Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Hartberg v LASK

Inicio: 2026-09-20 12:30 UTC

Final: Hartberg 3–3 LASK

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

50 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Hartberg (Local)

Predicción 12.32%8.12momio equitativo
EV +11.00%
Ventaja +1.22%
Kelly +1.37%
Crecimiento +0.151%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 9.01

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
10.69%12.47%12.32%14.90%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
6.007.548.009.0116.67%13.27%12.50%11.10%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

LASK (Visitante)

Predicción 69.23%1.44momio equitativo
EV -5.16%
Ventaja -3.77%
Kelly -13.94%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.37

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
66.52%68.99%69.18%71.52%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.241.321.331.3780.65%75.92%75.19%72.99%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 18.45%5.42momio equitativo
EV -3.12%
Ventaja -0.594%
Kelly -0.734%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.25

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
17.37%18.53%18.51%21.05%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.304.945.005.2523.26%20.25%20.00%19.05%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Hartberg (Local): 12.32%; LASK (Visitante): 69.23%; Empate: 18.45%. Para Hartberg (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 8.12. 2 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 9.01, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +11.00%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (50 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle🎯9.01I 11.10%NM 10.69%EV +11.00%E +1.22%K +1.37%G +0.151%1.36I 73.53%NM 70.82%EV -5.85%E -4.30%K -16.25%G +0.000%5.21I 19.19%NM 18.49%EV -3.86%E -0.740%K -0.916%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-20 12:19
Betr (AU)🎯8.25I 12.12%NM 11.52%EV +1.64%E +0.198%K +0.226%G +0.004%1.35I 74.07%NM 70.38%EV -6.54%E -4.85%K -18.70%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV -3.12%E -0.594%K -0.734%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-20 12:09
1xBet🎯8.05I 12.42%NM 11.58%EV -0.827%E -0.103%K -0.117%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 69.58%EV -7.24%E -5.40%K -21.28%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.84%EV -8.66%E -1.75%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-20 12:22
DraftKings🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.79%EV -1.44%E -0.180%K -0.206%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 69.35%EV -5.85%E -4.30%K -16.25%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.86%EV -7.73%E -1.55%K -1.93%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-20 11:54
Coolbet🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.71%EV -1.44%E -0.180%K -0.206%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.44%EV -7.93%E -5.96%K -24.02%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.85%EV -3.12%E -0.594%K -0.734%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-20 12:09
Tipico (DE)🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.69%EV -1.44%E -0.180%K -0.206%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.32%EV -7.93%E -5.96%K -24.02%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.99%EV -4.04%E -0.777%K -0.962%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-20 12:23
Bovada🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.67%EV -1.44%E -0.180%K -0.206%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 69.66%EV -7.24%E -5.40%K -21.28%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.67%EV -7.73%E -1.55%K -1.93%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-20 12:24
BetOnline.ag🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.67%EV -1.44%E -0.180%K -0.206%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 69.66%EV -7.24%E -5.40%K -21.28%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.67%EV -7.73%E -1.55%K -1.93%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-20 12:24
LowVig.ag🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.67%EV -1.44%E -0.180%K -0.206%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 69.66%EV -7.24%E -5.40%K -21.28%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.67%EV -7.73%E -1.55%K -1.93%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-20 12:25
FanDuel🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.57%EV -1.44%E -0.180%K -0.206%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 70.64%EV -9.31%E -7.11%K -30.04%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.80%EV -4.04%E -0.777%K -0.962%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-20 12:19
William Hill🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.54%EV -1.44%E -0.180%K -0.206%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 68.39%EV -6.54%E -4.85%K -18.70%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.07%EV -15.11%E -3.29%K -4.20%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-20 12:19
Bet Right🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.49%EV -1.44%E -0.180%K -0.206%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 70.14%EV -9.31%E -7.11%K -30.04%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.38%EV -7.73%E -1.55%K -1.93%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-20 12:09
888sport🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -1.44%E -0.180%K -0.206%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 68.71%EV -7.93%E -5.96%K -24.02%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.87%EV -15.11%E -3.29%K -4.20%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-20 12:14
Mr Green (SE)🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -1.44%E -0.180%K -0.206%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 68.71%EV -7.93%E -5.96%K -24.02%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.87%EV -15.11%E -3.29%K -4.20%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-20 12:19
