Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Rapid Wien v WSG Tirol

Inicio: 2026-09-18 17:30 UTC

Final: Rapid Wien 3–0 WSG Tirol

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

51 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Rapid Wien (Local)

Predicción 68.32%1.46momio equitativo
EV -4.35%
Ventaja -3.11%
Kelly -10.87%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.40

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
65.69%68.31%68.31%70.88%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.281.341.351.4078.13%74.41%74.07%71.43%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

WSG Tirol (Visitante)

Predicción 13.85%7.22momio equitativo
EV +10.79%
Ventaja +1.35%
Kelly +1.54%
Crecimiento +0.166%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 8.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
11.61%13.76%13.95%15.21%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
5.906.666.508.0016.95%15.01%15.38%12.50%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 17.83%5.61momio equitativo
EV -1.40%
Ventaja -0.254%
Kelly -0.309%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.53

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
16.95%17.93%17.74%20.10%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.504.995.005.5322.22%20.02%20.00%18.08%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Rapid Wien (Local): 68.32%; WSG Tirol (Visitante): 13.85%; Empate: 17.83%. Para WSG Tirol (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 7.22. 5 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 8.00, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +10.79%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (51 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
FanDuel🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 70.88%EV -10.50%E -8.01%K -33.87%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.61%EV +10.79%E +1.35%K +1.54%G +0.166%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.52%EV -5.50%E -1.04%K -1.28%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-18 15:29
Pinnacle🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.84%EV -5.72%E -4.14%K -15.04%G +0.000%7.57I 13.21%NM 12.73%EV +4.83%E +0.638%K +0.736%G +0.036%5.53I 18.08%NM 17.43%EV -1.40%E -0.254%K -0.309%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-18 15:30
Betr (AU)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.15%EV -7.77%E -5.75%K -22.19%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.63%EV +3.86%E +0.515%K +0.594%G +0.023%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.22%EV -1.94%E -0.352%K -0.430%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-18 07:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.46%EV -9.13%E -6.87%K -27.67%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.50%EV +3.86%E +0.515%K +0.594%G +0.023%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -1.94%E -0.352%K -0.430%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-17 08:35
Coolbet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.28%EV -7.77%E -5.75%K -22.19%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.90%EV +0.401%E +0.055%K +0.064%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.82%EV -6.39%E -1.22%K -1.50%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-18 14:30
Tipico (DE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.10%EV -9.13%E -6.87%K -27.67%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 12.95%EV -0.291%E -0.040%K -0.047%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV -1.94%E -0.352%K -0.430%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-18 15:25
1xBet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.69%EV -7.08%E -5.21%K -19.67%G +0.000%7.19I 13.91%NM 12.99%EV -0.429%E -0.060%K -0.069%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.32%EV -9.07%E -1.78%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-18 15:30
DraftKings🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 69.21%EV -6.40%E -4.67%K -17.29%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.55%EV -3.06%E -0.437%K -0.510%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.24%EV -1.94%E -0.352%K -0.430%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-18 08:55
Bovada🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.69%EV -7.08%E -5.21%K -19.67%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -3.06%E -0.437%K -0.510%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.96%EV -7.29%E -1.40%K -1.73%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-18 06:54
LowVig.ag🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.08%EV -7.77%E -5.75%K -22.19%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.32%EV -3.06%E -0.437%K -0.510%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.60%EV -5.50%E -1.04%K -1.28%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-18 15:04
BetOnline.ag🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.08%EV -7.77%E -5.75%K -22.19%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.32%EV -3.06%E -0.437%K -0.510%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.60%EV -5.50%E -1.04%K -1.28%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-18 15:05
William Hill🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.36%EV -7.77%E -5.75%K -22.19%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.18%EV -3.06%E -0.437%K -0.510%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.46%EV -10.85%E -2.17%K -2.71%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-18 15:24
888sport (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.68%EV -9.13%E -6.87%K -27.67%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.05%EV -3.06%E -0.437%K -0.510%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.27%EV -10.85%E -2.17%K -2.71%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-18 15:19
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.68%EV -9.13%E -6.87%K -27.67%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.05%EV -3.06%E -0.437%K -0.510%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.27%EV -10.85%E -2.17%K -2.71%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-18 15:19
