The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Velez Sarsfield BA v Deportivo Riestra

Kickoff: 2026-02-25 22:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

38 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Velez Sarsfield BA (Local)

Prediction 47.56%2.10fair odd
EV -4.88%
Edge -2.44%
Kelly -4.88%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.35%47.63%47.54%49.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.931.942.0055.56%51.83%51.41%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Deportivo Riestra (Visit)

Prediction 18.98%5.27fair odd
EV +10.83%
Edge +1.85%
Kelly +2.24%
Growth +0.242%

assuming max odds 5.84

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.46%18.93%19.03%20.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.334.904.905.8423.09%20.43%20.41%17.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 33.46%2.99fair odd
EV -2.97%
Edge -1.02%
Kelly -1.56%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.20%33.43%33.43%34.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.762.802.9041.67%36.21%35.71%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Velez Sarsfield BA (Local): 47.56%; Deportivo Riestra (Visit): 18.98%; Draw: 33.46%. For Deportivo Riestra (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.27. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.84, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.83%.

Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 49.56%EV -7.73%E -3.98%K -8.22%G +0.000%5.84I 17.12%NM 16.46%EV +10.83%E +1.85%K +2.24%G +0.242%2.83I 35.34%NM 33.97%EV -5.31%E -1.88%K -2.90%G +0.000%4.0%2026-02-25 22:25
Pinnacle🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 48.80%EV -5.83%E -2.94%K -5.95%G +0.000%5.44I 18.38%NM 17.76%EV +3.24%E +0.596%K +0.730%G +0.024%2.89I 34.60%NM 33.44%EV -3.30%E -1.14%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.5%2026-02-25 22:25
Everygame🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.88%EV -9.16%E -4.79%K -10.06%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.78%EV -0.364%E -0.069%K -0.086%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.34%EV -6.31%E -2.25%K -3.51%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-25 22:24
FanDuel🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.05%EV -4.88%E -2.44%K -4.88%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.10%EV -1.31%E -0.253%K -0.313%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.85%EV -9.66%E -3.58%K -5.68%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-25 22:25
LowVig.ag🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.56%EV -4.88%E -2.44%K -4.88%G +0.000%5.15I 19.42%NM 18.47%EV -2.26%E -0.439%K -0.545%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.97%EV -6.31%E -2.25%K -3.51%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-25 22:19
BetOnline.ag🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.56%EV -4.88%E -2.44%K -4.88%G +0.000%5.15I 19.42%NM 18.47%EV -2.26%E -0.439%K -0.545%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.97%EV -6.31%E -2.25%K -3.51%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-25 22:20
Unibet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.05%EV -8.68%E -4.52%K -9.44%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.47%EV -3.21%E -0.630%K -0.783%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.48%EV -2.97%E -1.02%K -1.56%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-25 22:24
Unibet (SE)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.05%EV -8.68%E -4.52%K -9.44%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.47%EV -3.21%E -0.630%K -0.783%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.48%EV -2.97%E -1.02%K -1.56%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-25 22:25
BetRivers🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 49.45%EV -10.11%E -5.35%K -11.36%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.32%EV -3.21%E -0.630%K -0.783%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.23%EV -2.97%E -1.02%K -1.56%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-25 22:20
Marathon Bet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.12%EV -7.73%E -3.98%K -8.22%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.30%EV -3.21%E -0.630%K -0.783%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.58%EV -6.98%E -2.51%K -3.92%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-25 22:14
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.47%EV -10.58%E -5.63%K -12.03%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.24%EV -3.21%E -0.630%K -0.783%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.29%EV -3.64%E -1.26%K -1.93%G +0.000%7.5%2026-02-25 22:20
Fanatics🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.58%EV -4.88%E -2.44%K -4.88%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.03%EV -5.11%E -1.02%K -1.28%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.39%EV -4.64%E -1.63%K -2.51%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-25 19:45
Unibet (UK)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.55%EV -5.83%E -2.94%K -5.95%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -5.11%E -1.02%K -1.28%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.62%EV -6.31%E -2.25%K -3.51%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-25 22:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.93%EV -7.25%E -3.72%K -7.64%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.69%EV -5.11%E -1.02%K -1.28%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.38%EV -6.31%E -2.25%K -3.51%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-25 22:25
DraftKings🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.93%EV -7.25%E -3.72%K -7.64%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.69%EV -5.11%E -1.02%K -1.28%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.38%EV -6.31%E -2.25%K -3.51%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-25 22:25
SportsBet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.71%EV -4.88%E -2.44%K -4.88%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.69%EV -5.11%E -1.02%K -1.28%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.60%EV -9.66%E -3.58%K -5.68%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-25 22:25
Bovada🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.45%EV -9.16%E -4.79%K -10.06%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.51%EV -5.11%E -1.02%K -1.28%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.05%EV -6.31%E -2.25%K -3.51%G +0.000%8.1%2026-02-25 22:25
BetAnything🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.07%EV -11.06%E -5.91%K -12.71%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.73%EV -7.01%E -1.43%K -1.80%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.20%EV -4.64%E -1.63%K -2.51%G +0.000%9.0%2026-02-25 21:59
