A Escola das Odds

Velez Sarsfield BA v Gimnasia La Plata

Início: 2026-05-11 00:30 UTC

Final: Velez Sarsfield BA 0–1 Gimnasia La Plata

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

37 casas de apostas (15 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: IQM

Velez Sarsfield BA (Local)

Previsão 46.59%2.15odd justa
EV -3.55%
Vantagem -1.72%
Kelly -3.32%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.07

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
45.27%46.65%46.67%48.00%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
1.861.972.002.0753.76%50.65%50.00%48.31%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Gimnasia La Plata (Visitante)

Previsão 22.60%4.43odd justa
EV +1.68%
Vantagem +0.373%
Kelly +0.480%
Crescimento +0.008%

pressupondo odds máximas de 4.50

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
20.80%22.57%22.46%24.11%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
3.754.104.104.5026.67%24.41%24.39%22.22%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Empate

Previsão 30.81%3.25odd justa
EV -2.33%
Vantagem -0.734%
Kelly -1.07%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.17

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
29.90%30.77%30.87%31.78%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
2.753.013.003.1736.36%33.26%33.33%31.55%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Odds das casas de apostas (37 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargemAtualização
FanDuel1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -9.14%E -4.69%K -9.63%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.80%EV +1.68%E +0.373%K +0.480%G +0.008%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.20%EV -7.56%E -2.52%K -3.78%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-11 00:14
SportsBet1.95I 51.28%NM 47.27%EV -9.14%E -4.69%K -9.63%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.95%EV -0.579%E -0.132%K -0.170%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.78%EV -10.65%E -3.67%K -5.60%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-11 00:14
1xBet2.07I 48.31%NM 46.39%EV -3.55%E -1.72%K -3.32%G +0.000%4.38I 22.83%NM 21.92%EV -1.03%E -0.235%K -0.305%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 31.69%EV -6.64%E -2.19%K -3.27%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-11 00:19
Pinnacle2.04I 49.02%NM 47.36%EV -4.95%E -2.43%K -4.76%G +0.000%4.36I 22.94%NM 22.16%EV -1.48%E -0.340%K -0.441%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 30.48%EV -2.33%E -0.734%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-11 00:24
BetOnline.ag2.02I 49.50%NM 47.17%EV -5.88%E -2.91%K -5.77%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.90%EV -1.71%E -0.393%K -0.510%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 30.93%EV -5.10%E -1.66%K -2.45%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-11 00:04
LowVig.ag2.02I 49.50%NM 47.17%EV -5.88%E -2.91%K -5.77%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.90%EV -1.71%E -0.393%K -0.510%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 30.93%EV -5.10%E -1.66%K -2.45%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-11 00:04
BetAnything2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -6.82%E -3.41%K -6.82%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.84%EV -1.71%E -0.393%K -0.510%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -4.48%E -1.45%K -2.13%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-11 00:04
Unibet (SE)1.97I 50.76%NM 47.87%EV -8.21%E -4.17%K -8.47%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.19%EV -3.97%E -0.934%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.94%EV -2.94%E -0.934%K -1.37%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-11 00:24
Unibet1.98I 50.51%NM 47.52%EV -7.75%E -3.91%K -7.91%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.14%EV -3.97%E -0.934%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -4.48%E -1.45%K -2.13%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-11 00:24
Unibet (UK)2.02I 49.50%NM 46.66%EV -5.88%E -2.91%K -5.77%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.44%EV -5.10%E -1.21%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.90%EV -6.02%E -1.97%K -2.94%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-11 00:19
Everygame2.00I 50.00%NM 46.91%EV -6.82%E -3.41%K -6.82%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%EV -5.10%E -1.21%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.76%EV -6.02%E -1.97%K -2.94%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-11 00:20
BetRivers1.97I 50.76%NM 47.52%EV -8.21%E -4.17%K -8.47%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.29%EV -5.10%E -1.21%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.20%EV -4.48%E -1.45%K -2.13%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-10 17:19
theScore Bet2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -6.82%E -3.41%K -6.82%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -5.10%E -1.21%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.11%EV -7.56%E -2.52%K -3.78%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-11 00:20
Paddy Power1.91I 52.36%NM 47.22%EV -11.01%E -5.76%K -12.10%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.47%EV -5.10%E -1.21%K -1.59%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.31%EV -11.26%E -3.91%K -5.99%G +0.000%10.9%2026-05-11 00:15
Marathon Bet2.01I 49.75%NM 46.37%EV -6.35%E -3.16%K -6.29%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.46%EV -6.23%E -1.50%K -1.98%G +0.000%2.99I 33.44%NM 31.17%EV -7.87%E -2.63%K -3.96%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-11 00:24
DraftKings2.05I 48.78%NM 46.04%EV -4.49%E -2.19%K -4.27%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.02%EV -7.36%E -1.79%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.94%EV -6.02%E -1.97%K -2.94%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-10 22:55
Betsson2.00I 50.00%NM 46.88%EV -6.82%E -3.41%K -6.82%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.87%EV -7.36%E -1.79%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.25%EV -4.48%E -1.45%K -2.13%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-11 00:19
