L’École des cotes

Union Santa Fe v Boca Juniors

Coup d’envoi : 2026-03-16 01:00 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

38 opérateurs (15 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Union Santa Fe (Local)

Prévision 32.73%3.06cote équitable
EV +1.45%
Avantage +0.468%
Kelly +0.691%
Croissance +0.010%

avec la cote maximale 3.10

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
30.42%32.65%32.68%33.52%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.502.852.853.1040.00%35.15%35.09%32.26%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Boca Juniors (Visiteur)

Prévision 32.64%3.06cote équitable
EV -0.117%
Avantage -0.038%
Kelly -0.057%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.06

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
31.09%32.82%32.58%36.06%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.502.802.833.0640.00%35.70%35.40%32.68%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 34.63%2.89cote équitable
EV -3.03%
Avantage -1.08%
Kelly -1.68%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.80

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
32.20%34.53%34.75%36.22%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.352.672.702.8042.55%37.49%37.11%35.71%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (38 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMatch nulMargeMise à jour
Unibet3.10I 32.26%NM 30.43%EV +1.45%E +0.468%K +0.691%G +0.010%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.87%EV -14.15%E -5.38%K -8.68%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.69%EV -3.03%E -1.08%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-16 00:55
Unibet (SE)3.10I 32.26%NM 30.43%EV +1.45%E +0.468%K +0.691%G +0.010%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.87%EV -14.15%E -5.38%K -8.68%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.69%EV -3.03%E -1.08%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-16 00:55
BetRivers3.05I 32.79%NM 30.78%EV -0.186%E -0.061%K -0.091%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.69%EV -14.15%E -5.38%K -8.68%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.53%EV -3.03%E -1.08%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-15 23:35
Virgin Bet3.00I 33.33%NM 30.42%EV -1.82%E -0.607%K -0.911%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.79%EV -16.76%E -6.57%K -10.82%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.80%EV -6.49%E -2.40%K -3.82%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-16 00:55
LiveScore Bet3.00I 33.33%NM 30.42%EV -1.82%E -0.607%K -0.911%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.79%EV -16.76%E -6.57%K -10.82%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.80%EV -6.49%E -2.40%K -3.82%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-16 00:55
LowVig.ag2.98I 33.56%NM 32.00%EV -2.48%E -0.831%K -1.25%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 32.55%EV -4.36%E -1.49%K -2.26%G +0.000%2.69I 37.17%NM 35.45%EV -6.84%E -2.54%K -4.05%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-16 00:25
BetOnline.ag2.98I 33.56%NM 32.00%EV -2.48%E -0.831%K -1.25%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 32.55%EV -4.36%E -1.49%K -2.26%G +0.000%2.69I 37.17%NM 35.45%EV -6.84%E -2.54%K -4.05%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-16 00:25
1xBet2.96I 33.78%NM 32.42%EV -3.13%E -1.06%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 31.36%EV -0.117%E -0.038%K -0.057%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.22%EV -8.22%E -3.10%K -4.98%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-16 00:55
Pinnacle2.95I 33.90%NM 32.80%EV -3.46%E -1.17%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 31.62%EV -0.117%E -0.038%K -0.057%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 35.58%EV -5.80%E -2.13%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-16 00:55
LeoVegas (SE)2.95I 33.90%NM 30.56%EV -3.46%E -1.17%K -1.77%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.06%EV -18.40%E -7.36%K -12.26%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.39%EV -6.49%E -2.40%K -3.82%G +0.000%10.9%2026-03-16 00:55
DraftKings2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -5.10%E -1.76%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.16%EV -3.71%E -1.26%K -1.90%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.13%EV -6.49%E -2.40%K -3.82%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-16 00:55
Fanatics2.90I 34.48%NM 32.55%EV -5.10%E -1.76%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.12%EV -6.97%E -2.45%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.33%EV -4.76%E -1.73%K -2.72%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-16 00:50
theScore Bet2.90I 34.48%NM 32.53%EV -5.10%E -1.76%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.53%EV -5.34%E -1.84%K -2.81%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -6.49%E -2.40%K -3.82%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-16 00:50
Betsson2.88I 34.72%NM 32.67%EV -5.75%E -2.00%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.22%EV -4.69%E -1.61%K -2.44%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.11%EV -7.18%E -2.68%K -4.28%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-16 00:54
NordicBet2.88I 34.72%NM 32.67%EV -5.75%E -2.00%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.22%EV -4.69%E -1.61%K -2.44%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.11%EV -7.18%E -2.68%K -4.28%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-16 00:50
Unibet (UK)2.88I 34.72%NM 32.61%EV -5.75%E -2.00%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.61%EV -5.99%E -2.08%K -3.19%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -6.49%E -2.40%K -3.82%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-16 00:50
Ladbrokes (UK)2.87I 34.84%NM 32.79%EV -6.08%E -2.12%K -3.25%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.61%EV -8.60%E -3.07%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.61%EV -3.03%E -1.08%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-16 00:35
FanDuel2.85I 35.09%NM 33.05%EV -6.73%E -2.36%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.40%EV -2.08%E -0.692%K -1.04%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.55%EV -8.22%E -3.10%K -4.98%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-16 00:54
