Language:English
Union Santa Fe v Boca Juniors
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Union Santa Fe (Local)
Prediction 32.73%3.06fair odd
EV +1.45%
Edge +0.468%
Kelly +0.691%
Growth +0.010%
assuming max odds 3.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.42%32.65%32.68%33.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.852.853.1040.00%35.15%35.09%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Boca Juniors (Visit)
Prediction 32.64%3.06fair odd
EV -0.117%
Edge -0.038%
Kelly -0.057%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.06
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.09%32.82%32.58%36.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.802.833.0640.00%35.70%35.40%32.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 34.63%2.89fair odd
EV -3.03%
Edge -1.08%
Kelly -1.68%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.20%34.53%34.75%36.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.672.702.8042.55%37.49%37.11%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Union Santa Fe (Local): 32.73%; Boca Juniors (Visit): 32.64%; Draw: 34.63%. For Union Santa Fe (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.06. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.45%.
Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.43%EV +1.45%E +0.468%K +0.691%G +0.010% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 35.87%EV -14.15%E -5.38%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.69%EV -3.03%E -1.08%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-16 00:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.43%EV +1.45%E +0.468%K +0.691%G +0.010% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 35.87%EV -14.15%E -5.38%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.69%EV -3.03%E -1.08%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-16 00:55 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.78%EV -0.186%E -0.061%K -0.091%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 35.69%EV -14.15%E -5.38%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.53%EV -3.03%E -1.08%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-15 23:35 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.42%EV -1.82%E -0.607%K -0.911%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.79%EV -16.76%E -6.57%K -10.82%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.80%EV -6.49%E -2.40%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-03-16 00:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.42%EV -1.82%E -0.607%K -0.911%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.79%EV -16.76%E -6.57%K -10.82%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.80%EV -6.49%E -2.40%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-03-16 00:55 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.98I 33.56%NM 32.00%EV -2.48%E -0.831%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 2.93I 34.13%NM 32.55%EV -4.36%E -1.49%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 2.69I 37.17%NM 35.45%EV -6.84%E -2.54%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-16 00:25 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.98I 33.56%NM 32.00%EV -2.48%E -0.831%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 2.93I 34.13%NM 32.55%EV -4.36%E -1.49%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 2.69I 37.17%NM 35.45%EV -6.84%E -2.54%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-16 00:25 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.96I 33.78%NM 32.42%EV -3.13%E -1.06%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 3.06I 32.68%NM 31.36%EV -0.117%E -0.038%K -0.057%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.22%EV -8.22%E -3.10%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-16 00:55 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.80%EV -3.46%E -1.17%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 3.06I 32.68%NM 31.62%EV -0.117%E -0.038%K -0.057%G +0.000% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 35.58%EV -5.80%E -2.13%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-03-16 00:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.56%EV -3.46%E -1.17%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.06%EV -18.40%E -7.36%K -12.26%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.39%EV -6.49%E -2.40%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-03-16 00:55 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -5.10%E -1.76%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.16%EV -3.71%E -1.26%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.13%EV -6.49%E -2.40%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-16 00:55 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.55%EV -5.10%E -1.76%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.12%EV -6.97%E -2.45%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.33%EV -4.76%E -1.73%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-16 00:50 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.53%EV -5.10%E -1.76%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.53%EV -5.34%E -1.84%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -6.49%E -2.40%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-16 00:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.67%EV -5.75%E -2.00%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.22%EV -4.69%E -1.61%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 35.11%EV -7.18%E -2.68%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-16 00:54 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.67%EV -5.75%E -2.00%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.22%EV -4.69%E -1.61%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 35.11%EV -7.18%E -2.68%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-16 00:50 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.61%EV -5.75%E -2.00%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.61%EV -5.99%E -2.08%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -6.49%E -2.40%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-16 00:50 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.87I 34.84%NM 32.79%EV -6.08%E -2.12%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.61%EV -8.60%E -3.07%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.61%EV -3.03%E -1.08%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-16 00:35 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.05%EV -6.73%E -2.36%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.40%EV -2.08%E -0.692%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.55%EV -8.22%E -3.10%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-16 00:54 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.91%EV -6.73%E -2.36%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.35%EV -5.34%E -1.84%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.74%EV -6.49%E -2.40%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-16 00:51 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.91%EV -6.73%E -2.36%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.35%EV -5.34%E -1.84%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.74%EV -6.49%E -2.40%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-16 00:55 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.88%EV -6.73%E -2.36%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.76%EV -3.71%E -1.26%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.36%EV -8.22%E -3.10%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-16 00:54 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.84I 35.21%NM 32.88%EV -7.06%E -2.49%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 2.93I 34.13%NM 31.87%EV -4.36%E -1.49%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.24%EV -8.22%E -3.10%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-16 00:55 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -8.37%E -2.99%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.74%EV -6.97%E -2.45%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.93%EV -4.76%E -1.73%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-16 00:49 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.31%EV -8.37%E -2.99%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.09%EV -2.08%E -0.692%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.60%EV -9.26%E -3.54%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-16 00:55 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.09%EV -8.37%E -2.99%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.95%EV -5.34%E -1.84%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.96%EV -8.22%E -3.10%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-16 00:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.93%EV -8.37%E -2.99%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.93%EV -8.60%E -3.07%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -6.49%E -2.40%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-16 00:50 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.33%EV -10.00%E -3.64%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.73%EV -8.60%E -3.07%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.94%EV -6.49%E -2.40%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-03-16 00:55 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.13%EV -10.00%E -3.64%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.13%EV -10.24%E -3.72%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.74%EV -6.49%E -2.40%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-03-16 00:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.73%EV -10.00%E -3.64%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.26%EV -5.99%E -2.08%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.01%EV -13.42%E -5.37%K -8.95%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-03-16 00:55 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.43%EV -10.00%E -3.64%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 33.27%EV -12.52%E -4.67%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.30%EV -9.96%E -3.83%K -6.22%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-03-16 00:53 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.31%EV -10.00%E -3.64%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 33.52%EV -13.50%E -5.09%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.17%EV -9.96%E -3.83%K -6.22%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-03-16 00:50 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.52%EV -11.64%E -4.31%K -6.85%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.32%EV -8.60%E -3.07%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.15%EV -8.22%E -3.10%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-03-16 00:55 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.39%EV -11.64%E -4.31%K -6.85%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.41%EV -14.48%E -5.53%K -8.94%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.20%EV -3.03%E -1.08%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-03-15 23:55 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.85%EV -11.64%E -4.31%K -6.85%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.68%EV -8.60%E -3.07%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.48%EV -13.42%E -5.37%K -8.95%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-03-16 00:55 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.19%EV -11.64%E -4.31%K -6.85%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 33.05%EV -14.15%E -5.38%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 34.76%EV -13.42%E -5.37%K -8.95%G +0.000% | 15.1% | 2026-03-16 00:55 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.16%EV -11.64%E -4.31%K -6.85%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 33.39%EV -15.13%E -5.82%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 34.45%EV -12.73%E -5.05%K -8.37%G +0.000% | 15.2% | 2026-03-16 00:55 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 33.12%EV -13.28%E -5.01%K -8.05%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 33.12%EV -13.50%E -5.09%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 33.76%EV -9.96%E -3.83%K -6.22%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-03-16 00:50 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 33.25%EV -18.19%E -7.27%K -12.12%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 31.37%EV -13.50%E -5.09%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 35.38%EV -18.61%E -7.92%K -13.79%G +0.000% | 20.3% | 2026-03-16 00:55 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.00I 33.33%NM 33.07% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.50% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 35.43% | 0.8% | 2026-03-16 00:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.00I 33.33%NM 33.07% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.50% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 35.43% | 0.8% | 2026-03-16 00:55 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.67% | 3.03I 33.00%NM 32.67% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.67% | 1.0% | 2026-03-16 00:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.99% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.42% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 35.60% | 1.1% | 2026-03-16 00:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.99% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.42% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 35.60% | 1.1% | 2026-03-16 00:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.98I 33.56%NM 33.05% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.27% | 2.76I 36.23%NM 35.68% | 1.5% | 2026-03-16 00:55 |