504.995.005.5322.22%20.02%20.00%18.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Rapid Wien (Local): 68.32%; WSG Tirol (Visit): 13.85%; Draw: 17.83%. For WSG Tirol (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.22. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.79%.

Sportsbook Odds (51 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
FanDuel🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 70.88%EV -10.50%E -8.01%K -33.87%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.61%EV +10.79%E +1.35%K +1.54%G +0.166%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.52%EV -5.50%E -1.04%K -1.28%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-18 15:29
Pinnacle🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.84%EV -5.72%E -4.14%K -15.04%G +0.000%7.57I 13.21%NM 12.73%EV +4.83%E +0.638%K +0.736%G +0.036%5.53I 18.08%NM 17.43%EV -1.40%E -0.254%K -0.309%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-18 15:30
Betr (AU)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.15%EV -7.77%E -5.75%K -22.19%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.63%EV +3.86%E +0.515%K +0.594%G +0.023%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.22%EV -1.94%E -0.352%K -0.430%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-18 07:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.46%EV -9.13%E -6.87%K -27.67%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.50%EV +3.86%E +0.515%K +0.594%G +0.023%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -1.94%E -0.352%K -0.430%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-17 08:35
Coolbet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.28%EV -7.77%E -5.75%K -22.19%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.90%EV +0.401%E +0.055%K +0.064%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.82%EV -6.39%E -1.22%K -1.50%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-18 14:30
Tipico (DE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.10%EV -9.13%E -6.87%K -27.67%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 12.95%EV -0.291%E -0.040%K -0.047%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV -1.94%E -0.352%K -0.430%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-18 15:25
1xBet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.69%EV -7.08%E -5.21%K -19.67%G +0.000%7.19I 13.91%NM 12.99%EV -0.429%E -0.060%K -0.069%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.32%EV -9.07%E -1.78%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-18 15:30
DraftKings🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 69.21%EV -6.40%E -4.67%K -17.29%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.55%EV -3.06%E -0.437%K -0.510%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.24%EV -1.94%E -0.352%K -0.430%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-18 08:55
Bovada🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.69%EV -7.08%E -5.21%K -19.67%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -3.06%E -0.437%K -0.510%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.96%EV -7.29%E -1.40%K -1.73%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-18 06:54
LowVig.ag🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.08%EV -7.77%E -5.75%K -22.19%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.32%EV -3.06%E -0.437%K -0.510%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.60%EV -5.50%E -1.04%K -1.28%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-18 15:04
BetOnline.ag🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.08%EV -7.77%E -5.75%K -22.19%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.32%EV -3.06%E -0.437%K -0.510%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.60%EV -5.50%E -1.04%K -1.28%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-18 15:05
William Hill🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.36%EV -7.77%E -5.75%K -22.19%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.18%EV -3.06%E -0.437%K -0.510%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.46%EV -10.85%E -2.17%K -2.71%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-18 15:24
888sport (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.68%EV -9.13%E -6.87%K -27.67%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.05%EV -3.06%E -0.437%K -0.510%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.27%EV -10.85%E -2.17%K -2.71%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-18 15:19
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.68%EV -9.13%E -6.87%K -27.67%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.05%EV -3.06%E -0.437%K -0.510%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.27%EV -10.85%E -2.17%K -2.71%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-18 15:19
888sport🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.68%EV -9.13%E -6.87%K -27.67%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.05%EV -3.06%E -0.437%K -0.510%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.27%EV -10.85%E -2.17%K -2.71%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-18 15:20
Bet Right🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.68%EV -9.13%E -6.87%K -27.67%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.05%EV -3.06%E -0.437%K -0.510%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.27%EV -10.85%E -2.17%K -2.71%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-18 06:54
Sky Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 68.52%EV -11.18%E -8.60%K -37.27%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.73%EV -3.06%E -0.437%K -0.510%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.75%EV -15.31%E -3.22%K -4.08%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-18 15:30
SportsBet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 68.99%EV -12.55%E -9.80%K -44.81%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.61%EV -3.06%E -0.437%K -0.510%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.40%EV -14.42%E -3.00%K -3.79%G +0.000%13.2%2026-09-18 15:30
NordicBet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.72%EV -7.08%E -5.21%K -19.67%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.34%EV -5.83%E -0.857%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 19.94%EV -18.87%E -4.15%K -5.32%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-18 12:50
Betsson🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.72%EV -7.08%E -5.21%K -19.67%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.34%EV -5.83%E -0.857%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 19.94%EV -18.87%E -4.15%K -5.32%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-18 12:49
BetMGM🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.23%EV -4.35%E -3.11%K -10.87%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.94%EV -6.52%E -0.966%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.82%EV -10.85%E -2.17%K -2.71%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-18 07:55
PlayUp🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.50%EV -7.08%E -5.21%K -19.67%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.40%EV -6.52%E -0.966%K -1.13%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.10%EV -19.77%E -4.39%K -5.65%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-18 15:14
Suprabets🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 67.98%EV -8.45%E -6.31%K -24.85%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 13.80%EV -8.60%E -1.30%K -1.54%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.22%EV -10.85%E -2.17%K -2.71%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-18 12:56
Unibet (UK)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 67.95%EV -6.40%E -4.67%K -17.29%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.32%EV -9.98%E -1.54%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.73%EV -6.39%E -1.22%K -1.50%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-18 07:55
Fanatics🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.11%EV -7.08%E -5.21%K -19.67%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV -9.98%E -1.54%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.64%EV -6.39%E -1.22%K -1.50%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-18 06:55
theScore Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.11%EV -7.08%E -5.21%K -19.67%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV -9.98%E -1.54%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.64%EV -6.39%E -1.22%K -1.50%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-18 07:55
Betway🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.27%EV -7.77%E -5.75%K -22.19%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.18%EV -9.98%E -1.54%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.55%EV -6.39%E -1.22%K -1.50%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-18 14:50
