Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hartberg v LASK

Kickoff: 2026-09-20 12:30 UTC

Final: Hartberg 3–3 LASK

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

50 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hartberg (Local)

Prediction 12.32%8.12fair odd
EV +11.00%
Edge +1.22%
Kelly +1.37%
Growth +0.151%

assuming max odds 9.01

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.69%12.47%12.32%14.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.007.548.009.0116.67%13.27%12.50%11.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

LASK (Visit)

Prediction 69.23%1.44fair odd
EV -5.16%
Edge -3.77%
Kelly -13.94%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.37

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.52%68.99%69.18%71.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.241.321.331.3780.65%75.92%75.19%72.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 18.45%5.42fair odd
EV -3.12%
Edge -0.594%
Kelly -0.734%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.37%18.53%18.51%21.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.304.945.005.2523.26%20.25%20.00%19.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hartberg (Local): 12.32%; LASK (Visit): 69.23%; Draw: 18.45%. For Hartberg (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.12. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 9.01, corresponding to a positive expected value of +11.00%.

Sportsbook Odds (50 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯9.01I 11.10%NM 10.69%EV +11.00%E +1.22%K +1.37%G +0.151%1.36I 73.53%NM 70.82%EV -5.85%E -4.30%K -16.25%G +0.000%5.21I 19.19%NM 18.49%EV -3.86%E -0.740%K -0.916%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-20 12:19
Betr (AU)🎯8.25I 12.12%NM 11.52%EV +1.64%E +0.198%K +0.226%G +0.004%1.35I 74.07%NM 70.38%EV -6.54%E -4.85%K -18.70%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV -3.12%E -0.594%K -0.734%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-20 12:09
1xBet🎯8.05I 12.42%NM 11.58%EV -0.827%E -0.103%K -0.117%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 69.58%EV -7.24%E -5.40%K -21.28%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.84%EV -8.66%E -1.75%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-20 12:22
DraftKings🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.79%EV -1.44%E -0.180%K -0.206%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 69.35%EV -5.85%E -4.30%K -16.25%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.86%EV -7.73%E -1.55%K -1.93%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-20 11:54
Coolbet🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.71%EV -1.44%E -0.180%K -0.206%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.44%EV -7.93%E -5.96%K -24.02%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.85%EV -3.12%E -0.594%K -0.734%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-20 12:09
Tipico (DE)🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.69%EV -1.44%E -0.180%K -0.206%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.32%EV -7.93%E -5.96%K -24.02%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.99%EV -4.04%E -0.777%K -0.962%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-20 12:23
Bovada🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.67%EV -1.44%E -0.180%K -0.206%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 69.66%EV -7.24%E -5.40%K -21.28%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.67%EV -7.73%E -1.55%K -1.93%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-20 12:24
BetOnline.ag🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.67%EV -1.44%E -0.180%K -0.206%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 69.66%EV -7.24%E -5.40%K -21.28%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.67%EV -7.73%E -1.55%K -1.93%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-20 12:24
LowVig.ag🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.67%EV -1.44%E -0.180%K -0.206%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 69.66%EV -7.24%E -5.40%K -21.28%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.67%EV -7.73%E -1.55%K -1.93%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-20 12:25
FanDuel🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.57%EV -1.44%E -0.180%K -0.206%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 70.64%EV -9.31%E -7.11%K -30.04%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.80%EV -4.04%E -0.777%K -0.962%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-20 12:19
William Hill🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.54%EV -1.44%E -0.180%K -0.206%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 68.39%EV -6.54%E -4.85%K -18.70%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.07%EV -15.11%E -3.29%K -4.20%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-20 12:19
Bet Right🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.49%EV -1.44%E -0.180%K -0.206%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 70.14%EV -9.31%E -7.11%K -30.04%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.38%EV -7.73%E -1.55%K -1.93%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-20 12:09
888sport🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -1.44%E -0.180%K -0.206%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 68.71%EV -7.93%E -5.96%K -24.02%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.87%EV -15.11%E -3.29%K -4.20%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-20 12:14
Mr Green (SE)🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -1.44%E -0.180%K -0.206%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 68.71%EV -7.93%E -5.96%K -24.02%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.87%EV -15.11%E -3.29%K -4.20%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-20 12:19
