Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Grazer AK v Austria Lustenau

Kickoff: 2026-08-08 15:00 UTC

Final: Grazer AK 2–1 Austria Lustenau

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

49 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Grazer AK (Local)

Prediction 49.46%2.02fair odd
EV -5.54%
Edge -2.90%
Kelly -6.09%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.00%49.55%49.44%52.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.761.861.871.9156.82%53.76%53.48%52.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Austria Lustenau (Visit)

Prediction 23.44%4.27fair odd
EV +6.42%
Edge +1.41%
Kelly +1.81%
Growth +0.116%

assuming max odds 4.54

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.13%23.34%23.42%24.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.883.804.5427.78%25.78%26.32%22.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.10%3.69fair odd
EV -2.42%
Edge -0.673%
Kelly -0.932%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.19%27.11%27.13%27.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.383.403.6031.25%29.61%29.41%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Grazer AK (Local): 49.46%; Austria Lustenau (Visit): 23.44%; Draw: 27.10%. For Austria Lustenau (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.27. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.54, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.42%.

Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 52.14%EV -9.00%E -4.89%K -10.72%G +0.000%4.54I 22.03%NM 21.13%EV +6.42%E +1.41%K +1.81%G +0.116%3.59I 27.86%NM 26.72%EV -2.70%E -0.751%K -1.04%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-08 14:54
Pinnacle🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.89%EV -6.03%E -3.18%K -6.71%G +0.000%4.39I 22.78%NM 22.03%EV +2.90%E +0.661%K +0.856%G +0.025%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.08%EV -3.24%E -0.907%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-08 14:45
LowVig.ag🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.38%EV -7.52%E -4.02%K -8.64%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.91%EV +0.792%E +0.184%K +0.240%G +0.002%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV -7.85%E -2.31%K -3.27%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-08 14:44
BetOnline.ag🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.38%EV -7.52%E -4.02%K -8.64%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.91%EV +0.792%E +0.184%K +0.240%G +0.002%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV -7.85%E -2.31%K -3.27%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-08 14:44
FanDuel🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.06%EV -9.50%E -5.19%K -11.44%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.25%EV -1.55%E -0.369%K -0.485%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -5.13%E -1.47%K -2.05%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-08 14:39
Tipico (DE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.06%EV -9.50%E -5.19%K -11.44%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.25%EV -1.55%E -0.369%K -0.485%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -5.13%E -1.47%K -2.05%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-08 14:39
DraftKings🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.24%EV -7.52%E -4.02%K -8.64%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.92%EV -3.90%E -0.950%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.84%EV -5.13%E -1.47%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-08 14:45
Bovada🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.63%EV -7.02%E -3.74%K -7.98%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -6.24%E -1.56%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.04%EV -6.49%E -1.88%K -2.65%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-08 14:44
Unibet (UK)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.43%EV -7.02%E -3.74%K -7.98%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -6.24%E -1.56%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -7.85%E -2.31%K -3.27%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-08 14:44
Betway🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.84%EV -8.51%E -4.60%K -10.01%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -6.24%E -1.56%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%EV -7.85%E -2.31%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-08 14:45
888sport🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.43%EV -8.51%E -4.60%K -10.01%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -6.24%E -1.56%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -10.56%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-08 14:54
William Hill🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.43%EV -8.51%E -4.60%K -10.01%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -6.24%E -1.56%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -10.56%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-08 14:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.43%EV -8.51%E -4.60%K -10.01%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -6.24%E -1.56%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -10.56%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-08 14:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.43%EV -8.51%E -4.60%K -10.01%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -6.24%E -1.56%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -10.56%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-08 14:54
Suprabets🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 49.86%EV -9.99%E -5.49%K -12.18%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 22.80%EV -6.71%E -1.69%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 27.33%EV -10.01%E -3.02%K -4.32%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-08 14:42
Betsson🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.48%EV -7.02%E -3.74%K -7.98%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.55%EV -7.41%E -1.88%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.96%EV -6.49%E -1.88%K -2.65%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-08 14:50
NordicBet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.48%EV -7.02%E -3.74%K -7.98%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.55%EV -7.41%E -1.88%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.96%EV -6.49%E -1.88%K -2.65%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-08 14:49
Betr (AU)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.63%EV -6.03%E -3.18%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.18%EV -8.58%E -2.20%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.19%EV -2.42%E -0.673%K -0.932%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-08 14:24
theScore Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.74%EV -5.54%E -2.90%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -8.58%E -2.20%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.38%EV -7.85%E -2.31%K -3.27%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-08 14:44
BetMGM🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.74%EV -5.54%E -2.90%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -8.58%E -2.20%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.38%EV -7.85%E -2.31%K -3.27%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-08 14:20
Sky Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.62%EV -10.98%E -6.10%K -13.73%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.90%EV -8.58%E -2.20%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.48%EV -11.91%E -3.66%K -5.29%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-08 14:40
Betclic (FR)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 49.34%EV -10.49%E -5.79%K -12.95%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 23.02%EV -9.05%E -2.33%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 27.65%EV -12.45%E -3.86%K -5.58%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-08 14:44
Coolbet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.11%EV -6.03%E -3.18%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.23%EV -9.76%E -2.53%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.66%EV -5.13%E -1.47%K -2.05%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-08 14:25
Codere (IT)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.19%EV -8.51%E -4.60%K -10.01%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.64%EV -9.76%E -2.53%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.17%EV -9.20%E -2.75%K -3.92%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-08 14:44
