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Union Santa Fe v Independiente

2026-09-19 19:45 UTC — Primera División - Argentina

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Union Santa Fe (Local)

Prediction 42.18%2.37fair odd
EV -3.84%
Edge -1.68%
Kelly -3.00%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.25%42.18%41.94%43.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.982.122.152.2850.51%47.09%46.51%43.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Independiente (Visit)

Prediction 27.30%3.66fair odd
EV -4.44%
Edge -1.27%
Kelly -1.78%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.30%27.30%27.35%28.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.293.283.5033.33%30.35%30.49%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.52%3.28fair odd
EV -3.85%
Edge -1.22%
Kelly -1.79%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.65%30.52%30.70%30.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.802.973.003.1535.71%33.66%33.33%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Union Santa Fe (Local): 42.18%; Independiente (Visit): 27.30%; Draw: 30.52%. For Union Santa Fe (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.37. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.28, with an expected value of -3.84%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.68%EV -3.84%E -1.68%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 27.47%EV -5.54%E -1.60%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 30.85%EV -5.99%E -1.94%K -2.88%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-06 19:30
Marathon Bet🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 41.66%EV -5.53%E -2.47%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -7.17%E -2.11%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 30.90%EV -7.82%E -2.59%K -3.87%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-06 19:19
SportsBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.46%EV -7.21%E -3.28%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.88%EV -8.54%E -2.55%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -3.85%E -1.22%K -1.79%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-06 18:40
FanDuel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -7.21%E -3.28%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -9.90%E -3.00%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -5.38%E -1.74%K -2.56%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-06 18:40
Codere (IT)🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 42.79%EV -8.90%E -4.12%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.41%EV -4.44%E -1.27%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -8.43%E -2.81%K -4.22%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-06 18:40
Paddy Power🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.05%EV -9.32%E -4.34%K -8.11%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -11.27%E -3.47%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.13%EV -8.43%E -2.81%K -4.22%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-06 18:40
Sky Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.25%EV -11.43%E -5.44%K -10.39%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.88%EV -18.10%E -6.03%K -9.05%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.87%EV -11.48%E -3.96%K -6.04%G +0.000%15.4%2026-09-06 18:40
Winamax (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.00%EV -13.54%E -6.61%K -12.90%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.12%EV -11.27%E -3.47%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.88%EV -9.96%E -3.38%K -5.11%G +0.000%13.4%2026-09-06 18:40
Betclic (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.17%EV -15.65%E -7.82%K -15.65%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 26.32%EV -10.45%E -3.19%K -4.58%G +0.000%2.83I 35.34%NM 30.51%EV -13.62%E -4.81%K -7.44%G +0.000%15.8%2026-09-06 18:39
Winamax (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 42.98%EV -15.65%E -7.82%K -15.65%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.86%EV -12.63%E -3.95%K -5.74%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.16%EV -13.01%E -4.56%K -7.03%G +0.000%16.3%2026-09-06 18:40
Unibet (FR)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 43.17%EV -16.49%E -8.33%K -16.83%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.30%EV -11.27%E -3.47%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.53%EV -14.54%E -5.19%K -8.08%G +0.000%17.0%2026-09-06 18:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.