888sport (SE)🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -1.44%E -0.180%K -0.206%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 68.71%EV -7.93%E -5.96%K -24.02%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.87%EV -15.11%E -3.29%K -4.20%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-20 12:14
Suprabets🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.41%EV -1.44%E -0.180%K -0.206%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 69.16%EV -8.62%E -6.53%K -26.94%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.42%EV -13.27%E -2.82%K -3.59%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-20 11:58
Unibet (NL)🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.40%EV -1.44%E -0.180%K -0.206%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 71.23%EV -11.39%E -8.90%K -40.68%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.37%EV -3.12%E -0.594%K -0.734%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-20 12:04
Casumo🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.40%EV -1.44%E -0.180%K -0.206%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 71.23%EV -11.39%E -8.90%K -40.68%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.37%EV -3.12%E -0.594%K -0.734%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-20 12:04
Grosvenor🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.40%EV -1.44%E -0.180%K -0.206%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 71.23%EV -11.39%E -8.90%K -40.68%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.37%EV -3.12%E -0.594%K -0.734%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-20 12:04
Unibet🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.40%EV -1.44%E -0.180%K -0.206%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 71.23%EV -11.39%E -8.90%K -40.68%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.37%EV -3.12%E -0.594%K -0.734%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-20 12:04
Unibet (SE)🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.40%EV -1.44%E -0.180%K -0.206%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 71.23%EV -11.39%E -8.90%K -40.68%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.37%EV -3.12%E -0.594%K -0.734%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-20 12:04
TABtouch🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.40%EV -1.44%E -0.180%K -0.206%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 71.23%EV -11.39%E -8.90%K -40.68%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.37%EV -3.12%E -0.594%K -0.734%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-20 12:04
ATG (SE)🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.40%EV -1.44%E -0.180%K -0.206%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 71.23%EV -11.39%E -8.90%K -40.68%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.37%EV -3.12%E -0.594%K -0.734%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-20 12:04
Svenska Spel🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.40%EV -1.44%E -0.180%K -0.206%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 71.23%EV -11.39%E -8.90%K -40.68%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.37%EV -3.12%E -0.594%K -0.734%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-20 12:04
BetRivers🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.32%EV -1.44%E -0.180%K -0.206%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 71.28%EV -12.08%E -9.51%K -44.75%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.41%EV -4.04%E -0.777%K -0.962%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-20 12:04
Virgin Bet🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.09%EV -1.44%E -0.180%K -0.206%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 71.52%EV -14.16%E -11.42%K -58.99%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.39%EV -5.89%E -1.15%K -1.44%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-20 12:04
PMU (FR)🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.09%EV -1.44%E -0.180%K -0.206%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 71.52%EV -14.16%E -11.42%K -58.99%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.39%EV -5.89%E -1.15%K -1.44%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-20 12:04
LeoVegas (SE)🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.09%EV -1.44%E -0.180%K -0.206%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 71.52%EV -14.16%E -11.42%K -58.99%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.39%EV -5.89%E -1.15%K -1.44%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-20 12:04
LiveScore Bet🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.09%EV -1.44%E -0.180%K -0.206%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 71.52%EV -14.16%E -11.42%K -58.99%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.39%EV -5.89%E -1.15%K -1.44%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-20 12:04
Fanatics🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -7.60%E -1.01%K -1.17%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -7.93%E -5.96%K -24.02%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -7.73%E -1.55%K -1.93%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-20 12:04
Betway🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -7.60%E -1.01%K -1.17%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -7.93%E -5.96%K -24.02%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -7.73%E -1.55%K -1.93%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-20 12:19
betfred_uk🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV -7.60%E -1.01%K -1.17%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 69.77%EV -10.00%E -7.70%K -33.35%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.14%EV -7.73%E -1.55%K -1.93%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-20 12:09
NordicBet🎯7.30I 13.70%NM 12.40%EV -10.07%E -1.38%K -1.60%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 66.55%EV -5.85%E -4.30%K -16.25%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.05%EV -20.65%E -4.80%K -6.26%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-20 12:14
