La escuela de los momios

Newcastle Jets FC v Sydney FC

Inicio: 2026-05-16 09:40 UTC

Final: Newcastle Jets FC 1–1 Sydney FC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

48 corredores (11 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Newcastle Jets FC (Local)

Predicción 41.35%2.42momio equitativo
EV -2.83%
Ventaja -1.21%
Kelly -2.10%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.35

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
40.39%41.37%41.37%43.34%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.042.212.212.3549.02%45.20%45.15%42.55%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Sydney FC (Visitante)

Predicción 32.36%3.09momio equitativo
EV -1.31%
Ventaja -0.429%
Kelly -0.639%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.05

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
31.52%32.39%32.31%33.70%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.602.882.903.0538.46%34.75%34.48%32.79%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 26.29%3.80momio equitativo
EV +1.23%
Ventaja +0.320%
Kelly +0.433%
Crecimiento +0.005%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.85

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.92%26.23%26.33%27.36%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.103.583.603.8532.26%27.94%27.78%25.97%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (48 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargenActualizado
ATG (SE)2.23I 44.84%NM 43.28%EV -7.79%E -3.49%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.65%EV -1.31%E -0.429%K -0.639%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.07%EV +1.23%E +0.320%K +0.433%G +0.005%3.6%2026-05-16 09:00
LeoVegas2.18I 45.87%NM 43.10%EV -9.86%E -4.52%K -8.36%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.85%EV -4.55%E -1.54%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.05%EV -1.40%E -0.372%K -0.508%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-16 08:55
LeoVegas (SE)2.18I 45.87%NM 43.10%EV -9.86%E -4.52%K -8.36%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.85%EV -4.55%E -1.54%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.05%EV -1.40%E -0.372%K -0.508%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-16 08:55
Pinnacle2.33I 42.92%NM 41.51%EV -3.66%E -1.57%K -2.75%G +0.000%2.99I 33.44%NM 32.35%EV -3.25%E -1.09%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.14%EV -2.71%E -0.733%K -1.00%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-16 09:35
LowVig.ag2.35I 42.55%NM 41.12%EV -2.83%E -1.21%K -2.10%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.76%EV -4.55%E -1.54%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.12%EV -2.71%E -0.733%K -1.00%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-16 08:05
BetOnline.ag2.35I 42.55%NM 41.12%EV -2.83%E -1.21%K -2.10%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.76%EV -4.55%E -1.54%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.12%EV -2.71%E -0.733%K -1.00%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-16 08:05
Coolbet2.28I 43.86%NM 42.08%EV -5.73%E -2.51%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.98%EV -2.93%E -0.976%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.93%EV -2.71%E -0.733%K -1.00%G +0.000%4.2%2026-05-16 09:15
Unibet2.17I 46.08%NM 43.06%EV -10.27%E -4.73%K -8.78%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.68%EV -4.55%E -1.54%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.26%EV -2.71%E -0.733%K -1.00%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-16 09:00
TABtouch2.15I 46.51%NM 43.29%EV -11.10%E -5.16%K -9.65%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.55%EV -4.55%E -1.54%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.16%EV -2.71%E -0.733%K -1.00%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-16 08:55
Grosvenor2.15I 46.51%NM 43.29%EV -11.10%E -5.16%K -9.65%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.55%EV -4.55%E -1.54%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.16%EV -2.71%E -0.733%K -1.00%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-16 08:55
Unibet (SE)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.29%EV -11.10%E -5.16%K -9.65%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.55%EV -4.55%E -1.54%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.16%EV -2.71%E -0.733%K -1.00%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-16 08:55
Unibet (NL)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.29%EV -11.10%E -5.16%K -9.65%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.55%EV -4.55%E -1.54%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.16%EV -2.71%E -0.733%K -1.00%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-16 08:55
Casumo2.15I 46.51%NM 43.29%EV -11.10%E -5.16%K -9.65%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.55%EV -4.55%E -1.54%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.16%EV -2.71%E -0.733%K -1.00%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-16 08:55
betPARX2.15I 46.51%NM 43.29%EV -11.10%E -5.16%K -9.65%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.55%EV -4.55%E -1.54%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.16%EV -2.71%E -0.733%K -1.00%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-16 09:00
