The School of Odds
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Sarmiento de Junin v Racing Club

Kickoff: 2026-03-11 01:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

36 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sarmiento de Junin (Local)

Prediction 27.08%3.69fair odd
EV +4.24%
Edge +1.10%
Kelly +1.49%
Growth +0.063%

assuming max odds 3.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.55%26.94%27.15%28.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.153.473.453.8531.75%28.78%28.99%25.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Racing Club (Visit)

Prediction 41.63%2.40fair odd
EV -3.00%
Edge -1.29%
Kelly -2.26%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.90%41.84%41.57%45.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.182.202.3351.28%45.78%45.45%42.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 31.29%3.20fair odd
EV -1.43%
Edge -0.453%
Kelly -0.663%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.86%31.22%31.29%32.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.652.973.003.1537.74%33.72%33.33%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sarmiento de Junin (Local): 27.08%; Racing Club (Visit): 41.63%; Draw: 31.29%. For Sarmiento de Junin (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.69. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.85, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.24%.

Sportsbook Odds (36 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.55%EV +4.24%E +1.10%K +1.49%G +0.063%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.44%EV -13.41%E -6.45%K -12.41%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.01%EV -1.43%E -0.453%K -0.663%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-11 00:29
Unibet (SE)🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.55%EV +4.24%E +1.10%K +1.49%G +0.063%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.44%EV -13.41%E -6.45%K -12.41%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.01%EV -1.43%E -0.453%K -0.663%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-11 00:30
BetRivers🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.67%EV +2.89%E +0.760%K +1.03%G +0.030%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.08%EV -13.41%E -6.45%K -12.41%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.25%EV -2.99%E -0.965%K -1.42%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-11 00:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.76%EV +1.53%E +0.409%K +0.558%G +0.009%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.29%EV -14.66%E -7.15%K -13.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.95%EV -2.99%E -0.965%K -1.42%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-11 00:30
1xBet🎯3.73I 26.81%NM 25.74%EV +0.993%E +0.266%K +0.364%G +0.004%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.67%EV -6.33%E -2.81%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 31.58%EV -4.87%E -1.60%K -2.39%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-11 00:50
Virgin Bet🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.61%EV +0.181%E +0.049%K +0.067%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.53%EV -16.74%E -8.37%K -16.74%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.86%EV -4.56%E -1.49%K -2.22%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-11 00:55
LiveScore Bet🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.61%EV +0.181%E +0.049%K +0.067%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.53%EV -16.74%E -8.37%K -16.74%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.86%EV -4.56%E -1.49%K -2.22%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-11 00:55
Pinnacle🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 26.55%EV -1.17%E -0.321%K -0.443%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 41.58%EV -3.00%E -1.29%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 31.87%EV -4.87%E -1.60%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-11 00:30
FanDuel🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -2.53%E -0.702%K -0.972%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -8.41%E -3.82%K -7.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -6.12%E -2.04%K -3.06%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-11 00:54
Marathon Bet🎯3.52I 28.41%NM 26.49%EV -4.69%E -1.33%K -1.86%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.00%EV -7.58%E -3.41%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 31.50%EV -7.37%E -2.49%K -3.76%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-11 00:55
BetOnline.ag🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.21%EV -5.23%E -1.50%K -2.09%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.05%EV -3.42%E -1.47%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.74%EV -6.12%E -2.04%K -3.06%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-10 23:24
LowVig.ag🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.21%EV -5.23%E -1.50%K -2.09%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.05%EV -3.42%E -1.47%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.74%EV -6.12%E -2.04%K -3.06%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-10 23:25
NordicBet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -5.23%E -1.50%K -2.09%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.90%EV -4.25%E -1.85%K -3.27%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.22%EV -8.62%E -2.95%K -4.49%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-11 00:30
Betsson🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -5.23%E -1.50%K -2.09%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -6.33%E -2.81%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -6.12%E -2.04%K -3.06%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-11 00:55
Bovada🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -5.23%E -1.50%K -2.09%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -8.41%E -3.82%K -7.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -6.12%E -2.04%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-11 00:55
Everygame🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -5.23%E -1.50%K -2.09%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.34%EV -6.33%E -2.81%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.08%EV -9.25%E -3.19%K -4.87%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-11 00:30
