Language:English
Velez Sarsfield BA v Gimnasia La Plata
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Velez Sarsfield BA (Local)
Prediction 46.59%2.15fair odd
EV -3.55%
Edge -1.72%
Kelly -3.32%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.07
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.27%46.65%46.67%48.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.861.972.002.0753.76%50.65%50.00%48.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Gimnasia La Plata (Visit)
Prediction 22.60%4.43fair odd
EV +1.68%
Edge +0.373%
Kelly +0.480%
Growth +0.008%
assuming max odds 4.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.80%22.57%22.46%24.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.104.104.5026.67%24.41%24.39%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 30.81%3.25fair odd
EV -2.33%
Edge -0.734%
Kelly -1.07%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.17
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.90%30.77%30.87%31.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.753.013.003.1736.36%33.26%33.33%31.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Velez Sarsfield BA (Local): 46.59%; Gimnasia La Plata (Visit): 22.60%; Draw: 30.81%. For Gimnasia La Plata (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.43. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.68%.
Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -9.14%E -4.69%K -9.63%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.80%EV +1.68%E +0.373%K +0.480%G +0.008% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.20%EV -7.56%E -2.52%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-11 00:14 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.27%EV -9.14%E -4.69%K -9.63%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.95%EV -0.579%E -0.132%K -0.170%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.78%EV -10.65%E -3.67%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-11 00:14 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 46.39%EV -3.55%E -1.72%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 4.38I 22.83%NM 21.92%EV -1.03%E -0.235%K -0.305%G +0.000% | 3.03I 33.00%NM 31.69%EV -6.64%E -2.19%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-11 00:19 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 47.36%EV -4.95%E -2.43%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 4.36I 22.94%NM 22.16%EV -1.48%E -0.340%K -0.441%G +0.000% | 3.17I 31.55%NM 30.48%EV -2.33%E -0.734%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-05-11 00:24 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.17%EV -5.88%E -2.91%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.90%EV -1.71%E -0.393%K -0.510%G +0.000% | 3.08I 32.47%NM 30.93%EV -5.10%E -1.66%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-11 00:04 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.17%EV -5.88%E -2.91%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.90%EV -1.71%E -0.393%K -0.510%G +0.000% | 3.08I 32.47%NM 30.93%EV -5.10%E -1.66%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-11 00:04 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -6.82%E -3.41%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.84%EV -1.71%E -0.393%K -0.510%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -4.48%E -1.45%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-11 00:04 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.87%EV -8.21%E -4.17%K -8.47%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.19%EV -3.97%E -0.934%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.94%EV -2.94%E -0.934%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-11 00:24 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.52%EV -7.75%E -3.91%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.14%EV -3.97%E -0.934%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -4.48%E -1.45%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-11 00:24 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.66%EV -5.88%E -2.91%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.44%EV -5.10%E -1.21%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.90%EV -6.02%E -1.97%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-11 00:19 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.91%EV -6.82%E -3.41%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%EV -5.10%E -1.21%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.76%EV -6.02%E -1.97%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-11 00:20 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.52%EV -8.21%E -4.17%K -8.47%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.29%EV -5.10%E -1.21%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.20%EV -4.48%E -1.45%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-10 17:19 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -6.82%E -3.41%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -5.10%E -1.21%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.11%EV -7.56%E -2.52%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-11 00:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.22%EV -11.01%E -5.76%K -12.10%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.47%EV -5.10%E -1.21%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.31%EV -11.26%E -3.91%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-05-11 00:15 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.01I 49.75%NM 46.37%EV -6.35%E -3.16%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.46%EV -6.23%E -1.50%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 2.99I 33.44%NM 31.17%EV -7.87%E -2.63%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-11 00:24 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.04%EV -4.49%E -2.19%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.02%EV -7.36%E -1.79%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.94%EV -6.02%E -1.97%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-10 22:55 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.88%EV -6.82%E -3.41%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.87%EV -7.36%E -1.79%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.25%EV -4.48%E -1.45%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-11 00:19 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.88%EV -6.82%E -3.41%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.87%EV -7.36%E -1.79%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.25%EV -4.48%E -1.45%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-11 00:19 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.42%EV -6.82%E -3.41%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -7.36%E -1.79%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.94%EV -7.56%E -2.52%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-11 00:16 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.80%EV -11.01%E -5.76%K -12.10%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.27%EV -7.36%E -1.79%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.93%EV -6.02%E -1.97%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-11 00:24 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 47.43%EV -10.54%E -5.49%K -11.46%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.21%EV -7.36%E -1.79%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.36%EV -7.56%E -2.52%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-11 00:24 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 47.58%EV -11.94%E -6.32%K -13.42%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.93%EV -7.36%E -1.79%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.48%EV -9.10%E -3.09%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-05-11 00:24 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.00%EV -4.49%E -2.19%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.58%EV -9.62%E -2.40%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -4.48%E -1.45%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-10 23:34 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.15%EV -6.82%E -3.41%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -9.62%E -2.40%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -7.56%E -2.52%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-10 22:59 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.15%EV -6.82%E -3.41%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -9.62%E -2.40%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -7.56%E -2.52%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-10 22:59 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.15%EV -6.82%E -3.41%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -9.62%E -2.40%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -7.56%E -2.52%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-10 17:19 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.30%EV -11.01%E -5.76%K -12.10%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.11%EV -9.62%E -2.40%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.59%EV -13.73%E -4.90%K -7.63%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-05-11 00:15 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.76%EV -11.01%E -5.76%K -12.10%G +0.000% | 3.98I 25.13%NM 22.44%EV -10.07%E -2.53%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.80%EV -10.65%E -3.67%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-05-11 00:15 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 47.01%EV -9.61%E -4.95%K -10.22%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.09%EV -10.75%E -2.72%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.90%EV -6.02%E -1.97%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-05-11 00:19 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.27%EV -4.49%E -2.19%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.80%EV -11.88%E -3.05%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.93%EV -7.56%E -2.52%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-10 23:34 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.95%EV -5.88%E -2.91%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.11%EV -13.01%E -3.38%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.94%EV -4.48%E -1.45%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-11 00:24 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.97%EV -6.82%E -3.41%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.88%EV -13.01%E -3.38%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.15%EV -6.02%E -1.97%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-10 22:59 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 46.82%EV -13.34%E -7.17%K -15.51%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 22.62%EV -13.01%E -3.38%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 30.56%EV -12.19%E -4.28%K -6.59%G +0.000% | 14.8% | 2026-05-11 00:15 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 46.54%EV -12.87%E -6.88%K -14.80%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 22.60%EV -13.01%E -3.38%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 30.86%EV -13.11%E -4.65%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 14.9% | 2026-05-11 00:19 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.23%EV -9.14%E -4.69%K -9.63%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.72%EV -14.14%E -3.72%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.05%EV -7.56%E -2.52%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-05-10 22:59 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 46.26%EV -11.47%E -6.04%K -12.75%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.44%EV -15.27%E -4.07%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.31%EV -10.65%E -3.67%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-05-11 00:14 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 45.37%EV -11.01%E -5.76%K -12.10%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.11%EV -15.27%E -4.07%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 31.51%EV -15.27%E -5.55%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 15.4% | 2026-05-11 00:24 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.06I 48.54%NM 48.03% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.05% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.92% | 1.1% | 2026-05-11 00:24 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.06I 48.54%NM 48.03% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.05% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.92% | 1.1% | 2026-05-11 00:24 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.06I 48.54%NM 48.03% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.05% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.92% | 1.1% | 2026-05-11 00:24 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.06I 48.54%NM 48.03% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.05% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.92% | 1.1% | 2026-05-11 00:24 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.06I 48.54%NM 47.81% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.41% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.78% | 1.5% | 2026-05-11 00:24 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.02% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 21.55% | 3.33I 30.03%NM 29.44% | 2.0% | 2026-05-11 00:24 |