Language:English
Union Santa Fe v Independiente
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Union Santa Fe (Local)
Prediction 39.81%2.51fair odd
EV -3.25%
Edge -1.34%
Kelly -2.28%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.43
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.26%39.81%39.83%40.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.312.302.4345.45%43.25%43.48%41.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Independiente (Visit)
Prediction 29.44%3.40fair odd
EV +3.04%
Edge +0.870%
Kelly +1.22%
Growth +0.037%
assuming max odds 3.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.63%29.43%29.47%30.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.853.153.103.5035.09%31.77%32.26%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 30.75%3.25fair odd
EV -3.15%
Edge -1.00%
Kelly -1.47%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.15
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.62%30.76%30.69%31.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.823.023.003.1535.46%33.14%33.33%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Union Santa Fe (Local): 39.81%; Independiente (Visit): 29.44%; Draw: 30.75%. For Independiente (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.40. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.04%.
Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.36I 42.37%NM 40.97%EV -6.04%E -2.56%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.63%EV +3.04%E +0.870%K +1.22%G +0.037% | 3.08I 32.47%NM 31.40%EV -5.30%E -1.72%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-09-19 19:39 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.36I 42.37%NM 40.97%EV -6.04%E -2.56%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.63%EV +3.04%E +0.870%K +1.22%G +0.037% | 3.08I 32.47%NM 31.40%EV -5.30%E -1.72%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-09-19 19:39 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.36I 42.37%NM 40.97%EV -6.04%E -2.56%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.63%EV +3.04%E +0.870%K +1.22%G +0.037% | 3.08I 32.47%NM 31.40%EV -5.30%E -1.72%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-09-19 19:39 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.70%EV -5.25%E -2.20%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 3.44I 29.07%NM 28.16%EV +1.28%E +0.372%K +0.524%G +0.007% | 3.11I 32.15%NM 31.14%EV -4.38%E -1.41%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-09-19 19:40 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.55%EV -7.63%E -3.29%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.08%EV -1.37%E -0.409%K -0.584%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.36%EV -7.76%E -2.59%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-19 19:40 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.55%EV -7.63%E -3.29%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.08%EV -1.37%E -0.409%K -0.584%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.36%EV -7.76%E -2.59%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-19 19:40 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.55%EV -8.43%E -3.67%K -6.48%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.84%EV -1.37%E -0.409%K -0.584%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.61%EV -9.30%E -3.15%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-19 19:39 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.59%EV -8.43%E -3.67%K -6.48%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -2.84%E -0.862%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -7.76%E -2.59%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-19 19:40 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.59%EV -8.43%E -3.67%K -6.48%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -2.84%E -0.862%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -7.76%E -2.59%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-19 19:40 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.36I 42.37%NM 40.26%EV -6.04%E -2.56%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 3.29I 30.40%NM 28.88%EV -3.14%E -0.954%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 3.08I 32.47%NM 30.85%EV -5.30%E -1.72%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-19 19:39 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.30%EV -6.44%E -2.74%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.14%EV -4.32%E -1.33%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.55%EV -4.69%E -1.51%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-19 19:39 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.29I 43.67%NM 40.60%EV -8.83%E -3.86%K -6.84%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.61%EV -4.32%E -1.33%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 3.02I 33.11%NM 30.79%EV -7.15%E -2.37%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-19 19:40 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.63%EV -9.23%E -4.05%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.50%EV -4.32%E -1.33%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.87%EV -7.76%E -2.59%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-19 19:40 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.92%EV -6.44%E -2.74%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -5.79%E -1.81%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.76%EV -6.23%E -2.04%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-19 19:40 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.64%EV -8.43%E -3.67%K -6.48%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -5.79%E -1.81%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -4.69%E -1.51%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-19 19:39 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.79%EV -12.41%E -5.64%K -10.34%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -5.79%E -1.81%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -11.45%E -3.98%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-09-19 19:40 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -4.45%E -1.85%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -8.73%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -4.69%E -1.51%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-19 19:39 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 38.75%EV -3.25%E -1.34%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -8.73%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.87%EV -6.23%E -2.04%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-19 19:39 