SportsBet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -5.23%E -1.50%K -2.09%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.89%EV -8.41%E -3.82%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.78%EV -9.25%E -3.19%K -4.87%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-11 00:55
DraftKings🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.40%EV -6.59%E -1.91%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.10%EV -4.25%E -1.85%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -6.12%E -2.04%K -3.06%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-11 00:35
Unibet (UK)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -6.59%E -1.91%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.63%EV -6.33%E -2.81%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.22%EV -6.12%E -2.04%K -3.06%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-10 22:10
BetAnything🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -6.59%E -1.91%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.63%EV -6.33%E -2.81%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.22%EV -6.12%E -2.04%K -3.06%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-11 00:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -7.94%E -2.34%K -3.31%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -6.33%E -2.81%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.40%EV -2.99%E -0.965%K -1.42%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-10 20:20
Fanatics🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -7.94%E -2.34%K -3.31%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -4.25%E -1.85%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.38%EV -6.12%E -2.04%K -3.06%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-10 22:35
BetMGM🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -7.94%E -2.34%K -3.31%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -8.41%E -3.82%K -7.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -6.12%E -2.04%K -3.06%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-10 20:19
PlayUp🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -7.94%E -2.34%K -3.31%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.02%EV -6.33%E -2.81%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.83%EV -9.25%E -3.19%K -4.87%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-11 00:30
BoyleSports🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -7.94%E -2.34%K -3.31%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -8.41%E -3.82%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -9.25%E -3.19%K -4.87%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-11 00:28
Paddy Power🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -7.94%E -2.34%K -3.31%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.04%EV -10.49%E -4.88%K -9.13%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.38%EV -9.87%E -3.43%K -5.25%G +0.000%10.6%2026-03-11 00:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 25.26%EV -7.94%E -2.34%K -3.31%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 42.94%EV -16.74%E -8.37%K -16.74%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 31.81%EV -15.51%E -5.74%K -9.12%G +0.000%16.4%2026-03-11 00:55
Betway🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -10.65%E -3.23%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.12%EV -6.33%E -2.81%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.84%EV -6.12%E -2.04%K -3.06%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-10 23:35
Bet Right🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -10.65%E -3.23%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -8.41%E -3.82%K -7.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -6.12%E -2.04%K -3.06%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-11 00:50
Parions Sport (FR)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.08%EV -10.65%E -3.23%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.56%EV -10.49%E -4.88%K -9.13%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.36%EV -10.81%E -3.79%K -5.85%G +0.000%11.9%2026-03-11 00:35
Sky Bet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 26.93%EV -10.65%E -3.23%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.33%EV -10.49%E -4.88%K -9.13%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.74%EV -12.38%E -4.42%K -6.88%G +0.000%12.5%2026-03-11 00:55
Betclic (FR)🎯3.28I 30.49%NM 27.26%EV -11.19%E -3.41%K -4.91%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.59%EV -10.49%E -4.88%K -9.13%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.15%EV -10.19%E -3.55%K -5.45%G +0.000%11.8%2026-03-11 00:33
Winamax (DE)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -12.00%E -3.69%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -8.41%E -3.82%K -7.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -6.12%E -2.04%K -3.06%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-10 22:10
Betr (AU)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.79%EV -12.00%E -3.69%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.06%EV -8.41%E -3.82%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.15%EV -9.25%E -3.19%K -4.87%G +0.000%10.7%2026-03-11 00:55
Winamax (FR)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 27.74%EV -14.71%E -4.67%K -6.84%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 41.61%EV -12.58%E -5.99%K -11.43%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.66%EV -10.81%E -3.79%K -5.85%G +0.000%14.5%2026-03-10 22:10
PMU (FR)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 26.29%EV -14.71%E -4.67%K -6.84%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 42.46%EV -18.82%E -9.65%K -19.81%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 31.25%EV -17.07%E -6.44%K -10.35%G +0.000%20.8%2026-03-11 00:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.80I 26.32%NM 26.11%2.34I 42.74%NM 42.40%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.50%0.8%2026-03-11 00:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.80I 26.32%NM 26.11%2.34I 42.74%NM 42.40%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.50%0.8%2026-03-11 00:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.80I 26.32%NM 26.11%2.34I 42.74%NM 42.40%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.50%0.8%2026-03-11 00:55
Matchbook◎3.80I 26.32%NM 26.11%2.34I 42.74%NM 42.40%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.50%0.8%2026-03-11 00:55
Smarkets◎3.75I 26.67%NM 26.14%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.25%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.62%2.0%2026-03-11 00:55