Language:English
San Lorenzo v Boca Juniors
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
San Lorenzo (Local)
Prediction 19.50%5.13fair odd
EV +4.50%
Edge +0.840%
Kelly +1.03%
Growth +0.047%
assuming max odds 5.36
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.90%19.61%19.48%21.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.684.755.3625.00%21.38%21.05%18.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Boca Juniors (Visit)
Prediction 49.57%2.02fair odd
EV -2.84%
Edge -1.45%
Kelly -2.96%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.96
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.10%49.52%49.53%50.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.751.881.881.9657.14%53.31%53.19%51.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 30.93%3.23fair odd
EV -3.49%
Edge -1.12%
Kelly -1.65%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.12
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.84%30.86%30.98%31.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.003.003.1235.71%33.38%33.33%32.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: San Lorenzo (Local): 19.50%; Boca Juniors (Visit): 49.57%; Draw: 30.93%. For San Lorenzo (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.13. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.36, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.50%.
Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 5.36I 18.66%NM 17.90%EV +4.50%E +0.840%K +1.03%G +0.047% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.75%EV -6.31%E -3.34%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 3.06I 32.68%NM 31.35%EV -5.35%E -1.75%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-20 17:39 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 5.15I 19.42%NM 18.75%EV +0.409%E +0.079%K +0.099%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 50.30%EV -4.82%E -2.51%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 30.95%EV -3.49%E -1.12%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-09-20 17:34 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.23%EV -0.566%E -0.111%K -0.138%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.79%EV -9.29%E -5.07%K -11.19%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -7.20%E -2.40%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-20 17:33 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 5.05I 19.80%NM 19.13%EV -1.54%E -0.305%K -0.380%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 49.80%EV -3.83%E -1.98%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 3.11I 32.15%NM 31.07%EV -3.80%E -1.22%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-09-20 17:18 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 5.05I 19.80%NM 19.13%EV -1.54%E -0.305%K -0.380%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 49.80%EV -3.83%E -1.98%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 3.11I 32.15%NM 31.07%EV -3.80%E -1.22%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-09-20 17:19 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 5.05I 19.80%NM 19.13%EV -1.54%E -0.305%K -0.380%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 49.80%EV -3.83%E -1.98%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 3.11I 32.15%NM 31.07%EV -3.80%E -1.22%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-09-20 17:19 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -2.52%E -0.503%K -0.629%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.58%EV -7.30%E -3.91%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.51%EV -4.11%E -1.33%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-20 17:40 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.77%EV -2.52%E -0.503%K -0.629%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 50.46%EV -7.80%E -4.19%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.77%EV -5.66%E -1.85%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-20 17:34 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.53%EV -2.52%E -0.503%K -0.629%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.53%EV -7.30%E -3.91%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.94%EV -10.30%E -3.55%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-20 17:35 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.23%EV -4.47%E -0.911%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.38%EV -7.30%E -3.91%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.39%EV -4.11%E -1.33%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-20 17:39 |
| Betsson🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.19%EV -4.47%E -0.911%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.48%EV -5.82%E -3.06%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -7.20%E -2.40%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-20 17:38 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.19%EV -4.47%E -0.911%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.48%EV -5.82%E -3.06%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -7.20%E -2.40%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-20 17:34 |
| Bovada🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.13%EV -4.47%E -0.911%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.13%EV -7.30%E -3.91%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.74%EV -5.66%E -1.85%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-20 17:40 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.99%EV -4.47%E -0.911%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.77%EV -7.30%E -3.91%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.23%EV -7.82%E -2.62%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-20 17:39 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.76%EV -6.41%E -1.34%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.65%EV -5.32%E -2.79%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.59%EV -4.11%E -1.33%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-20 17:39 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.66%EV -6.41%E -1.34%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.40%EV -5.32%E -2.79%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.94%EV -5.66%E -1.85%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-20 17:39 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.77%EV -7.39%E -1.56%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.94%EV -6.81%E -3.62%K -7.74%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.29%EV -4.11%E -1.33%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-20 17:29 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.67%EV -7.39%E -1.56%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.18%EV -5.82%E -3.06%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.15%EV -7.20%E -2.40%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-20 17:40 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.31%EV -7.39%E -1.56%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.06%EV -7.30%E -3.91%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.63%EV -10.30%E -3.55%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-20 17:24 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.95%EV -7.39%E -1.56%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.01%EV -10.77%E -5.98%K -13.47%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.04%EV -10.30%E -3.55%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-20 17:34 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.33%EV -10.31%E -2.24%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 49.49%EV -6.31%E -3.34%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.17%EV -4.11%E -1.33%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-20 17:39 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.41%EV -10.31%E -2.24%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.60%EV -10.77%E -5.98%K -13.47%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.00%EV -10.91%E -3.79%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-09-20 17:35 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.59%EV -12.26%E -2.73%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -5.32%E -2.79%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.89%EV -7.20%E -2.40%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-20 17:39 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.54%EV -12.26%E -2.73%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%EV -5.82%E -3.06%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -7.20%E -2.40%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-09-20 17:39 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.46%EV -12.26%E -2.73%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 49.48%EV -12.26%E -6.93%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 31.06%EV -12.77%E -4.53%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 14.2% | 2026-09-20 17:38 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 4.45I 22.47%NM 19.70%EV -13.24%E -2.97%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 50.08%EV -13.25%E -7.57%K -17.67%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.22%EV -10.30%E -3.55%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-09-20 17:39 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.80%EV -14.21%E -3.23%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.69%EV -6.81%E -3.62%K -7.74%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -7.20%E -2.40%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-20 17:39 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.69%EV -14.21%E -3.23%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 1.84I 54.35%NM 49.47%EV -8.79%E -4.78%K -10.46%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.84%EV -5.66%E -1.85%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-09-20 17:39 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.53%EV -14.21%E -3.23%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.84%EV -8.29%E -4.48%K -9.76%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.63%EV -8.75%E -2.97%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-20 17:38 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 19.94%EV -14.21%E -3.23%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 49.28%EV -11.76%E -6.61%K -15.08%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 30.78%EV -11.84%E -4.16%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-09-20 17:38 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.53%EV -15.19%E -3.49%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 47.77%EV -2.84%E -1.45%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.70%EV -5.66%E -1.85%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-20 17:40 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.47%EV -15.19%E -3.49%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.90%EV -3.34%E -1.71%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.63%EV -5.66%E -1.85%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-20 17:40 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.75%EV -16.16%E -3.76%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 49.01%EV -9.78%E -5.37%K -11.93%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.24%EV -8.75%E -2.97%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-09-20 17:40 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.54%EV -17.14%E -4.03%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 47.43%EV -4.33%E -2.24%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.03%EV -8.75%E -2.97%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-20 17:37 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.77%EV -20.06%E -4.89%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 47.23%EV -6.31%E -3.34%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.00%EV -10.91%E -3.79%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-09-20 17:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.77%EV -20.06%E -4.89%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 47.23%EV -6.31%E -3.34%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.00%EV -10.91%E -3.79%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-09-20 17:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.78%EV -22.01%E -5.50%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 47.10%EV -8.29%E -4.48%K -9.76%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.12%EV -13.39%E -4.78%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 14.8% | 2026-09-20 17:40 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 5.50I 18.18%NM 18.10% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 50.79% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 31.11% | 0.5% | 2026-09-20 17:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 5.50I 18.18%NM 18.10% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 50.79% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 31.11% | 0.5% | 2026-09-20 17:39 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 5.50I 18.18%NM 18.10% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 50.79% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 31.11% | 0.5% | 2026-09-20 17:40 |
| Kalshi◎ | 5.26I 19.01%NM 18.63% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 51.03% | 3.23I 30.96%NM 30.34% | 2.1% | 2026-09-20 17:39 |
| Smarkets◎ | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.76% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 49.77% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.47% | 2.5% | 2026-09-20 17:39 |