Svenska Spel2.15I 46.51%NM 43.29%EV -11.10%E -5.16%K -9.65%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.55%EV -4.55%E -1.54%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.16%EV -2.71%E -0.733%K -1.00%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-16 08:55
GTbets2.26I 44.25%NM 41.70%EV -6.55%E -2.90%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.89I 34.60%NM 32.61%EV -6.49%E -2.24%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.67I 27.25%NM 25.68%EV -3.50%E -0.954%K -1.31%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-16 02:39
PlayUp2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -6.97%E -3.10%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.81%EV -7.78%E -2.73%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.62%EV -4.03%E -1.10%K -1.52%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-16 09:30
Bet Right2.20I 45.45%NM 41.87%EV -9.03%E -4.11%K -7.53%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.90%EV -9.40%E -3.36%K -5.22%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.24%EV -4.03%E -1.10%K -1.52%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-16 09:34
Winamax (DE)2.20I 45.45%NM 41.36%EV -9.03%E -4.11%K -7.53%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.70%EV -12.63%E -4.68%K -7.43%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.93%EV -4.03%E -1.10%K -1.52%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-16 03:50
Coral2.30I 43.48%NM 41.12%EV -4.90%E -2.13%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.61%EV -6.16%E -2.13%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.27%EV -5.34%E -1.48%K -2.05%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-16 09:10
SportsBet2.30I 43.48%NM 40.98%EV -4.90%E -2.13%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.84%EV -7.13%E -2.49%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -5.34%E -1.48%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-16 08:50
Bovada2.27I 44.05%NM 41.44%EV -6.14%E -2.70%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.44%EV -6.16%E -2.13%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.13%EV -5.34%E -1.48%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-16 09:29
BetUS2.27I 44.05%NM 41.44%EV -6.14%E -2.70%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.44%EV -6.16%E -2.13%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.13%EV -5.34%E -1.48%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-16 09:30
TAB2.25I 44.44%NM 41.65%EV -6.97%E -3.10%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.32%EV -6.16%E -2.13%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -5.34%E -1.48%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-16 09:30
Unibet (UK)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.42%EV -6.97%E -3.10%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.70%EV -7.78%E -2.73%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.89%EV -5.34%E -1.48%K -2.05%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-16 03:50
betfred_uk2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -9.03%E -4.11%K -7.53%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.78%EV -9.40%E -3.36%K -5.22%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.50%EV -5.34%E -1.48%K -2.05%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-16 08:15
LiveScore Bet2.08I 48.08%NM 43.34%EV -14.00%E -6.73%K -12.96%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.63%EV -7.78%E -2.73%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.04%EV -5.34%E -1.48%K -2.05%G +0.000%10.9%2026-05-16 08:55
Virgin Bet2.08I 48.08%NM 43.34%EV -14.00%E -6.73%K -12.96%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.63%EV -7.78%E -2.73%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.04%EV -5.34%E -1.48%K -2.05%G +0.000%10.9%2026-05-16 08:55
DraftKings2.30I 43.48%NM 40.97%EV -4.90%E -2.13%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.49%EV -6.16%E -2.13%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.54%EV -6.66%E -1.87%K -2.61%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-16 09:15
Betsson2.28I 43.86%NM 41.09%EV -5.73%E -2.51%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.53%EV -6.81%E -2.36%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.39%EV -6.66%E -1.87%K -2.61%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-16 09:25
NordicBet2.28I 43.86%NM 41.09%EV -5.73%E -2.51%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.53%EV -6.81%E -2.36%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.39%EV -6.66%E -1.87%K -2.61%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-16 09:30
Everygame2.30I 43.48%NM 40.81%EV -4.90%E -2.13%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -6.16%E -2.13%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -7.97%E -2.28%K -3.19%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-16 09:15
Neds2.25I 44.44%NM 41.34%EV -6.97%E -3.10%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.08%EV -6.16%E -2.13%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -7.97%E -2.28%K -3.19%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-16 09:10
