Language:English
Velez Sarsfield BA v River Plate
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Velez Sarsfield BA (Local)
Prediction 32.44%3.08fair odd
EV -1.70%
Edge -0.562%
Kelly -0.839%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.03
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.55%32.48%32.45%33.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.832.853.0339.22%35.31%35.09%33.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
River Plate (Visit)
Prediction 35.43%2.82fair odd
EV -0.800%
Edge -0.286%
Kelly -0.445%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.23%35.35%35.45%36.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.452.622.642.8040.82%38.15%37.88%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 32.13%3.11fair odd
EV -2.00%
Edge -0.657%
Kelly -0.977%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.05
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.74%32.16%32.10%33.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.872.883.0539.22%34.84%34.78%32.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Velez Sarsfield BA (Local): 32.44%; River Plate (Visit): 35.43%; Draw: 32.13%. For River Plate (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.82. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.80, with an expected value of -0.800%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.03I 33.00%NM 31.98%EV -1.70%E -0.562%K -0.839%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.61%EV -0.800%E -0.286%K -0.445%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.41%EV -6.82%E -2.35%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-02-22 21:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.02I 33.11%NM 31.55%EV -2.03%E -0.671%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 35.03%EV -3.63%E -1.34%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.43%EV -8.43%E -2.96%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-02-22 22:05 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.02I 33.11%NM 31.55%EV -2.03%E -0.671%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 35.03%EV -3.63%E -1.34%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.43%EV -8.43%E -2.96%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-02-22 22:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.97%EV -4.30%E -1.46%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.93%EV -4.34%E -1.61%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.09%EV -8.43%E -2.96%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-02-22 21:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.97%EV -4.30%E -1.46%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.93%EV -4.34%E -1.61%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.09%EV -8.43%E -2.96%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-02-22 21:50 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.94%EV -4.30%E -1.46%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.56%EV -6.11%E -2.31%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.50%EV -6.82%E -2.35%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-02-22 21:44 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.78%EV -4.30%E -1.46%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.73%EV -4.34%E -1.61%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.49%EV -10.04%E -3.58%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-02-22 21:50 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.94I 34.01%NM 31.73%EV -4.62%E -1.57%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 2.67I 37.45%NM 34.94%EV -5.41%E -2.02%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.32%EV -10.04%E -3.58%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-02-22 22:04 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.91I 34.36%NM 32.04%EV -5.60%E -1.92%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 2.69I 37.17%NM 34.66%EV -4.70%E -1.75%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.30%EV -10.04%E -3.58%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-02-22 22:04 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.67%EV -5.92%E -2.04%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.75%EV -6.11%E -2.31%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.58%EV -3.61%E -1.20%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-02-22 21:44 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.32%EV -5.92%E -2.04%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.37%EV -6.11%E -2.31%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.32%EV -6.82%E -2.35%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-02-22 21:59 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.32%EV -5.92%E -2.04%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.37%EV -6.11%E -2.31%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.32%EV -6.82%E -2.35%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-02-22 22:00 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.10%EV -5.92%E -2.04%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -7.89%E -3.03%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.10%EV -6.82%E -2.35%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-02-22 21:45 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.95%EV -5.92%E -2.04%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.96%EV -6.11%E -2.31%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.09%EV -10.04%E -3.58%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-02-22 21:50 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.65%EV -6.57%E -2.28%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.48%EV -6.11%E -2.31%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -5.22%E -1.77%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-02-22 21:45 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.18%EV -6.57%E -2.28%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -7.89%E -3.03%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.18%EV -7.47%E -2.59%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-02-22 21:55 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.87I 34.84%NM 32.67%EV -6.89%E -2.40%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.07%EV -7.89%E -3.03%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.26%EV -3.61%E -1.20%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-02-22 21:45 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.12%EV -7.54%E -2.65%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.33%EV -2.57%E -0.935%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.55%EV -6.82%E -2.35%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-02-22 22:00 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.83%EV -7.54%E -2.65%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.98%EV -7.89%E -3.03%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -3.61%E -1.20%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-02-22 21:55 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.11%EV -7.54%E -2.65%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.20%EV -7.89%E -3.03%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.69%EV -10.04%E -3.58%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-02-22 22:05 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.84%EV -9.16%E -3.27%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.09%EV -4.34%E -1.61%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.07%EV -2.00%E -0.657%K -0.977%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-02-22 18:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.84%EV -9.16%E -3.27%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.09%EV -4.34%E -1.61%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.07%EV -2.00%E -0.657%K -0.977%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-02-22 18:55 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.62%EV -9.16%E -3.27%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.52%EV -6.11%E -2.31%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.86%EV -2.00%E -0.657%K -0.977%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-02-22 21:45 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.19%EV -9.16%E -3.27%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.42%EV -4.34%E -1.61%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 32.38%EV -7.79%E -2.71%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-02-22 22:00 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -9.16%E -3.27%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.14%EV -7.18%E -2.74%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.97%EV -7.47%E -2.59%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-02-22 21:54 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.28%EV -9.16%E -3.27%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.44%EV -9.66%E -3.79%K -6.23%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.28%EV -10.04%E -3.58%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-02-22 22:05 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.76%EV -10.79%E -3.92%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 35.30%EV -6.82%E -2.59%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.94%EV -3.61%E -1.20%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-02-22 21:45 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.98%EV -10.79%E -3.92%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.62%EV -7.18%E -2.74%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.40%EV -10.04%E -3.58%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-02-22 21:54 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.98%EV -10.79%E -3.92%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.28%EV -11.43%E -4.57%K -7.62%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.74%EV -5.22%E -1.77%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-02-22 21:45 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.41%EV -10.79%E -3.92%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 2.47I 40.49%NM 36.09%EV -12.49%E -5.06%K -8.50%G +0.000% | 2.83I 35.34%NM 31.50%EV -9.07%E -3.21%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-02-22 21:48 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.21%EV -10.79%E -3.92%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.15%EV -13.20%E -5.39%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.64%EV -10.04%E -3.58%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-02-22 21:45 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.86%EV -12.41%E -4.60%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.16%EV -7.89%E -3.03%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.99%EV -5.22%E -1.77%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-02-22 18:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.86%EV -12.41%E -4.60%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.16%EV -7.89%E -3.03%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.99%EV -5.22%E -1.77%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-02-22 18:55 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.11%EV -12.41%E -4.60%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.38%EV -7.89%E -3.03%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.51%EV -11.64%E -4.23%K -6.65%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-02-22 21:55 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.07%EV -12.41%E -4.60%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 34.63%EV -11.43%E -4.57%K -7.62%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 33.30%EV -16.46%E -6.33%K -10.29%G +0.000% | 15.5% | 2026-02-22 21:55 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.67I 37.45%NM 32.57%EV -13.38%E -5.01%K -8.01%G +0.000% | 2.47I 40.49%NM 35.21%EV -12.49%E -5.06%K -8.50%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.21%EV -13.25%E -4.91%K -7.79%G +0.000% | 15.0% | 2026-02-22 22:04 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 33.21%EV -14.03%E -5.29%K -8.50%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 35.92%EV -13.20%E -5.39%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 30.88%EV -8.43%E -2.96%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-02-22 21:45 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 32.89%EV -17.27%E -6.77%K -11.14%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 34.23%EV -13.20%E -5.39%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 32.89%EV -18.07%E -7.09%K -11.66%G +0.000% | 19.2% | 2026-02-22 22:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.61% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 34.78% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.61% | 0.5% | 2026-02-22 22:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.98% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 34.59% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.43% | 1.1% | 2026-02-22 22:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.98% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 34.59% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.43% | 1.1% | 2026-02-22 22:05 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.98% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 34.59% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.43% | 1.1% | 2026-02-22 22:05 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.98I 33.56%NM 32.95% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 34.33% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.73% | 1.9% | 2026-02-22 22:00 |