Language:English
Newcastle Jets FC v Sydney FC
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Newcastle Jets FC (Local)
Prediction 41.35%2.42fair odd
EV -2.83%
Edge -1.21%
Kelly -2.10%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.35
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.39%41.37%41.37%43.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.042.212.212.3549.02%45.20%45.15%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Sydney FC (Visit)
Prediction 32.36%3.09fair odd
EV -1.31%
Edge -0.429%
Kelly -0.639%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.05
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.52%32.39%32.31%33.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.882.903.0538.46%34.75%34.48%32.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 26.29%3.80fair odd
EV +1.23%
Edge +0.320%
Kelly +0.433%
Growth +0.005%
assuming max odds 3.85
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.92%26.23%26.33%27.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.583.603.8532.26%27.94%27.78%25.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Newcastle Jets FC (Local): 41.35%; Sydney FC (Visit): 32.36%; Draw: 26.29%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.80. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.85, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.23%.
Sportsbook Odds (48 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 43.28%EV -7.79%E -3.49%K -6.34%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.65%EV -1.31%E -0.429%K -0.639%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.07%EV +1.23%E +0.320%K +0.433%G +0.005% | 3.6% | 2026-05-16 09:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.10%EV -9.86%E -4.52%K -8.36%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.85%EV -4.55%E -1.54%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.05%EV -1.40%E -0.372%K -0.508%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-16 08:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.10%EV -9.86%E -4.52%K -8.36%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.85%EV -4.55%E -1.54%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.05%EV -1.40%E -0.372%K -0.508%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-16 08:55 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 41.51%EV -3.66%E -1.57%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 2.99I 33.44%NM 32.35%EV -3.25%E -1.09%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.14%EV -2.71%E -0.733%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-05-16 09:35 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 41.12%EV -2.83%E -1.21%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.76%EV -4.55%E -1.54%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.12%EV -2.71%E -0.733%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-05-16 08:05 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 41.12%EV -2.83%E -1.21%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.76%EV -4.55%E -1.54%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.12%EV -2.71%E -0.733%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-05-16 08:05 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 42.08%EV -5.73%E -2.51%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.98%EV -2.93%E -0.976%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.93%EV -2.71%E -0.733%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-16 09:15 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.06%EV -10.27%E -4.73%K -8.78%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.68%EV -4.55%E -1.54%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.26%EV -2.71%E -0.733%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-16 09:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.29%EV -11.10%E -5.16%K -9.65%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.55%EV -4.55%E -1.54%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.16%EV -2.71%E -0.733%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-16 08:55 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.29%EV -11.10%E -5.16%K -9.65%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.55%EV -4.55%E -1.54%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.16%EV -2.71%E -0.733%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-16 08:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.29%EV -11.10%E -5.16%K -9.65%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.55%EV -4.55%E -1.54%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.16%EV -2.71%E -0.733%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-16 08:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.29%EV -11.10%E -5.16%K -9.65%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.55%EV -4.55%E -1.54%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.16%EV -2.71%E -0.733%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-16 08:55 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.29%EV -11.10%E -5.16%K -9.65%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.55%EV -4.55%E -1.54%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.16%EV -2.71%E -0.733%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-16 08:55 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.29%EV -11.10%E -5.16%K -9.65%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.55%EV -4.55%E -1.54%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.16%EV -2.71%E -0.733%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-16 09:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.29%EV -11.10%E -5.16%K -9.65%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.55%EV -4.55%E -1.54%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.16%EV -2.71%E -0.733%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-16 08:55 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.26I 44.25%NM 41.70%EV -6.55%E -2.90%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 2.89I 34.60%NM 32.61%EV -6.49%E -2.24%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 3.67I 27.25%NM 25.68%EV -3.50%E -0.954%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-16 02:39 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -6.97%E -3.10%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.81%EV -7.78%E -2.73%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.62%EV -4.03%E -1.10%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-16 09:30 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.87%EV -9.03%E -4.11%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.90%EV -9.40%E -3.36%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.24%EV -4.03%E -1.10%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-16 09:34 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.36%EV -9.03%E -4.11%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.70%EV -12.63%E -4.68%K -7.43%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.93%EV -4.03%E -1.10%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-16 03:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.12%EV -4.90%E -2.13%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.61%EV -6.16%E -2.13%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.27%EV -5.34%E -1.48%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-16 09:10 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.98%EV -4.90%E -2.13%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 32.84%EV -7.13%E -2.49%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -5.34%E -1.48%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-16 08:50 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.27I 44.05%NM 41.44%EV -6.14%E -2.70%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.44%EV -6.16%E -2.13%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.13%EV -5.34%E -1.48%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-16 09:29 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.27I 44.05%NM 41.44%EV -6.14%E -2.70%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.44%EV -6.16%E -2.13%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.13%EV -5.34%E -1.48%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-16 09:30 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.65%EV -6.97%E -3.10%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.32%EV -6.16%E -2.13%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -5.34%E -1.48%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-16 09:30 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.42%EV -6.97%E -3.10%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.70%EV -7.78%E -2.73%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.89%EV -5.34%E -1.48%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-16 03:50 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -9.03%E -4.11%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.78%EV -9.40%E -3.36%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.50%EV -5.34%E -1.48%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-16 08:15 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 43.34%EV -14.00%E -6.73%K -12.96%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.63%EV -7.78%E -2.73%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.04%EV -5.34%E -1.48%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-05-16 08:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 43.34%EV -14.00%E -6.73%K -12.96%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.63%EV -7.78%E -2.73%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.04%EV -5.34%E -1.48%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-05-16 08:55 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.97%EV -4.90%E -2.13%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.49%EV -6.16%E -2.13%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.54%EV -6.66%E -1.87%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-16 09:15 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.09%EV -5.73%E -2.51%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.53%EV -6.81%E -2.36%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.39%EV -6.66%E -1.87%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-16 09:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.09%EV -5.73%E -2.51%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.53%EV -6.81%E -2.36%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.39%EV -6.66%E -1.87%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-16 09:30 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.81%EV -4.90%E -2.13%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -6.16%E -2.13%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -7.97%E -2.28%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-16 09:15 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.34%EV -6.97%E -3.10%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.08%EV -6.16%E -2.13%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -7.97%E -2.28%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-16 09:10 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.34%EV -6.97%E -3.10%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.08%EV -6.16%E -2.13%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -7.97%E -2.28%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-16 09:10 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.34%EV -6.97%E -3.10%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.08%EV -6.16%E -2.13%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -7.97%E -2.28%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-16 09:10 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.34%EV -6.97%E -3.10%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.08%EV -6.16%E -2.13%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -7.97%E -2.28%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-16 09:15 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.88%EV -6.97%E -3.10%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.85%EV -9.40%E -3.36%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -7.97%E -2.28%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-16 09:19 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.75%EV -9.03%E -4.11%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 32.00%EV -7.13%E -2.49%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -7.97%E -2.28%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-16 08:10 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 43.26%EV -15.65%E -7.67%K -15.05%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.52%EV -9.40%E -3.36%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.22%EV -7.97%E -2.28%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-05-16 09:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 41.53%EV -13.17%E -6.27%K -11.97%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 33.55%EV -15.87%E -6.10%K -9.92%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 24.92%EV -7.97%E -2.28%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 14.7% | 2026-05-16 03:50 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.27I 44.05%NM 41.07%EV -6.14%E -2.70%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.15%EV -6.16%E -2.13%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 3.48I 28.74%NM 26.79%EV -8.50%E -2.44%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-16 09:34 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -9.03%E -4.11%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -6.16%E -2.13%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -10.60%E -3.12%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-16 09:35 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -9.03%E -4.11%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -6.16%E -2.13%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -10.60%E -3.12%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-16 09:35 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -9.03%E -4.11%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -6.16%E -2.13%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -10.60%E -3.12%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-16 09:35 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -6.97%E -3.10%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -9.40%E -3.36%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -10.60%E -3.12%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-05-16 09:35 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 41.49%EV -13.17%E -6.27%K -11.97%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 32.88%EV -14.25%E -5.38%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.63%EV -10.60%E -3.12%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 14.8% | 2026-05-16 09:15 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 41.42%EV -13.17%E -6.27%K -11.97%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.22%EV -12.63%E -4.68%K -7.43%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.36%EV -13.23%E -4.01%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 15.0% | 2026-05-16 09:35 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 40.39%EV -13.17%E -6.27%K -11.97%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 32.25%EV -14.90%E -5.67%K -9.14%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 27.36%EV -18.49%E -5.96%K -8.80%G +0.000% | 17.9% | 2026-05-16 08:05 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.55% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.42% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.02% | 1.1% | 2026-05-16 09:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.55% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.42% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.02% | 1.1% | 2026-05-16 09:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.55% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.42% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.02% | 1.1% | 2026-05-16 09:35 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.55% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.42% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.02% | 1.1% | 2026-05-16 09:30 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.33I 42.92%NM 42.12% | 3.03I 33.00%NM 32.39% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.49% | 1.9% | 2026-05-16 09:15 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.36I 42.37%NM 41.53% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.67% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.79% | 2.0% | 2026-05-16 09:35 |