Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Velez Sarsfield BA v Estudiantes

Início: 2026-09-06 00:15 UTC

Final: Velez Sarsfield BA 1–0 Estudiantes

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

38 casas de apostas (17 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Velez Sarsfield BA (Local)

Previsão 34.78%2.87odd justa
EV -2.60%
Vantagem -0.929%
Kelly -1.45%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.80

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
33.98%34.82%34.85%36.65%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.452.642.662.8040.82%37.89%37.59%35.71%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Estudiantes (Visitante)

Previsão 30.86%3.24odd justa
EV +5.25%
Vantagem +1.54%
Kelly +2.18%
Crescimento +0.114%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.41

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
28.13%30.83%30.89%31.76%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.853.013.003.4135.09%33.22%33.33%29.33%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 34.35%2.91odd justa
EV -4.16%
Vantagem -1.49%
Kelly -2.32%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.79

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
32.98%34.35%34.26%36.47%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.502.702.732.7940.00%37.09%36.70%35.84%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Velez Sarsfield BA (Local): 34.78%; Estudiantes (Visitante): 30.86%; Empate: 34.35%. Para Estudiantes (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 3.24. 1 casa de apostas oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 3.41, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +5.25%.

Odds das casas de apostas (38 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargemAtualização
1xBet🎯2.71I 36.90%NM 35.40%EV -5.73%E -2.12%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.41I 29.33%NM 28.13%EV +5.25%E +1.54%K +2.18%G +0.114%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.47%EV -9.66%E -3.67%K -5.92%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-06 00:10
Pinnacle🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.57%EV -2.60%E -0.929%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.73%EV -2.78%E -0.882%K -1.29%G +0.000%2.79I 35.84%NM 34.70%EV -4.16%E -1.49%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.3%2026-09-06 00:10
LowVig.ag🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.49%EV -2.60%E -0.929%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.65%EV -2.78%E -0.882%K -1.29%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 34.86%EV -4.85%E -1.75%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.6%2026-09-05 23:55
BetOnline.ag🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.49%EV -2.60%E -0.929%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.65%EV -2.78%E -0.882%K -1.29%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 34.86%EV -4.85%E -1.75%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.6%2026-09-05 23:55
BetAnything🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.49%EV -2.60%E -0.929%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.65%EV -2.78%E -0.882%K -1.29%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 34.86%EV -4.85%E -1.75%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.6%2026-09-05 23:55
Marathon Bet🎯2.67I 37.45%NM 34.97%EV -7.12%E -2.67%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.93%EV -3.71%E -1.19%K -1.75%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 35.10%EV -8.63%E -3.24%K -5.20%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-06 00:10
Fanatics🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.64%EV -4.34%E -1.58%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.73%EV -4.32%E -1.39%K -2.06%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.64%EV -5.53%E -2.01%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-06 00:10
Unibet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.65%EV -8.52%E -3.24%K -5.22%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.25%EV -4.32%E -1.39%K -2.06%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.10%EV -5.53%E -2.01%K -3.16%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-06 00:10
Unibet (SE)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.65%EV -8.52%E -3.24%K -5.22%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.25%EV -4.32%E -1.39%K -2.06%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.10%EV -5.53%E -2.01%K -3.16%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-06 00:10
Betsson🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 34.84%EV -5.39%E -1.98%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.07%EV -5.87%E -1.92%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.09%EV -4.50%E -1.62%K -2.53%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-05 23:50
NordicBet🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 34.84%EV -5.39%E -1.98%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.07%EV -5.87%E -1.92%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.09%EV -4.50%E -1.62%K -2.53%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-05 23:45
Codere (IT)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.88%EV -6.08%E -2.25%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.88%EV -5.87%E -1.92%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.24%EV -5.53%E -2.01%K -3.16%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-06 00:00
DraftKings🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.88%EV -6.08%E -2.25%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.88%EV -5.87%E -1.92%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.24%EV -5.53%E -2.01%K -3.16%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-05 23:55
SportsBet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.43%EV -6.08%E -2.25%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.48%EV -5.87%E -1.92%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.08%EV -8.97%E -3.38%K -5.44%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-06 00:05
Bet Right🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.65%EV -13.04%E -5.22%K -8.69%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.04%EV -5.87%E -1.92%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.32%EV -5.53%E -2.01%K -3.16%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-06 00:10
FanDuel🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.07%EV -4.34%E -1.58%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -7.41%E -2.47%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.70%EV -7.25%E -2.69%K -4.27%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-06 00:05
Bovada🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.70%EV -6.08%E -2.25%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -7.41%E -2.47%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.07%EV -5.53%E -2.01%K -3.16%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-06 00:09
