Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Talleres v Lanus

2026-08-12 00:00 UTC — Primera División - Argentina

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Talleres (Local)

Prediction 39.17%2.55fair odd
EV -4.03%
Edge -1.64%
Kelly -2.78%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.29%39.34%39.23%40.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.282.302.4546.51%43.78%43.48%40.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Lanus (Visit)

Prediction 27.50%3.64fair odd
EV -4.86%
Edge -1.41%
Kelly -1.98%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.46

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.76%27.56%27.38%28.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.283.253.4633.33%30.51%30.77%28.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 33.33%3.00fair odd
EV -0.004%
Edge -0.001%
Kelly -0.002%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.12%33.10%33.38%34.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.782.753.0038.46%35.99%36.36%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Talleres (Local): 39.17%; Lanus (Visit): 27.50%; Draw: 33.33%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.0001. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.0000, with an expected value of -0.004%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Fanatics2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -4.03%E -1.64%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -6.51%E -1.92%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -8.34%E -3.03%K -4.76%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-03 14:14
1xBet2.44I 40.98%NM 38.90%EV -4.42%E -1.81%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 27.43%EV -4.86%E -1.41%K -1.98%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.66%EV -6.00%E -2.13%K -3.30%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-03 14:55
Bovada2.40I 41.67%NM 39.02%EV -5.99%E -2.50%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -6.51%E -1.92%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.44%EV -6.67%E -2.38%K -3.71%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-03 14:54
BoyleSports2.38I 42.02%NM 38.73%EV -6.77%E -2.85%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -10.64%E -3.27%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.92%EV -6.67%E -2.38%K -3.71%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-03 14:14
Codere (IT)2.34I 42.74%NM 39.54%EV -8.34%E -3.56%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.82%EV -5.14%E -1.49%K -2.10%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.64%EV -8.34%E -3.03%K -4.76%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-03 14:18
SportsBet2.30I 43.48%NM 40.76%EV -9.91%E -4.31%K -7.62%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.99%EV -7.89%E -2.35%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -0.004%E -0.001%K -0.002%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-03 14:18
FanDuel2.30I 43.48%NM 40.59%EV -9.91%E -4.31%K -7.62%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -9.26%E -2.81%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -0.004%E -0.001%K -0.002%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-03 14:19
betfred_uk2.30I 43.48%NM 39.90%EV -9.91%E -4.31%K -7.62%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -10.64%E -3.27%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.86%EV -4.00%E -1.39%K -2.13%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-03 14:45
theScore Bet2.30I 43.48%NM 39.55%EV -9.91%E -4.31%K -7.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -6.51%E -1.92%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.69%EV -10.00%E -3.70%K -5.88%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-03 14:20
Paddy Power2.20I 45.45%NM 40.97%EV -13.82%E -6.28%K -11.52%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.73%EV -10.64%E -3.27%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.30%EV -4.00%E -1.39%K -2.13%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-03 14:18
Winamax (DE)2.20I 45.45%NM 39.79%EV -13.82%E -6.28%K -11.52%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.79%EV -13.39%E -4.25%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.42%EV -10.00%E -3.70%K -5.88%G +0.000%14.2%2026-08-03 14:19
Unibet (FR)2.20I 45.45%NM 39.47%EV -13.82%E -6.28%K -11.52%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.13%EV -12.01%E -3.75%K -5.46%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.40%EV -13.34%E -5.13%K -8.34%G +0.000%15.2%2026-08-03 14:20
Sky Bet2.15I 46.51%NM 40.02%EV -15.78%E -7.34%K -13.72%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.68%EV -17.51%E -5.84%K -8.76%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.29%EV -8.34%E -3.03%K -4.76%G +0.000%16.2%2026-08-03 14:19
Betclic (FR)2.15I 46.51%NM 40.02%EV -15.78%E -7.34%K -13.72%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.89%EV -12.01%E -3.75%K -5.46%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.09%EV -13.34%E -5.13%K -8.34%G +0.000%16.2%2026-08-03 14:19
Winamax (FR)2.15I 46.51%NM 39.92%EV -15.78%E -7.34%K -13.72%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.69%EV -14.76%E -4.76%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 32.39%EV -11.67%E -4.40%K -7.07%G +0.000%16.5%2026-08-03 14:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets2.18I 45.87%NM 39.31%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.21%2.56I 39.06%NM 33.48%16.7%2026-08-03 14:25