Language:English
Union Santa Fe v Deportivo Riestra
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Union Santa Fe (Local)
Prediction 50.48%1.98fair odd
EV -2.58%
Edge -1.34%
Kelly -2.78%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.93
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.72%50.68%50.59%52.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.721.821.831.9358.14%54.83%54.64%51.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Deportivo Riestra (Visit)
Prediction 19.43%5.15fair odd
EV +12.70%
Edge +2.19%
Kelly +2.65%
Growth +0.336%
assuming max odds 5.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.10%19.21%19.36%21.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.844.805.8023.81%20.64%20.83%17.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 30.09%3.32fair odd
EV -2.80%
Edge -0.867%
Kelly -1.26%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.23
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.90%30.11%30.05%31.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.053.083.2335.71%32.76%32.47%30.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Union Santa Fe (Local): 50.48%; Deportivo Riestra (Visit): 19.43%; Draw: 30.09%. For Deportivo Riestra (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.15. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +12.70%.
Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.77%EV -10.66%E -6.02%K -13.84%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.10%EV +12.70%E +2.19%K +2.65%G +0.336% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.13%EV -9.72%E -3.24%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-03 20:04 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.00%EV -7.63%E -4.17%K -9.19%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.30%EV +6.87%E +1.25%K +1.53%G +0.105% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.70%EV -6.71%E -2.17%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-03 20:04 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.00%EV -7.63%E -4.17%K -9.19%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.30%EV +6.87%E +1.25%K +1.53%G +0.105% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.70%EV -6.71%E -2.17%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-03 20:05 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.59%EV -11.67%E -6.67%K -15.56%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV +6.87%E +1.25%K +1.53%G +0.105% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.68%EV -9.72%E -3.24%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-04-03 20:05 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.87%EV -6.11%E -3.29%K -7.11%G +0.000% | 5.42I 18.45%NM 17.80%EV +5.32%E +0.981%K +1.20%G +0.064% | 3.18I 31.45%NM 30.34%EV -4.30%E -1.35%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-04-03 20:10 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.34%EV -7.63%E -4.17%K -9.19%G +0.000% | 5.32I 18.80%NM 18.00%EV +3.37%E +0.634%K +0.781%G +0.026% | 3.23I 30.96%NM 29.65%EV -2.80%E -0.867%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-04-03 20:04 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.99%EV -9.14%E -5.08%K -11.43%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.82%EV +2.01%E +0.384%K +0.474%G +0.010% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.19%EV -6.71%E -2.17%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-03 20:05 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.58%EV -5.61%E -3.00%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -2.84%E -0.569%K -0.711%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.51%EV -6.71%E -2.17%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-03 20:05 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.02%EV -7.63%E -4.17%K -9.19%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.67%EV -2.84%E -0.569%K -0.711%G +0.000% | 3.08I 32.47%NM 30.31%EV -7.31%E -2.37%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-03 20:05 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.23%EV -11.67%E -6.67%K -15.56%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -2.84%E -0.569%K -0.711%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.49%EV -6.71%E -2.17%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-04-03 20:04 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.19%EV -11.67%E -6.67%K -15.56%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.92%EV -2.84%E -0.569%K -0.711%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.89%EV -12.73%E -4.39%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-04-03 20:05 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 51.37%EV -12.68%E -7.33%K -17.37%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.77%EV -2.84%E -0.569%K -0.711%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.86%EV -13.33%E -4.63%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-04-03 20:05 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.63%EV -5.61%E -3.00%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.32%EV -4.79%E -0.977%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.05%EV -5.21%E -1.65%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-03 20:03 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.73%EV -4.10%E -2.16%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.28%EV -4.79%E -0.977%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.98%EV -8.22%E -2.69%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-03 20:10 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 49.87%EV -4.60%E -2.43%K -5.17%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.23%EV -4.79%E -0.977%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.90%EV -8.22%E -2.69%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-03 20:10 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.17%EV -7.63%E -4.17%K -9.19%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.11%EV -4.79%E -0.977%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.73%EV -5.21%E -1.65%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-03 20:10 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.79%EV -6.62%E -3.58%K -7.79%G +0.000% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.37%EV -5.76%E -1.19%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.83%EV -5.21%E -1.65%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-03 20:05 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.79%EV -6.62%E -3.58%K -7.79%G +0.000% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.37%EV -5.76%E -1.19%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.83%EV -5.21%E -1.65%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-03 20:05 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.93%EV -6.62%E -3.58%K -7.79%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.63%EV -6.73%E -1.40%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.44%EV -3.70%E -1.16%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-03 20:05 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.94%EV -5.11%E -2.72%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.77%EV -7.70%E -1.62%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.29%EV -6.71%E -2.17%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-03 19:50 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.75%EV -8.13%E -4.47%K -9.92%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.45%EV -7.70%E -1.62%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.80%EV -6.71%E -2.17%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-03 20:05 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.59%EV -5.11%E -2.72%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.84%EV -8.67%E -1.85%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.57%EV -8.22%E -2.69%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-03 19:58 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.76%EV -7.63%E -4.17%K -9.19%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.37%EV -8.67%E -1.85%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.87%EV -11.23%E -3.81%K -5.76%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-03 20:05 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.76%EV -7.63%E -4.17%K -9.19%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.37%EV -8.67%E -1.85%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.87%EV -11.23%E -3.81%K -5.76%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-03 20:05 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.72%EV -2.58%E -1.34%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.44%EV -10.62%E -2.31%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.83%EV -8.22%E -2.69%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-03 19:40 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.76%EV -5.61%E -3.00%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.23%EV -10.62%E -2.31%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -6.71%E -2.17%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-03 19:50 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.03%EV -6.62%E -3.58%K -7.79%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.12%EV -10.62%E -2.31%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.85%EV -6.71%E -2.17%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-03 20:04 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 49.56%EV -8.64%E -4.77%K -10.66%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.50%EV -10.62%E -2.31%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.93%EV -12.73%E -4.39%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-04-03 20:10 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.54%EV -7.63%E -4.17%K -9.19%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.55%EV -12.56%E -2.79%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.90%EV -3.70%E -1.16%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-03 20:05 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.56%EV -6.62%E -3.58%K -7.79%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -12.56%E -2.79%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.06%EV -8.22%E -2.69%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-04-03 20:05 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 50.62%EV -13.18%E -7.66%K -18.31%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.35%EV -12.56%E -2.79%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.03%EV -12.73%E -4.39%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 14.8% | 2026-04-03 20:05 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 49.94%EV -12.68%E -7.33%K -17.37%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.20%EV -12.56%E -2.79%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 30.86%EV -15.74%E -5.62%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 15.7% | 2026-04-03 20:05 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 49.88%EV -9.65%E -5.39%K -12.21%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 20.06%EV -13.53%E -3.04%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 2.97I 33.67%NM 30.06%EV -10.62%E -3.58%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-04-03 19:49 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 49.98%EV -8.13%E -4.47%K -9.92%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.67%EV -14.50%E -3.30%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.34%EV -6.71%E -2.17%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-04-03 19:45 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.09%EV -6.62%E -3.58%K -7.79%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.64%EV -14.50%E -3.30%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.27%EV -9.72%E -3.24%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-04-03 20:09 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 49.94%EV -10.66%E -6.02%K -13.84%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.09%EV -14.50%E -3.30%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 29.97%EV -11.23%E -3.81%K -5.76%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-04-03 19:49 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 49.58%EV -10.15%E -5.70%K -13.02%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.01%EV -18.39%E -4.38%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.41%EV -9.72%E -3.24%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-04-03 19:45 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.89I 52.91%NM 52.48% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.53% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.99% | 0.8% | 2026-04-03 20:10 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.89I 52.91%NM 52.48% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.53% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.99% | 0.8% | 2026-04-03 20:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.88I 53.19%NM 52.61% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.48% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.91% | 1.1% | 2026-04-03 20:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.88I 53.19%NM 52.61% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.48% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.91% | 1.1% | 2026-04-03 20:10 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.82I 54.95%NM 53.88% | 5.88I 17.01%NM 16.68% | 3.33I 30.03%NM 29.45% | 2.0% | 2026-04-03 20:05 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.87I 53.48%NM 52.04% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.07% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.89% | 2.8% | 2026-04-03 20:05 |