Betsson🎯7.30I 13.70%NM 12.40%EV -10.07%E -1.38%K -1.60%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 66.55%EV -5.85%E -4.30%K -16.25%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.05%EV -20.65%E -4.80%K -6.26%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-20 12:04
BetMGM🎯7.25I 13.79%NM 12.85%EV -10.68%E -1.47%K -1.71%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.51%EV -5.85%E -4.30%K -16.25%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.64%EV -7.73%E -1.55%K -1.93%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-20 12:24
SportsBet🎯7.25I 13.79%NM 12.19%EV -10.68%E -1.47%K -1.71%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 69.02%EV -11.39%E -8.90%K -40.68%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.80%EV -13.27%E -2.82%K -3.59%G +0.000%13.2%2026-09-20 12:14
Unibet (UK)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.44%EV -13.76%E -1.97%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 68.65%EV -5.16%E -3.77%K -13.94%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.91%EV -3.12%E -0.594%K -0.734%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-20 12:04
PlayUp🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 12.92%EV -13.76%E -1.97%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 66.52%EV -5.85%E -4.30%K -16.25%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.56%EV -18.80%E -4.27%K -5.53%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-20 12:25
BoyleSports🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 12.73%EV -13.76%E -1.97%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 68.52%EV -10.00%E -7.70%K -33.35%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.75%EV -12.35%E -2.60%K -3.29%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-20 11:59
Sky Bet🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 12.65%EV -13.76%E -1.97%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 68.10%EV -10.00%E -7.70%K -33.35%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.25%EV -15.11%E -3.29%K -4.20%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-20 11:59
Codere (IT)🎯6.60I 15.15%NM 13.82%EV -18.69%E -2.83%K -3.34%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 67.57%EV -6.54%E -4.85%K -18.70%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.61%EV -9.58%E -1.95%K -2.46%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-20 12:04
theScore Bet🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 13.91%EV -19.92%E -3.07%K -3.62%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 68.00%EV -7.93%E -5.96%K -24.02%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.09%EV -7.73%E -1.55%K -1.93%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-20 12:04
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 13.84%EV -19.92%E -3.07%K -3.62%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 66.61%EV -6.54%E -4.85%K -18.70%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.55%EV -15.11%E -3.29%K -4.20%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-20 12:24
Neds🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 13.84%EV -19.92%E -3.07%K -3.62%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 66.61%EV -6.54%E -4.85%K -18.70%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.55%EV -15.11%E -3.29%K -4.20%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-20 12:24
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 13.84%EV -19.92%E -3.07%K -3.62%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 66.61%EV -6.54%E -4.85%K -18.70%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.55%EV -15.11%E -3.29%K -4.20%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-20 12:24
Coral🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 13.84%EV -19.92%E -3.07%K -3.62%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 66.61%EV -6.54%E -4.85%K -18.70%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.55%EV -15.11%E -3.29%K -4.20%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-20 12:24
Unibet (FR)🎯6.30I 15.87%NM 13.96%EV -22.39%E -3.55%K -4.22%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 67.13%EV -9.31%E -7.11%K -30.04%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 18.91%EV -14.19%E -3.05%K -3.89%G +0.000%13.7%2026-09-20 12:04
Winamax (DE)🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 14.56%EV -23.00%E -3.68%K -4.38%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 67.93%EV -7.24%E -5.40%K -21.28%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.51%EV -4.04%E -0.777%K -0.962%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-20 12:04
Betclic (FR)🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 14.05%EV -23.00%E -3.68%K -4.38%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 67.05%EV -9.31%E -7.11%K -30.04%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 18.89%EV -14.19%E -3.05%K -3.89%G +0.000%13.8%2026-09-20 12:08
Winamax (FR)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 14.90%EV -26.08%E -4.35%K -5.22%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 67.22%EV -7.93%E -5.96%K -24.02%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.88%EV -7.73%E -1.55%K -1.93%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-20 12:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎9.40I 10.64%NM 10.59%1.39I 71.94%NM 71.63%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.78%0.4%2026-09-20 12:19
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎9.40I 10.64%NM 10.56%1.39I 71.94%NM 71.40%5.50I 18.18%NM 18.04%0.8%2026-09-20 12:19
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎9.40I 10.64%NM 10.56%1.39I 71.94%NM 71.40%5.50I 18.18%NM 18.04%0.8%2026-09-20 12:19
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎9.40I 10.64%NM 10.56%1.39I 71.94%NM 71.40%5.50I 18.18%NM 18.04%0.8%2026-09-20 12:24
Smarkets◎9.40I 10.64%NM 10.54%1.38I 72.46%NM 71.78%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.69%1.0%2026-09-20 12:14