888sport (SE)🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -1.44%E -0.180%K -0.206%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 68.71%EV -7.93%E -5.96%K -24.02%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.87%EV -15.11%E -3.29%K -4.20%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-20 12:14
Suprabets🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.41%EV -1.44%E -0.180%K -0.206%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 69.16%EV -8.62%E -6.53%K -26.94%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.42%EV -13.27%E -2.82%K -3.59%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-20 11:58
Unibet (NL)🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.40%EV -1.44%E -0.180%K -0.206%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 71.23%EV -11.39%E -8.90%K -40.68%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.37%EV -3.12%E -0.594%K -0.734%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-20 12:04
Casumo🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.40%EV -1.44%E -0.180%K -0.206%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 71.23%EV -11.39%E -8.90%K -40.68%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.37%EV -3.12%E -0.594%K -0.734%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-20 12:04
Grosvenor🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.40%EV -1.44%E -0.180%K -0.206%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 71.23%EV -11.39%E -8.90%K -40.68%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.37%EV -3.12%E -0.594%K -0.734%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-20 12:04
Unibet🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.40%EV -1.44%E -0.180%K -0.206%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 71.23%EV -11.39%E -8.90%K -40.68%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.37%EV -3.12%E -0.594%K -0.734%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-20 12:04
Unibet (SE)🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.40%EV -1.44%E -0.180%K -0.206%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 71.23%EV -11.39%E -8.90%K -40.68%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.37%EV -3.12%E -0.594%K -0.734%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-20 12:04
TABtouch🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.40%EV -1.44%E -0.180%K -0.206%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 71.23%EV -11.39%E -8.90%K -40.68%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.37%EV -3.12%E -0.594%K -0.734%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-20 12:04
ATG (SE)🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.40%EV -1.44%E -0.180%K -0.206%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 71.23%EV -11.39%E -8.90%K -40.68%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.37%EV -3.12%E -0.594%K -0.734%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-20 12:04
Svenska Spel🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.40%EV -1.44%E -0.180%K -0.206%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 71.23%EV -11.39%E -8.90%K -40.68%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.37%EV -3.12%E -0.594%K -0.734%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-20 12:04
BetRivers🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.32%EV -1.44%E -0.180%K -0.206%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 71.28%EV -12.08%E -9.51%K -44.75%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.41%EV -4.04%E -0.777%K -0.962%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-20 12:04
Virgin Bet🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.09%EV -1.44%E -0.180%K -0.206%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 71.52%EV -14.16%E -11.42%K -58.99%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.39%EV -5.89%E -1.15%K -1.44%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-20 12:04
PMU (FR)🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.09%EV -1.44%E -0.180%K -0.206%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 71.52%EV -14.16%E -11.42%K -58.99%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.39%EV -5.89%E -1.15%K -1.44%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-20 12:04
LeoVegas (SE)🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.09%EV -1.44%E -0.180%K -0.206%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 71.52%EV -14.16%E -11.42%K -58.99%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.39%EV -5.89%E -1.15%K -1.44%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-20 12:04
LiveScore Bet🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.09%EV -1.44%E -0.180%K -0.206%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 71.52%EV -14.16%E -11.42%K -58.99%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.39%EV -5.89%E -1.15%K -1.44%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-20 12:04
Fanatics🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -7.60%E -1.01%K -1.17%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -7.93%E -5.96%K -24.02%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -7.73%E -1.55%K -1.93%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-20 12:04
Betway🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -7.60%E -1.01%K -1.17%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -7.93%E -5.96%K -24.02%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -7.73%E -1.55%K -1.93%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-20 12:19
betfred_uk🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV -7.60%E -1.01%K -1.17%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 69.77%EV -10.00%E -7.70%K -33.35%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.14%EV -7.73%E -1.55%K -1.93%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-20 12:09
NordicBet🎯7.30I 13.70%NM 12.40%EV -10.07%E -1.38%K -1.60%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 66.55%EV -5.85%E -4.30%K -16.25%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.05%EV -20.65%E -4.80%K -6.26%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-20 12:14