Fanatics🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.44%EV -5.54%E -2.90%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -10.93%E -2.88%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.21%EV -7.85%E -2.31%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-08 14:20
Bet Right🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.84%EV -7.02%E -3.74%K -7.98%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -10.93%E -2.88%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.00%EV -7.85%E -2.31%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-08 14:24
Winamax (DE)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 49.57%EV -9.00%E -4.89%K -10.72%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -10.93%E -2.88%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.43%EV -6.49%E -1.88%K -2.65%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-08 14:45
SportsBet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 49.67%EV -12.96%E -7.36%K -17.05%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.01%EV -10.93%E -2.88%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.32%EV -13.27%E -4.15%K -6.03%G +0.000%14.4%2026-08-08 14:44
Unibet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.41%EV -6.03%E -3.18%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -12.10%E -3.23%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -7.85%E -2.31%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-08 14:19
Unibet (NL)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 48.55%EV -6.53%E -3.45%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.47%EV -12.10%E -3.23%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -7.85%E -2.31%K -3.27%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-08 14:20
Casumo🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 48.55%EV -6.53%E -3.45%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.47%EV -12.10%E -3.23%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -7.85%E -2.31%K -3.27%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-08 14:19
Grosvenor🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 48.55%EV -6.53%E -3.45%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.47%EV -12.10%E -3.23%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -7.85%E -2.31%K -3.27%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-08 14:20
TABtouch🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 48.55%EV -6.53%E -3.45%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.47%EV -12.10%E -3.23%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -7.85%E -2.31%K -3.27%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-08 14:19
BetRivers🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 48.55%EV -6.53%E -3.45%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.47%EV -12.10%E -3.23%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -7.85%E -2.31%K -3.27%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-08 14:19
Unibet (SE)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 48.55%EV -6.53%E -3.45%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.47%EV -12.10%E -3.23%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -7.85%E -2.31%K -3.27%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-08 14:20
Svenska Spel🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 48.55%EV -6.53%E -3.45%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.47%EV -12.10%E -3.23%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -7.85%E -2.31%K -3.27%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-08 14:20
ATG (SE)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 48.55%EV -6.53%E -3.45%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.47%EV -12.10%E -3.23%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -7.85%E -2.31%K -3.27%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-08 14:19
PlayUp🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.42%EV -7.52%E -4.02%K -8.64%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.14%EV -12.10%E -3.23%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.44%EV -10.56%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-08 14:49
betfred_uk🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.96%EV -9.50%E -5.19%K -11.44%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.89%EV -12.10%E -3.23%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.15%EV -10.56%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-08 14:24
Unibet (FR)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 49.59%EV -12.46%E -7.04%K -16.19%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.41%EV -12.10%E -3.23%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.01%EV -11.91%E -3.66%K -5.29%G +0.000%13.9%2026-08-08 14:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.46%EV -7.52%E -4.02%K -8.64%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.49%EV -13.27%E -3.59%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.05%EV -9.20%E -2.75%K -3.92%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-08 14:19
LiveScore Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.46%EV -7.52%E -4.02%K -8.64%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.49%EV -13.27%E -3.59%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.05%EV -9.20%E -2.75%K -3.92%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-08 14:20
Virgin Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.46%EV -7.52%E -4.02%K -8.64%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.49%EV -13.27%E -3.59%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.05%EV -9.20%E -2.75%K -3.92%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-08 14:19
Winamax (FR)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 49.14%EV -9.99%E -5.49%K -12.18%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.17%EV -13.27%E -3.59%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.69%EV -9.20%E -2.75%K -3.92%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-08 14:44
Neds🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.00%EV -8.51%E -4.60%K -10.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.67%EV -15.62%E -4.34%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.33%EV -11.91%E -3.66%K -5.29%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-08 14:19
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.00%EV -8.51%E -4.60%K -10.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.67%EV -15.62%E -4.34%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.33%EV -11.91%E -3.66%K -5.29%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-08 14:20
Coral🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.00%EV -8.51%E -4.60%K -10.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.67%EV -15.62%E -4.34%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.33%EV -11.91%E -3.66%K -5.29%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-08 14:19
BoyleSports🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 48.89%EV -10.98%E -6.10%K -13.73%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.44%EV -15.62%E -4.34%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.67%EV -10.56%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000%13.6%2026-08-08 14:24
PMU (FR)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 48.55%EV -10.49%E -5.79%K -12.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.41%EV -15.62%E -4.34%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.04%EV -11.91%E -3.66%K -5.29%G +0.000%13.8%2026-08-08 14:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.96I 51.02%NM 50.63%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.55%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.82%0.8%2026-08-08 14:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.96I 51.02%NM 50.63%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.55%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.82%0.8%2026-08-08 14:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.95I 51.28%NM 50.76%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.49%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.75%1.0%2026-08-08 14:55
Matchbook1.96I 51.02%NM 50.44%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.47%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.09%1.1%2026-08-08 14:55
Smarkets1.94I 51.55%NM 50.70%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.35%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.95%1.7%2026-08-08 14:55

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