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Velez Sarsfield BA v Estudiantes

2026-09-06 20:00 UTC — Primera División - Argentina

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Velez Sarsfield BA (Local)

Prediction 41.25%2.42fair odd
EV -5.12%
Edge -2.23%
Kelly -3.94%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.79%41.15%41.25%41.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.192.202.3048.78%45.75%45.45%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Estudiantes (Visit)

Prediction 27.01%3.70fair odd
EV -2.22%
Edge -0.615%
Kelly -0.849%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.92%27.04%27.01%28.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.343.313.6233.33%29.93%30.21%27.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 31.74%3.15fair odd
EV -4.78%
Edge -1.59%
Kelly -2.39%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.24%31.81%31.74%32.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.652.832.833.0037.74%35.37%35.40%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Velez Sarsfield BA (Local): 41.25%; Estudiantes (Visit): 27.01%; Draw: 31.74%. For Estudiantes (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.70. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.62, with an expected value of -2.22%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.27%EV -5.12%E -2.23%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.22%EV -2.22%E -0.615%K -0.849%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.51%EV -7.32%E -2.51%K -3.81%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-23 18:14
Fanatics🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -5.12%E -2.23%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -8.17%E -2.40%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.38%EV -4.78%E -1.59%K -2.39%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-24 00:39
SportsBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.55%EV -5.12%E -2.23%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.84%EV -9.52%E -2.84%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.61%EV -6.37%E -2.16%K -3.27%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-24 00:34
FanDuel🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.38%EV -5.12%E -2.23%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -10.87%E -3.29%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.48%EV -6.37%E -2.16%K -3.27%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-24 00:34
Codere (IT)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.48%EV -8.01%E -3.59%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.06%EV -4.12%E -1.16%K -1.61%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.46%EV -9.54%E -3.35%K -5.16%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-23 18:14
BoyleSports🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.80%EV -9.25%E -4.20%K -7.71%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.27%EV -5.47%E -1.56%K -2.19%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.93%EV -8.59%E -2.98%K -4.57%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-23 18:13
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.61%EV -9.25%E -4.20%K -7.71%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.49%EV -12.22%E -3.76%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -11.13%E -3.98%K -6.18%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-24 00:34
Sky Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 39.79%EV -11.31%E -5.26%K -9.83%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.52%EV -18.97%E -6.32%K -9.49%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 31.69%EV -14.30%E -5.30%K -8.41%G +0.000%16.9%2026-08-24 00:34
Winamax (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.90%EV -13.37%E -6.37%K -12.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.67%EV -10.87%E -3.29%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.43%EV -11.13%E -3.98%K -6.18%G +0.000%13.6%2026-08-23 18:14
Betclic (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 41.97%EV -15.43%E -7.53%K -14.70%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 25.92%EV -10.33%E -3.11%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 32.11%EV -14.94%E -5.57%K -8.89%G +0.000%16.2%2026-08-23 18:13
Winamax (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 41.91%EV -15.43%E -7.53%K -14.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.85%EV -13.57%E -4.24%K -6.17%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.24%EV -12.72%E -4.62%K -7.27%G +0.000%16.4%2026-08-23 18:14
Unibet (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 41.76%EV -15.43%E -7.53%K -14.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.94%EV -10.87%E -3.29%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 32.30%EV -15.89%E -6.00%K -9.63%G +0.000%16.8%2026-08-23 18:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.