888sport🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.68%EV -9.13%E -6.87%K -27.67%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.05%EV -3.06%E -0.437%K -0.510%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.27%EV -10.85%E -2.17%K -2.71%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-18 15:20
Bet Right🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.68%EV -9.13%E -6.87%K -27.67%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.05%EV -3.06%E -0.437%K -0.510%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.27%EV -10.85%E -2.17%K -2.71%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-18 06:54
Sky Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 68.52%EV -11.18%E -8.60%K -37.27%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.73%EV -3.06%E -0.437%K -0.510%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.75%EV -15.31%E -3.22%K -4.08%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-18 15:30
SportsBet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 68.99%EV -12.55%E -9.80%K -44.81%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.61%EV -3.06%E -0.437%K -0.510%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.40%EV -14.42%E -3.00%K -3.79%G +0.000%13.2%2026-09-18 15:30
NordicBet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.72%EV -7.08%E -5.21%K -19.67%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.34%EV -5.83%E -0.857%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 19.94%EV -18.87%E -4.15%K -5.32%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-18 12:50
Betsson🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.72%EV -7.08%E -5.21%K -19.67%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.34%EV -5.83%E -0.857%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 19.94%EV -18.87%E -4.15%K -5.32%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-18 12:49
BetMGM🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.23%EV -4.35%E -3.11%K -10.87%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.94%EV -6.52%E -0.966%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.82%EV -10.85%E -2.17%K -2.71%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-18 07:55
PlayUp🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.50%EV -7.08%E -5.21%K -19.67%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.40%EV -6.52%E -0.966%K -1.13%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.10%EV -19.77%E -4.39%K -5.65%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-18 15:14
Suprabets🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 67.98%EV -8.45%E -6.31%K -24.85%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 13.80%EV -8.60%E -1.30%K -1.54%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.22%EV -10.85%E -2.17%K -2.71%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-18 12:56
Unibet (UK)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 67.95%EV -6.40%E -4.67%K -17.29%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.32%EV -9.98%E -1.54%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.73%EV -6.39%E -1.22%K -1.50%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-18 07:55
Fanatics🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.11%EV -7.08%E -5.21%K -19.67%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV -9.98%E -1.54%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.64%EV -6.39%E -1.22%K -1.50%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-18 06:55
theScore Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.11%EV -7.08%E -5.21%K -19.67%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV -9.98%E -1.54%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.64%EV -6.39%E -1.22%K -1.50%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-18 07:55
Betway🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.27%EV -7.77%E -5.75%K -22.19%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.18%EV -9.98%E -1.54%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.55%EV -6.39%E -1.22%K -1.50%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-18 14:50
Unibet (SE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 67.42%EV -7.77%E -5.75%K -22.19%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.00%EV -9.98%E -1.54%K -1.82%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.58%EV -12.63%E -2.58%K -3.24%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-14 03:54
Grosvenor🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 67.42%EV -7.77%E -5.75%K -22.19%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.00%EV -9.98%E -1.54%K -1.82%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.58%EV -12.63%E -2.58%K -3.24%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-14 04:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 67.42%EV -7.77%E -5.75%K -22.19%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.00%EV -9.98%E -1.54%K -1.82%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.58%EV -12.63%E -2.58%K -3.24%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-14 04:00
Unibet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 67.42%EV -7.77%E -5.75%K -22.19%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.00%EV -9.98%E -1.54%K -1.82%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.58%EV -12.63%E -2.58%K -3.24%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-14 04:00
Casumo🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 67.42%EV -7.77%E -5.75%K -22.19%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.00%EV -9.98%E -1.54%K -1.82%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.58%EV -12.63%E -2.58%K -3.24%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-14 04:00
ATG (SE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 67.42%EV -7.77%E -5.75%K -22.19%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.00%EV -9.98%E -1.54%K -1.82%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.58%EV -12.63%E -2.58%K -3.24%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-14 04:00
TABtouch🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 67.42%EV -7.77%E -5.75%K -22.19%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.00%EV -9.98%E -1.54%K -1.82%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.58%EV -12.63%E -2.58%K -3.24%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-14 04:05
