Language:English
Velez Sarsfield BA v Estudiantes
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Velez Sarsfield BA (Local)
Prediction 34.78%2.87fair odd
EV -2.60%
Edge -0.929%
Kelly -1.45%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.98%34.82%34.85%36.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.452.642.662.8040.82%37.89%37.59%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Estudiantes (Visit)
Prediction 30.86%3.24fair odd
EV +5.25%
Edge +1.54%
Kelly +2.18%
Growth +0.114%
assuming max odds 3.41
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.13%30.83%30.89%31.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.853.013.003.4135.09%33.22%33.33%29.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 34.35%2.91fair odd
EV -4.16%
Edge -1.49%
Kelly -2.32%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.79
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.98%34.35%34.26%36.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.702.732.7940.00%37.09%36.70%35.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Velez Sarsfield BA (Local): 34.78%; Estudiantes (Visit): 30.86%; Draw: 34.35%. For Estudiantes (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.24. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.41, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.25%.
Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.71I 36.90%NM 35.40%EV -5.73%E -2.12%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 3.41I 29.33%NM 28.13%EV +5.25%E +1.54%K +2.18%G +0.114% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.47%EV -9.66%E -3.67%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-06 00:10 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.57%EV -2.60%E -0.929%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.73%EV -2.78%E -0.882%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 2.79I 35.84%NM 34.70%EV -4.16%E -1.49%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-09-06 00:10 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.49%EV -2.60%E -0.929%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.65%EV -2.78%E -0.882%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 2.77I 36.10%NM 34.86%EV -4.85%E -1.75%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-09-05 23:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.49%EV -2.60%E -0.929%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.65%EV -2.78%E -0.882%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 2.77I 36.10%NM 34.86%EV -4.85%E -1.75%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-09-05 23:55 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.49%EV -2.60%E -0.929%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.65%EV -2.78%E -0.882%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 2.77I 36.10%NM 34.86%EV -4.85%E -1.75%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-09-05 23:55 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.67I 37.45%NM 34.97%EV -7.12%E -2.67%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 29.93%EV -3.71%E -1.19%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 2.66I 37.59%NM 35.10%EV -8.63%E -3.24%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-06 00:10 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.64%EV -4.34%E -1.58%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.73%EV -4.32%E -1.39%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.64%EV -5.53%E -2.01%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-06 00:10 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 35.65%EV -8.52%E -3.24%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.25%EV -4.32%E -1.39%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.10%EV -5.53%E -2.01%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-06 00:10 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 35.65%EV -8.52%E -3.24%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.25%EV -4.32%E -1.39%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.10%EV -5.53%E -2.01%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-06 00:10 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.72I 36.76%NM 34.84%EV -5.39%E -1.98%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.07%EV -5.87%E -1.92%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 34.09%EV -4.50%E -1.62%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-05 23:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.72I 36.76%NM 34.84%EV -5.39%E -1.98%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.07%EV -5.87%E -1.92%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 34.09%EV -4.50%E -1.62%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-05 23:45 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.88%EV -6.08%E -2.25%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.88%EV -5.87%E -1.92%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.24%EV -5.53%E -2.01%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-06 00:00 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.88%EV -6.08%E -2.25%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.88%EV -5.87%E -1.92%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.24%EV -5.53%E -2.01%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-05 23:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.43%EV -6.08%E -2.25%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.48%EV -5.87%E -1.92%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.08%EV -8.97%E -3.38%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-06 00:05 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.65%EV -13.04%E -5.22%K -8.69%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.04%EV -5.87%E -1.92%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.32%EV -5.53%E -2.01%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-06 00:10 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.07%EV -4.34%E -1.58%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -7.41%E -2.47%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.70%EV -7.25%E -2.69%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-06 00:05 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.70%EV -6.08%E -2.25%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -7.41%E -2.47%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.07%EV -5.53%E -2.01%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-06 00:09 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.70%EV -6.08%E -2.25%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -7.41%E -2.47%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.07%EV -5.53%E -2.01%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-06 00:05 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.70%EV -6.08%E -2.25%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -7.41%E -2.47%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.07%EV -5.53%E -2.01%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-06 00:10 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.48%EV -6.08%E -2.25%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -7.41%E -2.47%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.48%EV -7.25%E -2.69%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-06 00:00 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.48%EV -6.08%E -2.25%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -7.41%E -2.47%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.48%EV -7.25%E -2.69%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-06 00:00 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.17%EV -8.86%E -3.38%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.71%EV -7.41%E -2.47%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.12%EV -7.25%E -2.69%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-05 23:55 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.79%EV -11.30%E -4.43%K -7.29%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.42%EV -7.41%E -2.47%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.80%EV -7.25%E -2.69%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-09-06 00:01 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -13.04%E -5.22%K -8.69%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -7.41%E -2.47%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -5.53%E -2.01%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-09-06 00:10 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.52%EV -6.08%E -2.25%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -8.95%E -3.03%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.89%EV -5.53%E -2.01%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-06 00:05 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.28%EV -13.04%E -5.22%K -8.69%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.74%EV -8.95%E -3.03%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.98%EV -5.53%E -2.01%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-09-06 00:05 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.53I 39.53%NM 35.31%EV -11.99%E -4.74%K -7.84%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 30.59%EV -9.88%E -3.38%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.10%EV -10.00%E -3.82%K -6.17%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-09-06 00:00 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.11%EV -13.04%E -5.22%K -8.69%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 30.06%EV -9.88%E -3.38%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 34.83%EV -13.43%E -5.33%K -8.84%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-09-06 00:05 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.75%EV -7.82%E -2.95%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.76%EV -10.50%E -3.62%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.49%EV -5.53%E -2.01%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-05 23:50 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.97%EV -9.56%E -3.68%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.35%EV -10.50%E -3.62%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.68%EV -7.25%E -2.69%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-09-05 23:55 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 34.26%EV -8.52%E -3.24%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.07%EV -10.50%E -3.62%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.66%EV -10.69%E -4.11%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-09-06 00:05 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.35%EV -8.86%E -3.38%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.03%EV -10.50%E -3.62%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.62%EV -10.69%E -4.11%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-06 00:05 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 35.60%EV -13.73%E -5.54%K -9.28%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.44%EV -10.50%E -3.62%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 33.96%EV -10.69%E -4.11%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-09-06 00:05 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 35.60%EV -13.73%E -5.54%K -9.28%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.44%EV -10.50%E -3.62%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 33.96%EV -10.69%E -4.11%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-09-06 00:05 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 35.88%EV -14.78%E -6.03%K -10.19%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.31%EV -10.50%E -3.62%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 33.81%EV -10.69%E -4.11%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-09-06 00:00 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 33.98%EV -9.56%E -3.68%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.68%EV -11.11%E -3.86%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.34%EV -14.12%E -5.65%K -9.41%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-09-06 00:05 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 35.80%EV -14.78%E -6.03%K -10.19%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.46%EV -11.11%E -3.86%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 33.74%EV -10.69%E -4.11%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-09-06 00:10 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.00%EV -11.30%E -4.43%K -7.29%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.32%EV -12.04%E -4.22%K -6.51%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 33.68%EV -8.97%E -3.38%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-09-06 00:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 2.86I 34.97%NM 34.61% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 31.72% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.67% | 1.0% | 2026-09-06 00:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.96I 33.78%NM 33.37% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.36% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 35.28% | 1.2% | 2026-09-06 00:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.96I 33.78%NM 33.37% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.36% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 35.28% | 1.2% | 2026-09-06 00:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.96I 33.78%NM 33.37% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.36% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 35.28% | 1.2% | 2026-09-06 00:10 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.74% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.06% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 35.20% | 2.2% | 2026-09-06 00:10 |