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.37I 42.19%NM 39.54%EV -5.64%E -2.38%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.23%EV -8.73%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.23%EV -4.69%E -1.51%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-19 19:40 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.06%EV -8.43%E -3.67%K -6.48%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.72%EV -8.73%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.21%EV -6.23%E -2.04%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-19 19:30 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -8.43%E -3.67%K -6.48%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -8.73%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -7.76%E -2.59%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-19 19:40 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.43%EV -12.41%E -5.64%K -10.34%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.69%EV -8.73%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.88%EV -11.45%E -3.98%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-09-19 19:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -6.44%E -2.74%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -10.20%E -3.35%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -3.15%E -1.00%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-19 19:40 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -6.44%E -2.74%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -10.20%E -3.35%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -3.15%E -1.00%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-19 19:39 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.66%EV -4.45%E -1.85%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.42%EV -10.20%E -3.35%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.93%EV -7.76%E -2.59%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-19 19:39 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.87%EV -8.43%E -3.67%K -6.48%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.07%EV -10.20%E -3.35%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.07%EV -6.23%E -2.04%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-19 19:39 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.35%EV -6.44%E -2.74%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.82%EV -11.68%E -3.89%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.83%EV -4.69%E -1.51%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-09-19 19:39 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.26%EV -5.25%E -2.20%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.35%EV -11.68%E -3.89%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.40%EV -10.84%E -3.74%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-14 00:10 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -8.43%E -3.67%K -6.48%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -11.68%E -3.89%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -7.76%E -2.59%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-09-19 19:40 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.13%EV -10.42%E -4.63%K -8.34%G +0.000% | 2.97I 33.67%NM 29.65%EV -12.56%E -4.23%K -6.38%G +0.000% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 31.22%EV -13.30%E -4.72%K -7.31%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-09-19 19:38 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -8.43%E -3.67%K -6.48%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.77%EV -13.15%E -4.46%K -6.74%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.76%EV -6.23%E -2.04%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-09-19 19:40 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.80%EV -10.42%E -4.63%K -8.34%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.35%EV -13.15%E -4.46%K -6.74%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.85%EV -7.76%E -2.59%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-09-19 19:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.80%EV -10.42%E -4.63%K -8.34%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.35%EV -13.15%E -4.46%K -6.74%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.85%EV -7.76%E -2.59%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-09-19 19:39 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 39.93%EV -12.41%E -5.64%K -10.34%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 29.78%EV -13.15%E -4.46%K -6.74%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.29%EV -10.84%E -3.74%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-09-19 19:39 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.07%EV -8.43%E -3.67%K -6.48%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.98%EV -14.62%E -5.04%K -7.69%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.95%EV -7.76%E -2.59%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-09-19 19:40 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 39.32%EV -11.22%E -5.03%K -9.12%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.24%EV -14.62%E -5.04%K -7.69%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.45%EV -11.45%E -3.98%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-09-19 19:39 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 39.72%EV -12.41%E -5.64%K -10.34%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 30.66%EV -16.09%E -5.65%K -8.70%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 29.62%EV -9.30%E -3.15%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 14.4% | 2026-09-19 19:40 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.61% | 3.33I 30.03%NM 29.74% | 3.23I 30.96%NM 30.66% | 1.0% | 2026-09-19 19:34 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.44I 40.98%NM 40.46% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.20% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.34% | 1.3% | 2026-09-19 19:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.44I 40.98%NM 40.46% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.20% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.34% | 1.3% | 2026-09-19 19:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.42I 41.32%NM 40.66% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.11% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.23% | 1.6% | 2026-09-19 19:40 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.42I 41.32%NM 40.29% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.26% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.45% | 2.6% | 2026-09-19 19:40 |