Bovada2.85I 35.09%NM 32.91%EV -6.73%E -2.36%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.35%EV -5.34%E -1.84%K -2.81%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.74%EV -6.49%E -2.40%K -3.82%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-16 00:51
BetAnything2.85I 35.09%NM 32.91%EV -6.73%E -2.36%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.35%EV -5.34%E -1.84%K -2.81%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.74%EV -6.49%E -2.40%K -3.82%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-16 00:55
Everygame2.85I 35.09%NM 32.88%EV -6.73%E -2.36%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.76%EV -3.71%E -1.26%K -1.90%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.36%EV -8.22%E -3.10%K -4.98%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-16 00:54
Marathon Bet2.84I 35.21%NM 32.88%EV -7.06%E -2.49%K -3.84%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 31.87%EV -4.36%E -1.49%K -2.26%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.24%EV -8.22%E -3.10%K -4.98%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-16 00:55
BetMGM2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -8.37%E -2.99%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.74%EV -6.97%E -2.45%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.93%EV -4.76%E -1.73%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-16 00:49
SportsBet2.80I 35.71%NM 33.31%EV -8.37%E -2.99%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.09%EV -2.08%E -0.692%K -1.04%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.60%EV -9.26%E -3.54%K -5.72%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-16 00:55
PlayUp2.80I 35.71%NM 33.09%EV -8.37%E -2.99%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.95%EV -5.34%E -1.84%K -2.81%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.96%EV -8.22%E -3.10%K -4.98%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-16 00:50
Betway2.80I 35.71%NM 32.93%EV -8.37%E -2.99%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.93%EV -8.60%E -3.07%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -6.49%E -2.40%K -3.82%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-16 00:50
Bet Right2.75I 36.36%NM 33.33%EV -10.00%E -3.64%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.73%EV -8.60%E -3.07%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.94%EV -6.49%E -2.40%K -3.82%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-16 00:55
Winamax (DE)2.75I 36.36%NM 33.13%EV -10.00%E -3.64%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.13%EV -10.24%E -3.72%K -5.85%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.74%EV -6.49%E -2.40%K -3.82%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-16 00:50
Paddy Power2.75I 36.36%NM 32.73%EV -10.00%E -3.64%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.26%EV -5.99%E -2.08%K -3.19%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.01%EV -13.42%E -5.37%K -8.95%G +0.000%11.1%2026-03-16 00:55
Betclic (FR)2.75I 36.36%NM 32.43%EV -10.00%E -3.64%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 33.27%EV -12.52%E -4.67%K -7.45%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.30%EV -9.96%E -3.83%K -6.22%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-16 00:53
Parions Sport (FR)2.75I 36.36%NM 32.31%EV -10.00%E -3.64%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.52%EV -13.50%E -5.09%K -8.18%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.17%EV -9.96%E -3.83%K -6.22%G +0.000%12.6%2026-03-16 00:50
Betr (AU)2.70I 37.04%NM 33.52%EV -11.64%E -4.31%K -6.85%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.32%EV -8.60%E -3.07%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.15%EV -8.22%E -3.10%K -4.98%G +0.000%10.5%2026-03-16 00:55
BoyleSports2.70I 37.04%NM 33.39%EV -11.64%E -4.31%K -6.85%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.41%EV -14.48%E -5.53%K -8.94%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.20%EV -3.03%E -1.08%K -1.68%G +0.000%10.9%2026-03-15 23:55
Sky Bet2.70I 37.04%NM 32.85%EV -11.64%E -4.31%K -6.85%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.68%EV -8.60%E -3.07%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.48%EV -13.42%E -5.37%K -8.95%G +0.000%12.8%2026-03-16 00:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.70I 37.04%NM 32.19%EV -11.64%E -4.31%K -6.85%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.05%EV -14.15%E -5.38%K -8.68%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.76%EV -13.42%E -5.37%K -8.95%G +0.000%15.1%2026-03-16 00:55
NetBet (FR)2.70I 37.04%NM 32.16%EV -11.64%E -4.31%K -6.85%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.39%EV -15.13%E -5.82%K -9.46%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 34.45%EV -12.73%E -5.05%K -8.37%G +0.000%15.2%2026-03-16 00:55
Winamax (FR)2.65I 37.74%NM 33.12%EV -13.28%E -5.01%K -8.05%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.12%EV -13.50%E -5.09%K -8.18%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.76%EV -9.96%E -3.83%K -6.22%G +0.000%13.9%2026-03-16 00:50
PMU (FR)2.50I 40.00%NM 33.25%EV -18.19%E -7.27%K -12.12%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 31.37%EV -13.50%E -5.09%K -8.18%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 35.38%EV -18.61%E -7.92%K -13.79%G +0.000%20.3%2026-03-16 00:55
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.00I 33.33%NM 33.07%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.50%2.80I 35.71%NM 35.43%0.8%2026-03-16 00:55
Matchbook3.00I 33.33%NM 33.07%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.50%2.80I 35.71%NM 35.43%0.8%2026-03-16 00:55
Kalshi2.94I 34.01%NM 33.67%3.03I 33.00%NM 32.67%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.67%1.0%2026-03-16 00:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.00I 33.33%NM 32.99%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.42%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.60%1.1%2026-03-16 00:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.00I 33.33%NM 32.99%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.42%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.60%1.1%2026-03-16 00:55
Smarkets2.98I 33.56%NM 33.05%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.27%2.76I 36.23%NM 35.68%1.5%2026-03-16 00:55