Idioma:Español
Union Santa Fe v Independiente
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Union Santa Fe (Local)
Predicción 39.81%2.51momio equitativo
EV -3.25%
Ventaja -1.34%
Kelly -2.28%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.43
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
38.26%39.81%39.83%40.97%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.202.312.302.4345.45%43.25%43.48%41.15%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Independiente (Visitante)
Predicción 29.44%3.40momio equitativo
EV +3.04%
Ventaja +0.870%
Kelly +1.22%
Crecimiento +0.037%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.50
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.63%29.43%29.47%30.98%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.853.153.103.5035.09%31.77%32.26%28.57%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Empate
Predicción 30.75%3.25momio equitativo
EV -3.15%
Ventaja -1.00%
Kelly -1.47%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.15
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
29.62%30.76%30.69%31.61%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.823.023.003.1535.46%33.14%33.33%31.75%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Union Santa Fe (Local): 39.81%; Independiente (Visitante): 29.44%; Empate: 30.75%. Para Independiente (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.40. 4 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 3.50, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +3.04%.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (37 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.36I 42.37%NM 40.97%EV -6.04%E -2.56%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.63%EV +3.04%E +0.870%K +1.22%G +0.037% | 3.08I 32.47%NM 31.40%EV -5.30%E -1.72%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-09-19 19:39 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.36I 42.37%NM 40.97%EV -6.04%E -2.56%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.63%EV +3.04%E +0.870%K +1.22%G +0.037% | 3.08I 32.47%NM 31.40%EV -5.30%E -1.72%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-09-19 19:39 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.36I 42.37%NM 40.97%EV -6.04%E -2.56%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.63%EV +3.04%E +0.870%K +1.22%G +0.037% | 3.08I 32.47%NM 31.40%EV -5.30%E -1.72%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-09-19 19:39 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.70%EV -5.25%E -2.20%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 3.44I 29.07%NM 28.16%EV +1.28%E +0.372%K +0.524%G +0.007% | 3.11I 32.15%NM 31.14%EV -4.38%E -1.41%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-09-19 19:40 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.55%EV -7.63%E -3.29%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.08%EV -1.37%E -0.409%K -0.584%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.36%EV -7.76%E -2.59%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-19 19:40 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.55%EV -7.63%E -3.29%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.08%EV -1.37%E -0.409%K -0.584%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.36%EV -7.76%E -2.59%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-19 19:40 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.55%EV -8.43%E -3.67%K -6.48%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.84%EV -1.37%E -0.409%K -0.584%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.61%EV -9.30%E -3.15%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-19 19:39 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.59%EV -8.43%E -3.67%K -6.48%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -2.84%E -0.862%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -7.76%E -2.59%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-19 19:40 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.59%EV -8.43%E -3.67%K -6.48%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -2.84%E -0.862%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -7.76%E -2.59%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-19 19:40 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.36I 42.37%NM 40.26%EV -6.04%E -2.56%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 3.29I 30.40%NM 28.88%EV -3.14%E -0.954%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 3.08I 32.47%NM 30.85%EV -5.30%E -1.72%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-19 19:39 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.30%EV -6.44%E -2.74%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.14%EV -4.32%E -1.33%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.55%EV -4.69%E -1.51%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-19 19:39 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.29I 43.67%NM 40.60%EV -8.83%E -3.86%K -6.84%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.61%EV -4.32%E -1.33%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 3.02I 33.11%NM 30.79%EV -7.15%E -2.37%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-19 19:40 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.63%EV -9.23%E -4.05%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.50%EV -4.32%E -1.33%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.87%EV -7.76%E -2.59%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-19 19:40 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.92%EV -6.44%E -2.74%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -5.79%E -1.81%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.76%EV -6.23%E -2.04%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-19 19:40 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.64%EV -8.43%E -3.67%K -6.48%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -5.79%E -1.81%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -4.69%E -1.51%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-19 19:39 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.79%EV -12.41%E -5.64%K -10.34%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -5.79%E -1.81%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -11.45%E -3.98%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-09-19 19:40 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -4.45%E -1.85%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -8.73%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -4.69%E -1.51%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-19 19:39 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 38.75%EV -3.25%E -1.34%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -8.73%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.87%EV -6.23%E -2.04%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-19 19:39 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.37I 42.19%NM 39.54%EV -5.64%E -2.38%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.23%EV -8.73%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.23%EV -4.69%E -1.51%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-19 19:40 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.06%EV -8.43%E -3.67%K -6.48%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.72%EV -8.73%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.21%EV -6.23%E -2.04%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-19 19:30 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -8.43%E -3.67%K -6.48%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -8.73%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -7.76%E -2.59%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-19 19:40 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.43%EV -12.41%E -5.64%K -10.34%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.69%EV -8.73%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.88%EV -11.45%E -3.98%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-09-19 19:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -6.44%E -2.74%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -10.20%E -3.35%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -3.15%E -1.00%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-19 19:40 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -6.44%E -2.74%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -10.20%E -3.35%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -3.15%E -1.00%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-19 19:39 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.66%EV -4.45%E -1.85%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.42%EV -10.20%E -3.35%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.93%EV -7.76%E -2.59%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-19 19:39 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.87%EV -8.43%E -3.67%K -6.48%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.07%EV -10.20%E -3.35%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.07%EV -6.23%E -2.04%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-19 19:39 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.35%EV -6.44%E -2.74%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.82%EV -11.68%E -3.89%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.83%EV -4.69%E -1.51%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-09-19 19:39 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.26%EV -5.25%E -2.20%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.35%EV -11.68%E -3.89%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.40%EV -10.84%E -3.74%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-14 00:10 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -8.43%E -3.67%K -6.48%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -11.68%E -3.89%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -7.76%E -2.59%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-09-19 19:40 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.13%EV -10.42%E -4.63%K -8.34%G +0.000% | 2.97I 33.67%NM 29.65%EV -12.56%E -4.23%K -6.38%G +0.000% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 31.22%EV -13.30%E -4.72%K -7.31%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-09-19 19:38 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -8.43%E -3.67%K -6.48%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.77%EV -13.15%E -4.46%K -6.74%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.76%EV -6.23%E -2.04%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-09-19 19:40 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.80%EV -10.42%E -4.63%K -8.34%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.35%EV -13.15%E -4.46%K -6.74%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.85%EV -7.76%E -2.59%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-09-19 19:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.80%EV -10.42%E -4.63%K -8.34%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.35%EV -13.15%E -4.46%K -6.74%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.85%EV -7.76%E -2.59%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-09-19 19:39 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 39.93%EV -12.41%E -5.64%K -10.34%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 29.78%EV -13.15%E -4.46%K -6.74%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.29%EV -10.84%E -3.74%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-09-19 19:39 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.07%EV -8.43%E -3.67%K -6.48%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.98%EV -14.62%E -5.04%K -7.69%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.95%EV -7.76%E -2.59%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-09-19 19:40 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 39.32%EV -11.22%E -5.03%K -9.12%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.24%EV -14.62%E -5.04%K -7.69%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.45%EV -11.45%E -3.98%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-09-19 19:39 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 39.72%EV -12.41%E -5.64%K -10.34%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 30.66%EV -16.09%E -5.65%K -8.70%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 29.62%EV -9.30%E -3.15%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 14.4% | 2026-09-19 19:40 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (5)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.61% | 3.33I 30.03%NM 29.74% | 3.23I 30.96%NM 30.66% | 1.0% | 2026-09-19 19:34 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.44I 40.98%NM 40.46% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.20% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.34% | 1.3% | 2026-09-19 19:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.44I 40.98%NM 40.46% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.20% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.34% | 1.3% | 2026-09-19 19:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.42I 41.32%NM 40.66% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.11% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.23% | 1.6% | 2026-09-19 19:40 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.42I 41.32%NM 40.29% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.26% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.45% | 2.6% | 2026-09-19 19:40 |