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.70%EV -6.08%E -2.25%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -7.41%E -2.47%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.07%EV -5.53%E -2.01%K -3.16%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-06 00:05
Betway🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.70%EV -6.08%E -2.25%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -7.41%E -2.47%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.07%EV -5.53%E -2.01%K -3.16%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-06 00:10
Unibet (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.48%EV -6.08%E -2.25%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -7.41%E -2.47%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.48%EV -7.25%E -2.69%K -4.27%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-06 00:00
theScore Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.48%EV -6.08%E -2.25%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -7.41%E -2.47%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.48%EV -7.25%E -2.69%K -4.27%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-06 00:00
BoyleSports🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.17%EV -8.86%E -3.38%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.71%EV -7.41%E -2.47%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.12%EV -7.25%E -2.69%K -4.27%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-05 23:55
BetRivers🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.79%EV -11.30%E -4.43%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.42%EV -7.41%E -2.47%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.80%EV -7.25%E -2.69%K -4.27%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-06 00:01
betfred_uk🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -13.04%E -5.22%K -8.69%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -7.41%E -2.47%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -5.53%E -2.01%K -3.16%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-06 00:10
BetMGM🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.52%EV -6.08%E -2.25%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -8.95%E -3.03%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.89%EV -5.53%E -2.01%K -3.16%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-06 00:05
Betr (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.28%EV -13.04%E -5.22%K -8.69%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.74%EV -8.95%E -3.03%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.98%EV -5.53%E -2.01%K -3.16%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-06 00:05
Betclic (FR)🎯2.53I 39.53%NM 35.31%EV -11.99%E -4.74%K -7.84%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 30.59%EV -9.88%E -3.38%K -5.14%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.10%EV -10.00%E -3.82%K -6.17%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-06 00:00
NetBet (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.11%EV -13.04%E -5.22%K -8.69%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 30.06%EV -9.88%E -3.38%K -5.14%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 34.83%EV -13.43%E -5.33%K -8.84%G +0.000%13.9%2026-09-06 00:05
PlayUp🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.75%EV -7.82%E -2.95%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.76%EV -10.50%E -3.62%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.49%EV -5.53%E -2.01%K -3.16%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-05 23:50
Winamax (DE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.97%EV -9.56%E -3.68%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.35%EV -10.50%E -3.62%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.68%EV -7.25%E -2.69%K -4.27%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-05 23:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.26%EV -8.52%E -3.24%K -5.22%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.07%EV -10.50%E -3.62%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.66%EV -10.69%E -4.11%K -6.68%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-06 00:05
Paddy Power🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.35%EV -8.86%E -3.38%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.03%EV -10.50%E -3.62%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.62%EV -10.69%E -4.11%K -6.68%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-06 00:05
LiveScore Bet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 35.60%EV -13.73%E -5.54%K -9.28%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.44%EV -10.50%E -3.62%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.96%EV -10.69%E -4.11%K -6.68%G +0.000%13.3%2026-09-06 00:05
Virgin Bet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 35.60%EV -13.73%E -5.54%K -9.28%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.44%EV -10.50%E -3.62%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.96%EV -10.69%E -4.11%K -6.68%G +0.000%13.3%2026-09-06 00:05
Unibet (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 35.88%EV -14.78%E -6.03%K -10.19%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.31%EV -10.50%E -3.62%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.81%EV -10.69%E -4.11%K -6.68%G +0.000%13.8%2026-09-06 00:00
Sky Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 33.98%EV -9.56%E -3.68%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.68%EV -11.11%E -3.86%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.34%EV -14.12%E -5.65%K -9.41%G +0.000%13.2%2026-09-06 00:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 35.80%EV -14.78%E -6.03%K -10.19%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.46%EV -11.11%E -3.86%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.74%EV -10.69%E -4.11%K -6.68%G +0.000%14.0%2026-09-06 00:10
Winamax (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.00%EV -11.30%E -4.43%K -7.29%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.32%EV -12.04%E -4.22%K -6.51%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.68%EV -8.97%E -3.38%K -5.44%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-06 00:00
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (5)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Kalshi◎2.86I 34.97%NM 34.61%3.12I 32.05%NM 31.72%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.67%1.0%2026-09-06 00:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.96I 33.78%NM 33.37%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.36%2.80I 35.71%NM 35.28%1.2%2026-09-06 00:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.96I 33.78%NM 33.37%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.36%2.80I 35.71%NM 35.28%1.2%2026-09-06 00:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.96I 33.78%NM 33.37%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.36%2.80I 35.71%NM 35.28%1.2%2026-09-06 00:10
Smarkets◎2.90I 34.48%NM 33.74%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.06%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.20%2.2%2026-09-06 00:10