Language:English
Velez Sarsfield BA v CA Tigre BA
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Velez Sarsfield BA (Local)
Prediction 42.57%2.35fair odd
EV -2.10%
Edge -0.912%
Kelly -1.61%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.93%42.57%42.52%44.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.042.172.172.3049.02%46.17%45.98%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
CA Tigre BA (Visit)
Prediction 25.25%3.96fair odd
EV +3.29%
Edge +0.804%
Kelly +1.06%
Growth +0.035%
assuming max odds 4.09
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.53%25.27%25.28%27.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.663.704.0929.41%27.32%27.03%24.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 32.18%3.11fair odd
EV -3.46%
Edge -1.15%
Kelly -1.73%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.66%32.16%32.20%33.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.892.903.0037.04%34.58%34.48%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Velez Sarsfield BA (Local): 42.57%; CA Tigre BA (Visit): 25.25%; Draw: 32.18%. For CA Tigre BA (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.96. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.09, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.29%.
Sportsbook Odds (36 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 43.36%EV -5.08%E -2.28%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 4.09I 24.45%NM 23.64%EV +3.29%E +0.804%K +1.06%G +0.035% | 2.93I 34.13%NM 33.00%EV -5.71%E -1.95%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-09-21 00:24 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 44.04%EV -7.21%E -3.31%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 4.08I 24.51%NM 23.53%EV +3.04%E +0.744%K +0.986%G +0.030% | 2.96I 33.78%NM 32.43%EV -4.75%E -1.60%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-21 00:24 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 43.30%EV -5.08%E -2.28%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 3.94I 25.38%NM 24.51%EV -0.498%E -0.126%K -0.169%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.19%EV -3.46%E -1.15%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-09-21 00:10 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 43.30%EV -5.08%E -2.28%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 3.94I 25.38%NM 24.51%EV -0.498%E -0.126%K -0.169%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.19%EV -3.46%E -1.15%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-09-21 00:14 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 43.30%EV -5.08%E -2.28%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 3.94I 25.38%NM 24.51%EV -0.498%E -0.126%K -0.169%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.19%EV -3.46%E -1.15%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-09-21 00:09 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.54%EV -6.36%E -2.89%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.63%EV -4.03%E -1.06%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.84%EV -8.29%E -2.91%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-21 00:22 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.54%EV -6.36%E -2.89%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.63%EV -4.03%E -1.06%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.84%EV -8.29%E -2.91%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-21 00:23 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.34%EV -8.48%E -3.95%K -7.38%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.52%EV -4.03%E -1.06%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.13%EV -6.68%E -2.30%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-21 00:04 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.87%EV -6.36%E -2.89%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -5.30%E -1.41%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.97%EV -5.07%E -1.72%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-21 00:04 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.64%EV -6.36%E -2.89%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.01%EV -5.30%E -1.41%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.35%EV -6.68%E -2.30%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-21 00:24 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.11%EV -8.48%E -3.95%K -7.38%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.71%EV -5.30%E -1.41%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.18%EV -7.32%E -2.54%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-21 00:09 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.24I 44.64%NM 42.29%EV -4.65%E -2.08%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.60%EV -6.56%E -1.77%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.11%EV -5.07%E -1.72%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-21 00:24 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.04%EV -4.23%E -1.88%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.57%EV -6.56%E -1.77%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.39%EV -6.03%E -2.07%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-21 00:24 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.04%EV -4.23%E -1.88%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.57%EV -6.56%E -1.77%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.39%EV -6.03%E -2.07%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-21 00:24 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.95%EV -4.23%E -1.88%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.51%EV -6.56%E -1.77%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.54%EV -6.68%E -2.30%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-21 00:24 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.29%EV -7.63%E -3.52%K -6.52%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -6.56%E -1.77%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.32%EV -3.46%E -1.15%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-21 00:14 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.29%EV -7.63%E -3.52%K -6.52%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -6.56%E -1.77%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.32%EV -3.46%E -1.15%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-21 00:15 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.50%EV -6.36%E -2.89%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -6.56%E -1.77%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -6.68%E -2.30%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-21 00:13 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.30%EV -6.36%E -2.89%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.15%EV -6.56%E -1.77%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 32.54%EV -7.97%E -2.79%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-21 00:24 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.49%EV -10.61%E -5.05%K -9.65%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.02%EV -7.82%E -2.14%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.49%EV -6.68%E -2.30%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-21 00:24 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.96%EV -6.36%E -2.89%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -9.08%E -2.52%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.39%EV -8.29%E -2.91%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-21 00:24 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.80%EV -10.61%E -5.05%K -9.65%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -9.08%E -2.52%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.66%EV -3.46%E -1.15%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-21 00:19 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.10%EV -9.76%E -4.60%K -8.71%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.38%EV -9.08%E -2.52%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.51%EV -6.68%E -2.30%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-09-21 00:14 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.10%EV -10.61%E -5.05%K -9.65%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.14%EV -9.08%E -2.52%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.76%EV -8.29%E -2.91%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-09-21 00:19 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.61%EV -10.61%E -5.05%K -9.65%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.85%EV -9.08%E -2.52%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.54%EV -11.51%E -4.18%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-09-21 00:24 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 43.03%EV -11.46%E -5.51%K -10.61%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.57%EV -11.61%E -3.32%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.40%EV -8.29%E -2.91%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-09-21 00:15 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 43.03%EV -11.46%E -5.51%K -10.61%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.57%EV -11.61%E -3.32%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.40%EV -8.29%E -2.91%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-09-21 00:14 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.06%EV -10.61%E -5.05%K -9.65%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.23%EV -11.61%E -3.32%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.71%EV -13.11%E -4.86%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-09-21 00:24 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.29%EV -8.48%E -3.95%K -7.38%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.36%EV -12.87%E -3.73%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.35%EV -6.68%E -2.30%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-09-21 00:24 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.15%EV -10.61%E -5.05%K -9.65%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.66%EV -12.87%E -3.73%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.19%EV -11.51%E -4.18%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-09-21 00:03 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 42.99%EV -12.74%E -6.21%K -12.13%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.54%EV -12.87%E -3.73%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.47%EV -9.90%E -3.53%K -5.50%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-09-21 00:24 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 42.41%EV -11.89%E -5.74%K -11.11%G +0.000% | 3.42I 29.24%NM 25.67%EV -13.63%E -3.99%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 31.92%EV -11.51%E -4.18%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-09-21 00:25 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -2.10%E -0.912%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -14.14%E -4.16%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.38%EV -3.46%E -1.15%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-18 11:25 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.25%EV -4.23%E -1.88%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.30%EV -14.14%E -4.16%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.46%EV -5.07%E -1.72%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-18 11:25 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.47%EV -10.61%E -5.05%K -9.65%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.23%EV -14.14%E -4.16%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.30%EV -8.29%E -2.91%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-09-21 00:24 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 42.94%EV -13.17%E -6.45%K -12.66%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.77%EV -14.14%E -4.16%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.29%EV -9.90%E -3.53%K -5.50%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-09-21 00:19 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.70% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.56% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.74% | 1.8% | 2026-09-21 00:24 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.70% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.56% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.74% | 1.8% | 2026-09-21 00:24 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.70% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.56% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.74% | 1.8% | 2026-09-21 00:24 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.27I 44.05%NM 43.17% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.50% | 3.03I 33.00%NM 32.34% | 2.1% | 2026-09-21 00:04 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.28I 43.86%NM 42.92% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.46% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.62% | 2.2% | 2026-09-21 00:14 |