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San Lorenzo v Boca Juniors
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
San Lorenzo (Local)
Predicción 19.50%5.13momio equitativo
EV +4.50%
Ventaja +0.840%
Kelly +1.03%
Crecimiento +0.047%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.36
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
17.90%19.61%19.48%21.78%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.004.684.755.3625.00%21.38%21.05%18.66%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Boca Juniors (Visitante)
Predicción 49.57%2.02momio equitativo
EV -2.84%
Ventaja -1.45%
Kelly -2.96%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.96
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
47.10%49.52%49.53%50.79%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.751.881.881.9657.14%53.31%53.19%51.02%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Empate
Predicción 30.93%3.23momio equitativo
EV -3.49%
Ventaja -1.12%
Kelly -1.65%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.12
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
29.84%30.86%30.98%31.94%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.803.003.003.1235.71%33.38%33.33%32.05%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: San Lorenzo (Local): 19.50%; Boca Juniors (Visitante): 49.57%; Empate: 30.93%. Para San Lorenzo (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 5.13. 2 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 5.36, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +4.50%.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (37 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local ▼ | Visitante | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 5.36I 18.66%NM 17.90%EV +4.50%E +0.840%K +1.03%G +0.047% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.75%EV -6.31%E -3.34%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 3.06I 32.68%NM 31.35%EV -5.35%E -1.75%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-20 17:39 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 5.15I 19.42%NM 18.75%EV +0.409%E +0.079%K +0.099%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 50.30%EV -4.82%E -2.51%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 30.95%EV -3.49%E -1.12%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-09-20 17:34 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.23%EV -0.566%E -0.111%K -0.138%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.79%EV -9.29%E -5.07%K -11.19%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -7.20%E -2.40%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-20 17:33 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 5.05I 19.80%NM 19.13%EV -1.54%E -0.305%K -0.380%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 49.80%EV -3.83%E -1.98%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 3.11I 32.15%NM 31.07%EV -3.80%E -1.22%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-09-20 17:18 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 5.05I 19.80%NM 19.13%EV -1.54%E -0.305%K -0.380%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 49.80%EV -3.83%E -1.98%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 3.11I 32.15%NM 31.07%EV -3.80%E -1.22%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-09-20 17:19 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 5.05I 19.80%NM 19.13%EV -1.54%E -0.305%K -0.380%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 49.80%EV -3.83%E -1.98%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 3.11I 32.15%NM 31.07%EV -3.80%E -1.22%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-09-20 17:19 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -2.52%E -0.503%K -0.629%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.58%EV -7.30%E -3.91%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.51%EV -4.11%E -1.33%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-20 17:40 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.77%EV -2.52%E -0.503%K -0.629%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 50.46%EV -7.80%E -4.19%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.77%EV -5.66%E -1.85%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-20 17:34 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.53%EV -2.52%E -0.503%K -0.629%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.53%EV -7.30%E -3.91%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.94%EV -10.30%E -3.55%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-20 17:35 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.23%EV -4.47%E -0.911%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.38%EV -7.30%E -3.91%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.39%EV -4.11%E -1.33%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-20 17:39 |
| Betsson🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.19%EV -4.47%E -0.911%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.48%EV -5.82%E -3.06%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -7.20%E -2.40%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-20 17:38 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.19%EV -4.47%E -0.911%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.48%EV -5.82%E -3.06%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -7.20%E -2.40%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-20 17:34 |
| Bovada🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.13%EV -4.47%E -0.911%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.13%EV -7.30%E -3.91%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.74%EV -5.66%E -1.85%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-20 17:40 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.99%EV -4.47%E -0.911%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.77%EV -7.30%E -3.91%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.23%EV -7.82%E -2.62%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-20 17:39 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.76%EV -6.41%E -1.34%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.65%EV -5.32%E -2.79%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.59%EV -4.11%E -1.33%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-20 17:39 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.66%EV -6.41%E -1.34%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.40%EV -5.32%E -2.79%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.94%EV -5.66%E -1.85%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-20 17:39 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.77%EV -7.39%E -1.56%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.94%EV -6.81%E -3.62%K -7.74%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.29%EV -4.11%E -1.33%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-20 17:29 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.67%EV -7.39%E -1.56%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.18%EV -5.82%E -3.06%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.15%EV -7.20%E -2.40%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-20 17:40 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.31%EV -7.39%E -1.56%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.06%EV -7.30%E -3.91%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.63%EV -10.30%E -3.55%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-20 17:24 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.95%EV -7.39%E -1.56%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.01%EV -10.77%E -5.98%K -13.47%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.04%EV -10.30%E -3.55%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-20 17:34 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.33%EV -10.31%E -2.24%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 49.49%EV -6.31%E -3.34%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.17%EV -4.11%E -1.33%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-20 17:39 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.41%EV -10.31%E -2.24%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.60%EV -10.77%E -5.98%K -13.47%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.00%EV -10.91%E -3.79%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-09-20 17:35 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.59%EV -12.26%E -2.73%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -5.32%E -2.79%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.89%EV -7.20%E -2.40%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-20 17:39 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.54%EV -12.26%E -2.73%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%EV -5.82%E -3.06%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -7.20%E -2.40%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-09-20 17:39 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.46%EV -12.26%E -2.73%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 49.48%EV -12.26%E -6.93%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 31.06%EV -12.77%E -4.53%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 14.2% | 2026-09-20 17:38 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 4.45I 22.47%NM 19.70%EV -13.24%E -2.97%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 50.08%EV -13.25%E -7.57%K -17.67%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.22%EV -10.30%E -3.55%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-09-20 17:39 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.80%EV -14.21%E -3.23%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.69%EV -6.81%E -3.62%K -7.74%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -7.20%E -2.40%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-20 17:39 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.69%EV -14.21%E -3.23%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 1.84I 54.35%NM 49.47%EV -8.79%E -4.78%K -10.46%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.84%EV -5.66%E -1.85%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-09-20 17:39 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.53%EV -14.21%E -3.23%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.84%EV -8.29%E -4.48%K -9.76%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.63%EV -8.75%E -2.97%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-20 17:38 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 19.94%EV -14.21%E -3.23%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 49.28%EV -11.76%E -6.61%K -15.08%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 30.78%EV -11.84%E -4.16%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-09-20 17:38 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.53%EV -15.19%E -3.49%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 47.77%EV -2.84%E -1.45%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.70%EV -5.66%E -1.85%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-20 17:40 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.47%EV -15.19%E -3.49%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.90%EV -3.34%E -1.71%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.63%EV -5.66%E -1.85%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-20 17:40 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.75%EV -16.16%E -3.76%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 49.01%EV -9.78%E -5.37%K -11.93%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.24%EV -8.75%E -2.97%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-09-20 17:40 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.54%EV -17.14%E -4.03%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 47.43%EV -4.33%E -2.24%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.03%EV -8.75%E -2.97%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-20 17:37 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.77%EV -20.06%E -4.89%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 47.23%EV -6.31%E -3.34%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.00%EV -10.91%E -3.79%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-09-20 17:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.77%EV -20.06%E -4.89%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 47.23%EV -6.31%E -3.34%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.00%EV -10.91%E -3.79%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-09-20 17:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.78%EV -22.01%E -5.50%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 47.10%EV -8.29%E -4.48%K -9.76%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.12%EV -13.39%E -4.78%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 14.8% | 2026-09-20 17:40 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (5)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 5.50I 18.18%NM 18.10% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 50.79% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 31.11% | 0.5% | 2026-09-20 17:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 5.50I 18.18%NM 18.10% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 50.79% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 31.11% | 0.5% | 2026-09-20 17:39 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 5.50I 18.18%NM 18.10% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 50.79% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 31.11% | 0.5% | 2026-09-20 17:40 |
| Kalshi◎ | 5.26I 19.01%NM 18.63% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 51.03% | 3.23I 30.96%NM 30.34% | 2.1% | 2026-09-20 17:39 |
| Smarkets◎ | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.76% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 49.77% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.47% | 2.5% | 2026-09-20 17:39 |