Betsson🎯7.30I 13.70%NM 12.40%EV -10.07%E -1.38%K -1.60%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 66.55%EV -5.85%E -4.30%K -16.25%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.05%EV -20.65%E -4.80%K -6.26%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-20 12:04
BetMGM🎯7.25I 13.79%NM 12.85%EV -10.68%E -1.47%K -1.71%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.51%EV -5.85%E -4.30%K -16.25%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.64%EV -7.73%E -1.55%K -1.93%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-20 12:24
SportsBet🎯7.25I 13.79%NM 12.19%EV -10.68%E -1.47%K -1.71%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 69.02%EV -11.39%E -8.90%K -40.68%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.80%EV -13.27%E -2.82%K -3.59%G +0.000%13.2%2026-09-20 12:14
Unibet (UK)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.44%EV -13.76%E -1.97%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 68.65%EV -5.16%E -3.77%K -13.94%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.91%EV -3.12%E -0.594%K -0.734%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-20 12:04
PlayUp🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 12.92%EV -13.76%E -1.97%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 66.52%EV -5.85%E -4.30%K -16.25%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.56%EV -18.80%E -4.27%K -5.53%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-20 12:25
BoyleSports🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 12.73%EV -13.76%E -1.97%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 68.52%EV -10.00%E -7.70%K -33.35%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.75%EV -12.35%E -2.60%K -3.29%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-20 11:59
Sky Bet🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 12.65%EV -13.76%E -1.97%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 68.10%EV -10.00%E -7.70%K -33.35%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.25%EV -15.11%E -3.29%K -4.20%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-20 11:59
Codere (IT)🎯6.60I 15.15%NM 13.82%EV -18.69%E -2.83%K -3.34%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 67.57%EV -6.54%E -4.85%K -18.70%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.61%EV -9.58%E -1.95%K -2.46%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-20 12:04
theScore Bet🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 13.91%EV -19.92%E -3.07%K -3.62%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 68.00%EV -7.93%E -5.96%K -24.02%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.09%EV -7.73%E -1.55%K -1.93%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-20 12:04
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 13.84%EV -19.92%E -3.07%K -3.62%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 66.61%EV -6.54%E -4.85%K -18.70%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.55%EV -15.11%E -3.29%K -4.20%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-20 12:24
Neds🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 13.84%EV -19.92%E -3.07%K -3.62%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 66.61%EV -6.54%E -4.85%K -18.70%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.55%EV -15.11%E -3.29%K -4.20%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-20 12:24
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 13.84%EV -19.92%E -3.07%K -3.62%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 66.61%EV -6.54%E -4.85%K -18.70%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.55%EV -15.11%E -3.29%K -4.20%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-20 12:24
Coral🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 13.84%EV -19.92%E -3.07%K -3.62%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 66.61%EV -6.54%E -4.85%K -18.70%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.55%EV -15.11%E -3.29%K -4.20%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-20 12:24
Unibet (FR)🎯6.30I 15.87%NM 13.96%EV -22.39%E -3.55%K -4.22%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 67.13%EV -9.31%E -7.11%K -30.04%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 18.91%EV -14.19%E -3.05%K -3.89%G +0.000%13.7%2026-09-20 12:04
Winamax (DE)🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 14.56%EV -23.00%E -3.68%K -4.38%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 67.93%EV -7.24%E -5.40%K -21.28%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.51%EV -4.04%E -0.777%K -0.962%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-20 12:04
Betclic (FR)🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 14.05%EV -23.00%E -3.68%K -4.38%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 67.05%EV -9.31%E -7.11%K -30.04%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 18.89%EV -14.19%E -3.05%K -3.89%G +0.000%13.8%2026-09-20 12:08
Winamax (FR)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 14.90%EV -26.08%E -4.35%K -5.22%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 67.22%EV -7.93%E -5.96%K -24.02%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.88%EV -7.73%E -1.55%K -1.93%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-20 12:04
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook◎9.40I 10.64%NM 10.59%1.39I 71.94%NM 71.63%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.78%0.4%2026-09-20 12:19
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎9.40I 10.64%NM 10.56%1.39I 71.94%NM 71.40%5.50I 18.18%NM 18.04%0.8%2026-09-20 12:19
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎9.40I 10.64%NM 10.56%1.39I 71.94%NM 71.40%5.50I 18.18%NM 18.04%0.8%2026-09-20 12:19
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎9.40I 10.64%NM 10.56%1.39I 71.94%NM 71.40%5.50I 18.18%NM 18.04%0.8%2026-09-20 12:24
Smarkets◎9.40I 10.64%NM 10.54%1.38I 72.46%NM 71.78%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.69%1.0%2026-09-20 12:14