Svenska Spel🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 67.42%EV -7.77%E -5.75%K -22.19%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.00%EV -9.98%E -1.54%K -1.82%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.58%EV -12.63%E -2.58%K -3.24%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-14 04:05
betfred_uk🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.00%EV -9.13%E -6.87%K -27.67%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.91%EV -9.98%E -1.54%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.09%EV -10.85%E -2.17%K -2.71%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-18 14:30
BetRivers🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 67.33%EV -8.45%E -6.31%K -24.85%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.88%EV -9.98%E -1.54%K -1.82%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.80%EV -14.42%E -3.00%K -3.79%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-14 03:54
LiveScore Bet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 67.38%EV -9.82%E -7.44%K -30.67%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 13.90%EV -11.37%E -1.78%K -2.11%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.72%EV -15.31%E -3.22%K -4.08%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-14 03:54
PMU (FR)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 67.38%EV -9.82%E -7.44%K -30.67%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 13.90%EV -11.37%E -1.78%K -2.11%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.72%EV -15.31%E -3.22%K -4.08%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-14 04:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 67.38%EV -9.82%E -7.44%K -30.67%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 13.90%EV -11.37%E -1.78%K -2.11%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.72%EV -15.31%E -3.22%K -4.08%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-14 04:00
Virgin Bet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 67.38%EV -9.82%E -7.44%K -30.67%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 13.90%EV -11.37%E -1.78%K -2.11%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.72%EV -15.31%E -3.22%K -4.08%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-14 04:05
Codere (IT)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 67.22%EV -7.77%E -5.75%K -22.19%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 14.64%EV -14.14%E -2.28%K -2.72%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.15%EV -10.85%E -2.17%K -2.71%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-18 15:30
Betclic (FR)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 67.14%EV -9.13%E -6.87%K -27.67%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.64%EV -15.52%E -2.54%K -3.04%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.22%EV -12.63%E -2.58%K -3.24%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-18 15:30
Unibet (FR)🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 67.47%EV -10.50%E -8.01%K -33.87%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.49%EV -15.52%E -2.54%K -3.04%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.04%EV -12.63%E -2.58%K -3.24%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-18 15:25
Winamax (DE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 67.58%EV -7.77%E -5.75%K -22.19%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.21%EV -16.91%E -2.82%K -3.38%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.21%EV -5.50%E -1.04%K -1.28%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-18 07:54
BoyleSports🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 67.22%EV -9.13%E -6.87%K -27.67%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.90%EV -16.91%E -2.82%K -3.38%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.88%EV -10.85%E -2.17%K -2.71%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-18 15:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.69%EV -7.08%E -5.21%K -19.67%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.89%EV -16.91%E -2.82%K -3.38%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.42%EV -17.98%E -3.91%K -5.00%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-18 07:55
Neds🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.69%EV -7.08%E -5.21%K -19.67%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.89%EV -16.91%E -2.82%K -3.38%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.42%EV -17.98%E -3.91%K -5.00%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-18 08:00
Coral🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.69%EV -7.08%E -5.21%K -19.67%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.89%EV -16.91%E -2.82%K -3.38%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.42%EV -17.98%E -3.91%K -5.00%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-18 07:58
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.69%EV -7.08%E -5.21%K -19.67%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.89%EV -16.91%E -2.82%K -3.38%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.42%EV -17.98%E -3.91%K -5.00%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-18 07:55
Winamax (FR)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 67.29%EV -9.13%E -6.87%K -27.67%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.17%EV -18.29%E -3.10%K -3.73%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.55%EV -9.07%E -1.78%K -2.21%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-18 07:54
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Smarkets◎1.39I 71.94%NM 71.12%8.80I 11.36%NM 11.23%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.65%1.2%2026-09-18 15:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.39I 71.94%NM 70.93%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.46%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.61%1.4%2026-09-18 15:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.39I 71.94%NM 70.93%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.46%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.61%1.4%2026-09-18 15:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.39I 71.94%NM 70.93%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.46%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.61%1.4%2026-09-18 15:20
Matchbook◎1.39I 71.94%NM 70.93%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.46%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.61%1.4%2026-09-18 15:20