NordicBet2.00I 50.00%NM 46.88%EV -6.82%E -3.41%K -6.82%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.87%EV -7.36%E -1.79%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.25%EV -4.48%E -1.45%K -2.13%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-11 00:19
Bovada2.00I 50.00%NM 46.42%EV -6.82%E -3.41%K -6.82%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -7.36%E -1.79%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.94%EV -7.56%E -2.52%K -3.78%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-11 00:16
Virgin Bet1.91I 52.36%NM 47.80%EV -11.01%E -5.76%K -12.10%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.27%EV -7.36%E -1.79%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.93%EV -6.02%E -1.97%K -2.94%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-11 00:24
LiveScore Bet1.92I 52.08%NM 47.43%EV -10.54%E -5.49%K -11.46%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.21%EV -7.36%E -1.79%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.36%EV -7.56%E -2.52%K -3.78%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-11 00:24
LeoVegas (SE)1.89I 52.91%NM 47.58%EV -11.94%E -6.32%K -13.42%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.93%EV -7.36%E -1.79%K -2.37%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.48%EV -9.10%E -3.09%K -4.67%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-11 00:24
Ladbrokes (UK)2.05I 48.78%NM 46.00%EV -4.49%E -2.19%K -4.27%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.58%EV -9.62%E -2.40%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -4.48%E -1.45%K -2.13%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-10 23:34
betfred_uk2.00I 50.00%NM 46.15%EV -6.82%E -3.41%K -6.82%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -9.62%E -2.40%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -7.56%E -2.52%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-10 22:59
Betway2.00I 50.00%NM 46.15%EV -6.82%E -3.41%K -6.82%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -9.62%E -2.40%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -7.56%E -2.52%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-10 22:59
BoyleSports2.00I 50.00%NM 46.15%EV -6.82%E -3.41%K -6.82%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -9.62%E -2.40%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -7.56%E -2.52%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-10 17:19
Sky Bet1.91I 52.36%NM 46.30%EV -11.01%E -5.76%K -12.10%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.11%EV -9.62%E -2.40%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.59%EV -13.73%E -4.90%K -7.63%G +0.000%13.1%2026-05-11 00:15
Betclic (FR)1.91I 52.36%NM 46.76%EV -11.01%E -5.76%K -12.10%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 22.44%EV -10.07%E -2.53%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.80%EV -10.65%E -3.67%K -5.60%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-11 00:15
Winamax (DE)1.94I 51.55%NM 47.01%EV -9.61%E -4.95%K -10.22%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.09%EV -10.75%E -2.72%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.90%EV -6.02%E -1.97%K -2.94%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-11 00:19
BetMGM2.05I 48.78%NM 45.27%EV -4.49%E -2.19%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.80%EV -11.88%E -3.05%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.93%EV -7.56%E -2.52%K -3.78%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-10 23:34
PlayUp2.02I 49.50%NM 45.95%EV -5.88%E -2.91%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.11%EV -13.01%E -3.38%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.94%EV -4.48%E -1.45%K -2.13%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-11 00:24
Bet Right2.00I 50.00%NM 45.97%EV -6.82%E -3.41%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.88%EV -13.01%E -3.38%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.15%EV -6.02%E -1.97%K -2.94%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-10 22:59
Unibet (FR)1.86I 53.76%NM 46.82%EV -13.34%E -7.17%K -15.51%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.62%EV -13.01%E -3.38%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.56%EV -12.19%E -4.28%K -6.59%G +0.000%14.8%2026-05-11 00:15
NetBet (FR)1.87I 53.48%NM 46.54%EV -12.87%E -6.88%K -14.80%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.60%EV -13.01%E -3.38%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 30.86%EV -13.11%E -4.65%K -7.20%G +0.000%14.9%2026-05-11 00:19
Betr (AU)1.95I 51.28%NM 46.23%EV -9.14%E -4.69%K -9.63%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.72%EV -14.14%E -3.72%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.05%EV -7.56%E -2.52%K -3.78%G +0.000%10.9%2026-05-10 22:59
Winamax (FR)1.90I 52.63%NM 46.26%EV -11.47%E -6.04%K -12.75%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.44%EV -15.27%E -4.07%K -5.55%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.31%EV -10.65%E -3.67%K -5.60%G +0.000%13.8%2026-05-11 00:14
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.91I 52.36%NM 45.37%EV -11.01%E -5.76%K -12.10%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.11%EV -15.27%E -4.07%K -5.55%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.51%EV -15.27%E -5.55%K -8.72%G +0.000%15.4%2026-05-11 00:24
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (6)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.06I 48.54%NM 48.03%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.05%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.92%1.1%2026-05-11 00:24
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.06I 48.54%NM 48.03%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.05%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.92%1.1%2026-05-11 00:24
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.06I 48.54%NM 48.03%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.05%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.92%1.1%2026-05-11 00:24
Matchbook2.06I 48.54%NM 48.03%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.05%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.92%1.1%2026-05-11 00:24
Smarkets2.06I 48.54%NM 47.81%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.41%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.78%1.5%2026-05-11 00:24
Kalshi2.00I 50.00%NM 49.02%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.55%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.44%2.0%2026-05-11 00:24