Unibet (SE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 67.42%EV -7.77%E -5.75%K -22.19%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.00%EV -9.98%E -1.54%K -1.82%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.58%EV -12.63%E -2.58%K -3.24%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-14 03:54
Grosvenor🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 67.42%EV -7.77%E -5.75%K -22.19%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.00%EV -9.98%E -1.54%K -1.82%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.58%EV -12.63%E -2.58%K -3.24%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-14 04:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 67.42%EV -7.77%E -5.75%K -22.19%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.00%EV -9.98%E -1.54%K -1.82%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.58%EV -12.63%E -2.58%K -3.24%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-14 04:00
Unibet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 67.42%EV -7.77%E -5.75%K -22.19%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.00%EV -9.98%E -1.54%K -1.82%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.58%EV -12.63%E -2.58%K -3.24%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-14 04:00
Casumo🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 67.42%EV -7.77%E -5.75%K -22.19%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.00%EV -9.98%E -1.54%K -1.82%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.58%EV -12.63%E -2.58%K -3.24%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-14 04:00
ATG (SE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 67.42%EV -7.77%E -5.75%K -22.19%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.00%EV -9.98%E -1.54%K -1.82%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.58%EV -12.63%E -2.58%K -3.24%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-14 04:00
TABtouch🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 67.42%EV -7.77%E -5.75%K -22.19%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.00%EV -9.98%E -1.54%K -1.82%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.58%EV -12.63%E -2.58%K -3.24%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-14 04:05
Svenska Spel🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 67.42%EV -7.77%E -5.75%K -22.19%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.00%EV -9.98%E -1.54%K -1.82%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.58%EV -12.63%E -2.58%K -3.24%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-14 04:05
betfred_uk🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.00%EV -9.13%E -6.87%K -27.67%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.91%EV -9.98%E -1.54%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.09%EV -10.85%E -2.17%K -2.71%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-18 14:30
BetRivers🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 67.33%EV -8.45%E -6.31%K -24.85%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.88%EV -9.98%E -1.54%K -1.82%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.80%EV -14.42%E -3.00%K -3.79%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-14 03:54
LiveScore Bet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 67.38%EV -9.82%E -7.44%K -30.67%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 13.90%EV -11.37%E -1.78%K -2.11%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.72%EV -15.31%E -3.22%K -4.08%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-14 03:54
PMU (FR)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 67.38%EV -9.82%E -7.44%K -30.67%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 13.90%EV -11.37%E -1.78%K -2.11%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.72%EV -15.31%E -3.22%K -4.08%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-14 04:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 67.38%EV -9.82%E -7.44%K -30.67%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 13.90%EV -11.37%E -1.78%K -2.11%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.72%EV -15.31%E -3.22%K -4.08%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-14 04:00
Virgin Bet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 67.38%EV -9.82%E -7.44%K -30.67%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 13.90%EV -11.37%E -1.78%K -2.11%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.72%EV -15.31%E -3.22%K -4.08%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-14 04:05
Codere (IT)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 67.22%EV -7.77%E -5.75%K -22.19%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 14.64%EV -14.14%E -2.28%K -2.72%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.15%EV -10.85%E -2.17%K -2.71%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-18 15:30
Betclic (FR)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 67.14%EV -9.13%E -6.87%K -27.67%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.64%EV -15.52%E -2.54%K -3.04%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.22%EV -12.63%E -2.58%K -3.24%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-18 15:30
Unibet (FR)🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 67.47%EV -10.50%E -8.01%K -33.87%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.49%EV -15.52%E -2.54%K -3.04%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.04%EV -12.63%E -2.58%K -3.24%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-18 15:25
Winamax (DE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 67.58%EV -7.77%E -5.75%K -22.19%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.21%EV -16.91%E -2.82%K -3.38%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.21%EV -5.50%E -1.04%K -1.28%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-18 07:54
BoyleSports🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 67.22%EV -9.13%E -6.87%K -27.67%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.90%EV -16.91%E -2.82%K -3.38%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.88%EV -10.85%E -2.17%K -2.71%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-18 15:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.69%EV -7.08%E -5.21%K -19.67%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.89%EV -16.91%E -2.82%K -3.38%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.42%EV -17.98%E -3.91%K -5.00%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-18 07:55
Neds🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.69%EV -7.08%E -5.21%K -19.67%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.89%EV -16.91%E -2.82%K -3.38%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.42%EV -17.98%E -3.91%K -5.00%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-18 08:00
Coral🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.69%EV -7.08%E -5.21%K -19.67%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.89%EV -16.91%E -2.82%K -3.38%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.42%EV -17.98%E -3.91%K -5.00%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-18 07:58
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.69%EV -7.08%E -5.21%K -19.67%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.89%EV -16.91%E -2.82%K -3.38%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.42%EV -17.98%E -3.91%K -5.00%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-18 07:55
Winamax (FR)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 67.29%EV -9.13%E -6.87%K -27.67%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.17%EV -18.29%E -3.10%K -3.73%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.55%EV -9.07%E -1.78%K -2.21%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-18 07:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.39I 71.94%NM 71.12%8.80I 11.36%NM 11.23%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.65%1.2%2026-09-18 15:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.39I 71.94%NM 70.93%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.46%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.61%1.4%2026-09-18 15:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.39I 71.94%NM 70.93%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.46%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.61%1.4%2026-09-18 15:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.39I 71.94%NM 70.93%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.46%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.61%1.4%2026-09-18 15:20
Matchbook◎1.39I 71.94%NM 70.93%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.46%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.61%1.4%2026-09-18 15:20