Virgin Bet🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 49.20%EV -12.49%E -6.79%K -14.86%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.47%EV -7.01%E -1.43%K -1.80%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.33%EV -6.31%E -2.25%K -3.51%G +0.000%10.5%2026-02-25 22:20
LiveScore Bet🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 49.20%EV -12.49%E -6.79%K -14.86%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.47%EV -7.01%E -1.43%K -1.80%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.33%EV -6.31%E -2.25%K -3.51%G +0.000%10.5%2026-02-25 22:20
Betsson🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.10%EV -7.25%E -3.72%K -7.64%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.34%EV -7.96%E -1.64%K -2.07%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.57%EV -3.64%E -1.26%K -1.93%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-25 22:25
NordicBet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.10%EV -7.25%E -3.72%K -7.64%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.34%EV -7.96%E -1.64%K -2.07%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.57%EV -3.64%E -1.26%K -1.93%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-25 22:24
theScore Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.93%EV -4.88%E -2.44%K -4.88%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.55%EV -8.90%E -1.86%K -2.34%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.52%EV -6.31%E -2.25%K -3.51%G +0.000%6.5%2026-02-25 22:25
BetMGM🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.55%EV -4.88%E -2.44%K -4.88%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.60%EV -9.85%E -2.07%K -2.63%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.85%EV -7.99%E -2.90%K -4.56%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-25 22:10
Betway🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.46%EV -7.25%E -3.72%K -7.64%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.48%EV -9.85%E -2.07%K -2.63%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.05%EV -6.31%E -2.25%K -3.51%G +0.000%8.0%2026-02-25 22:25
PlayUp🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.46%EV -7.25%E -3.72%K -7.64%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.48%EV -9.85%E -2.07%K -2.63%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.05%EV -6.31%E -2.25%K -3.51%G +0.000%8.0%2026-02-25 22:24
BoyleSports🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.18%EV -7.25%E -3.72%K -7.64%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.37%EV -9.85%E -2.07%K -2.63%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.45%EV -7.99%E -2.90%K -4.56%G +0.000%8.7%2026-02-25 16:44
Bet Right🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.18%EV -7.25%E -3.72%K -7.64%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.37%EV -9.85%E -2.07%K -2.63%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.45%EV -7.99%E -2.90%K -4.56%G +0.000%8.7%2026-02-25 22:25
Paddy Power🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.41%EV -7.25%E -3.72%K -7.64%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.05%EV -9.85%E -2.07%K -2.63%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.54%EV -12.34%E -4.71%K -7.61%G +0.000%10.5%2026-02-25 22:25
Betclic (FR)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 47.43%EV -10.58%E -5.63%K -12.03%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 19.18%EV -11.75%E -2.53%K -3.22%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 33.40%EV -10.66%E -3.99%K -6.38%G +0.000%12.2%2026-02-25 22:24
Betr (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.60%EV -7.25%E -3.72%K -7.64%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.75%EV -12.70%E -2.76%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.65%EV -9.66%E -3.58%K -5.68%G +0.000%10.1%2026-02-25 22:24
Winamax (DE)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.27%EV -8.68%E -4.52%K -9.44%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.73%EV -12.70%E -2.76%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.00%EV -7.99%E -2.90%K -4.56%G +0.000%10.2%2026-02-25 22:25
Sky Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.52%EV -9.16%E -4.79%K -10.06%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.31%EV -12.70%E -2.76%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.17%EV -13.01%E -5.00%K -8.13%G +0.000%12.6%2026-02-25 22:25
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 47.34%EV -11.06%E -5.91%K -12.71%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.25%EV -12.70%E -2.76%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.41%EV -11.33%E -4.28%K -6.87%G +0.000%13.0%2026-02-25 22:25
NetBet (FR)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 47.38%EV -12.96%E -7.08%K -15.62%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.27%EV -14.60%E -3.24%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.35%EV -13.01%E -5.00%K -8.13%G +0.000%15.3%2026-02-25 22:23
PMU (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 46.51%EV -14.39%E -7.99%K -17.99%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 18.60%EV -14.60%E -3.24%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 34.88%EV -19.70%E -8.21%K -14.07%G +0.000%19.4%2026-02-25 22:24
Winamax (FR)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 46.80%EV -10.58%E -5.63%K -12.03%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.00%EV -16.50%E -3.75%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.20%EV -11.33%E -4.28%K -6.87%G +0.000%13.7%2026-02-25 22:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 45.35%EV -9.16%E -4.79%K -10.06%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.00%EV -17.82%E -4.12%K -5.35%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.65%EV -16.35%E -6.54%K -10.90%G +0.000%15.5%2026-02-25 22:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.02I 49.50%NM 49.16%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.83%2.92I 34.25%NM 34.01%0.7%2026-02-25 22:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.02I 49.50%NM 49.16%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.83%2.92I 34.25%NM 34.01%0.7%2026-02-25 22:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.02I 49.50%NM 49.16%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.83%2.92I 34.25%NM 34.01%0.7%2026-02-25 22:25
Matchbook◎2.02I 49.50%NM 49.05%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.79%2.90I 34.48%NM 34.16%0.9%2026-02-25 22:25
Smarkets◎2.00I 50.00%NM 48.54%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.98%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.48%3.0%2026-02-25 22:25