Ladbrokes (AU)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.34%EV -6.97%E -3.10%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.08%EV -6.16%E -2.13%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -7.97%E -2.28%K -3.19%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-16 09:10
Ladbrokes (UK)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.34%EV -6.97%E -3.10%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.08%EV -6.16%E -2.13%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -7.97%E -2.28%K -3.19%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-16 09:10
BetMGM2.25I 44.44%NM 41.34%EV -6.97%E -3.10%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.08%EV -6.16%E -2.13%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -7.97%E -2.28%K -3.19%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-16 09:15
Paddy Power2.25I 44.44%NM 40.88%EV -6.97%E -3.10%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.85%EV -9.40%E -3.36%K -5.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -7.97%E -2.28%K -3.19%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-16 09:19
Betr (AU)2.20I 45.45%NM 41.75%EV -9.03%E -4.11%K -7.53%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.00%EV -7.13%E -2.49%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -7.97%E -2.28%K -3.19%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-16 08:10
PMU (FR)2.04I 49.02%NM 43.26%EV -15.65%E -7.67%K -15.05%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.52%EV -9.40%E -3.36%K -5.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.22%EV -7.97%E -2.28%K -3.19%G +0.000%13.3%2026-05-16 09:00
Winamax (FR)2.10I 47.62%NM 41.53%EV -13.17%E -6.27%K -11.97%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.55%EV -15.87%E -6.10%K -9.92%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.92%EV -7.97%E -2.28%K -3.19%G +0.000%14.7%2026-05-16 03:50
Marathon Bet2.27I 44.05%NM 41.07%EV -6.14%E -2.70%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.15%EV -6.16%E -2.13%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 26.79%EV -8.50%E -2.44%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-16 09:34
888sport2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -9.03%E -4.11%K -7.53%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -6.16%E -2.13%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -10.60%E -3.12%K -4.42%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-16 09:35
888sport (SE)2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -9.03%E -4.11%K -7.53%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -6.16%E -2.13%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -10.60%E -3.12%K -4.42%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-16 09:35
Mr Green (SE)2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -9.03%E -4.11%K -7.53%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -6.16%E -2.13%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -10.60%E -3.12%K -4.42%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-16 09:35
William Hill2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -6.97%E -3.10%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -9.40%E -3.36%K -5.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -10.60%E -3.12%K -4.42%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-16 09:35
Unibet (FR)2.10I 47.62%NM 41.49%EV -13.17%E -6.27%K -11.97%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 32.88%EV -14.25%E -5.38%K -8.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.63%EV -10.60%E -3.12%K -4.42%G +0.000%14.8%2026-05-16 09:15
NetBet (FR)2.10I 47.62%NM 41.42%EV -13.17%E -6.27%K -11.97%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.22%EV -12.63%E -4.68%K -7.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.36%EV -13.23%E -4.01%K -5.75%G +0.000%15.0%2026-05-16 09:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 40.39%EV -13.17%E -6.27%K -11.97%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 32.25%EV -14.90%E -5.67%K -9.14%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.36%EV -18.49%E -5.96%K -8.80%G +0.000%17.9%2026-05-16 08:05
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.38I 42.02%NM 41.55%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.42%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.02%1.1%2026-05-16 09:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.38I 42.02%NM 41.55%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.42%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.02%1.1%2026-05-16 09:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.38I 42.02%NM 41.55%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.42%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.02%1.1%2026-05-16 09:35
Matchbook2.38I 42.02%NM 41.55%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.42%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.02%1.1%2026-05-16 09:30
Kalshi2.33I 42.92%NM 42.12%3.03I 33.00%NM 32.39%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.49%1.9%2026-05-16 09:15
Smarkets2.36I 42.37%NM 41.53%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.67%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.79%2.0%2026-05-16 09:35