The School of Odds

Sarmiento de Junin v Argentinos Juniors

2026-07-23 22:30 — Primera División - Argentina

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (4 in analysis)

Option 1: Sarmiento de Junin (Local)

Odds
3.6027.78%Min
3.9725.20%Mean
4.0025.00%Median
4.2223.70%Max
Consensus probabilities
22.09%4.527Min
24.07%4.155Max
22.50%4.444Mean
22.54%4.437Median
22.54%4.437IQM
22.49%4.447Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 4.22 under the IQM model: 22.54%

EV -4.88%Edge -1.16%Kelly -1.52%Growth +0.000%

Option 2: Argentinos Juniors (Visit)

Odds
1.8554.05%Min
1.9750.74%Mean
1.9850.63%Median
2.0947.85%Max
Consensus probabilities
44.43%2.251Min
46.42%2.154Max
45.86%2.180Mean
45.69%2.189Median
45.69%2.189IQM
45.87%2.180Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 2.09 under the IQM model: 45.69%

EV -4.51%Edge -2.16%Kelly -4.13%Growth +0.000%

Option 3: Draw

Odds
2.6537.74%Min
2.8635.01%Mean
2.8834.72%Median
3.0033.33%Max
Consensus probabilities
30.94%3.232Min
32.00%3.125Max
31.64%3.161Mean
31.77%3.148Median
31.77%3.148IQM
31.64%3.160Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 3.00 under the IQM model: 31.77%

EV -4.69%Edge -1.56%Kelly -2.35%Growth +0.000%

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

BookmakerSarmiento de Junin (Local) ▼Argentinos Juniors (Visit)DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet4.22I 23.70% NM 22.52%EV -4.88% E -1.16% K -1.52% G +0.000%2.09I 47.85% NM 45.48%EV -4.51% E -2.16% K -4.13% G +0.000%2.97I 33.67% NM 32.00%EV -5.65% E -1.90% K -2.87% G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-03 19:40
Codere (IT)4.20I 23.81% NM 22.09%EV -5.33% E -1.27% K -1.67% G +0.000%2.02I 49.50% NM 45.92%EV -7.70% E -3.81% K -7.55% G +0.000%2.90I 34.48% NM 31.99%EV -7.87% E -2.71% K -4.14% G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-02 22:15
Marathon Bet4.15I 24.10% NM 22.49%EV -6.46% E -1.56% K -2.05% G +0.000%2.05I 48.78% NM 45.54%EV -6.33% E -3.09% K -6.03% G +0.000%2.92I 34.25% NM 31.97%EV -7.24% E -2.48% K -3.77% G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-03 19:40
SportsBet4.10I 24.39% NM 22.80%EV -7.58% E -1.85% K -2.45% G +0.000%2.03I 49.26% NM 46.04%EV -7.25% E -3.57% K -7.04% G +0.000%3.00I 33.33% NM 31.16%EV -4.69% E -1.56% K -2.35% G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-03 03:14
FanDuel4.10I 24.39% NM 22.64%EV -7.58% E -1.85% K -2.45% G +0.000%2.00I 50.00% NM 46.42%EV -8.62% E -4.31% K -8.62% G +0.000%3.00I 33.33% NM 30.94%EV -4.69% E -1.56% K -2.35% G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-03 03:14
BoyleSports4.00I 25.00% NM 22.78%EV -9.84% E -2.46% K -3.28% G +0.000%2.00I 50.00% NM 45.57%EV -8.62% E -4.31% K -8.62% G +0.000%2.88I 34.72% NM 31.65%EV -8.51% E -2.95% K -4.52% G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-03 11:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)4.00I 25.00% NM 22.52%EV -9.84% E -2.46% K -3.28% G +0.000%1.95I 51.28% NM 46.20%EV -10.90% E -5.59% K -11.48% G +0.000%2.88I 34.72% NM 31.28%EV -8.51% E -2.95% K -4.52% G +0.000%11.0%2026-07-03 03:15
Paddy Power4.00I 25.00% NM 22.52%EV -9.84% E -2.46% K -3.28% G +0.000%1.95I 51.28% NM 46.20%EV -10.90% E -5.59% K -11.48% G +0.000%2.88I 34.72% NM 31.28%EV -8.51% E -2.95% K -4.52% G +0.000%11.0%2026-07-03 03:14
Betclic (FR)3.83I 26.11% NM 22.09%EV -13.67% E -3.57% K -4.83% G +0.000%1.84I 54.35% NM 45.98%EV -15.93% E -8.66% K -18.96% G +0.000%2.65I 37.74% NM 31.93%EV -15.81% E -5.97% K -9.58% G +0.000%18.2%2026-07-02 22:03
Winamax (DE)3.80I 26.32% NM 22.95%EV -14.35% E -3.78% K -5.12% G +0.000%1.90I 52.63% NM 45.90%EV -13.19% E -6.94% K -14.65% G +0.000%2.80I 35.71% NM 31.15%EV -11.05% E -3.95% K -6.14% G +0.000%14.7%2026-07-02 23:00
Unibet (FR)3.80I 26.32% NM 22.28%EV -14.35% E -3.78% K -5.12% G +0.000%1.85I 54.05% NM 45.77%EV -15.47% E -8.36% K -18.20% G +0.000%2.65I 37.74% NM 31.95%EV -15.81% E -5.97% K -9.58% G +0.000%18.1%2026-07-02 20:59
Winamax (FR)3.65I 27.40% NM 23.04%EV -17.73% E -4.86% K -6.69% G +0.000%1.86I 53.76% NM 45.22%EV -15.01% E -8.07% K -17.46% G +0.000%2.65I 37.74% NM 31.74%EV -15.81% E -5.97% K -9.58% G +0.000%18.9%2026-07-02 22:59
Sky Bet3.60I 27.78% NM 24.07%EV -18.86% E -5.24% K -7.25% G +0.000%1.95I 51.28% NM 44.43%EV -10.90% E -5.59% K -11.48% G +0.000%2.75I 36.36% NM 31.50%EV -12.64% E -4.59% K -7.22% G +0.000%15.4%2026-07-03 03:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth