Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

San Lorenzo v Boca Juniors

Início: 2026-09-20 17:45 UTC

Final: San Lorenzo 0–2 Boca Juniors

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

37 casas de apostas (17 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

San Lorenzo (Local)

Previsão 19.50%5.13odd justa
EV +4.50%
Vantagem +0.840%
Kelly +1.03%
Crescimento +0.047%

pressupondo odds máximas de 5.36

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
17.90%19.61%19.48%21.78%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
4.004.684.755.3625.00%21.38%21.05%18.66%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Boca Juniors (Visitante)

Previsão 49.57%2.02odd justa
EV -2.84%
Vantagem -1.45%
Kelly -2.96%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.96

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
47.10%49.52%49.53%50.79%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.751.881.881.9657.14%53.31%53.19%51.02%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 30.93%3.23odd justa
EV -3.49%
Vantagem -1.12%
Kelly -1.65%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.12

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
29.84%30.86%30.98%31.94%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.803.003.003.1235.71%33.38%33.33%32.05%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: San Lorenzo (Local): 19.50%; Boca Juniors (Visitante): 49.57%; Empate: 30.93%. Para San Lorenzo (Local), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 5.13. 2 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 5.36, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +4.50%.

Odds das casas de apostas (37 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargemAtualização
1xBet🎯5.36I 18.66%NM 17.90%EV +4.50%E +0.840%K +1.03%G +0.047%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.75%EV -6.31%E -3.34%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 31.35%EV -5.35%E -1.75%K -2.60%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-20 17:39
Pinnacle🎯5.15I 19.42%NM 18.75%EV +0.409%E +0.079%K +0.099%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 50.30%EV -4.82%E -2.51%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.95%EV -3.49%E -1.12%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.6%2026-09-20 17:34
FanDuel🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 18.23%EV -0.566%E -0.111%K -0.138%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.79%EV -9.29%E -5.07%K -11.19%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -7.20%E -2.40%K -3.60%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-20 17:33
LowVig.ag🎯5.05I 19.80%NM 19.13%EV -1.54%E -0.305%K -0.380%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.80%EV -3.83%E -1.98%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.11I 32.15%NM 31.07%EV -3.80%E -1.22%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.5%2026-09-20 17:18
BetOnline.ag🎯5.05I 19.80%NM 19.13%EV -1.54%E -0.305%K -0.380%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.80%EV -3.83%E -1.98%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.11I 32.15%NM 31.07%EV -3.80%E -1.22%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.5%2026-09-20 17:19
BetAnything🎯5.05I 19.80%NM 19.13%EV -1.54%E -0.305%K -0.380%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.80%EV -3.83%E -1.98%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.11I 32.15%NM 31.07%EV -3.80%E -1.22%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.5%2026-09-20 17:19
Fanatics🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -2.52%E -0.503%K -0.629%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.58%EV -7.30%E -3.91%K -8.39%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.51%EV -4.11%E -1.33%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-20 17:40
SportsBet🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.77%EV -2.52%E -0.503%K -0.629%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 50.46%EV -7.80%E -4.19%K -9.07%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.77%EV -5.66%E -1.85%K -2.76%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-20 17:34
PlayUp🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.53%EV -2.52%E -0.503%K -0.629%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.53%EV -7.30%E -3.91%K -8.39%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.94%EV -10.30%E -3.55%K -5.42%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-20 17:35
DraftKings🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.23%EV -4.47%E -0.911%K -1.14%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.38%EV -7.30%E -3.91%K -8.39%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.39%EV -4.11%E -1.33%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-20 17:39
Betsson🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.19%EV -4.47%E -0.911%K -1.14%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.48%EV -5.82%E -3.06%K -6.46%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -7.20%E -2.40%K -3.60%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-20 17:38
NordicBet🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.19%EV -4.47%E -0.911%K -1.14%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.48%EV -5.82%E -3.06%K -6.46%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -7.20%E -2.40%K -3.60%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-20 17:34
Bovada🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.13%EV -4.47%E -0.911%K -1.14%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.13%EV -7.30%E -3.91%K -8.39%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.74%EV -5.66%E -1.85%K -2.76%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-20 17:40
Marathon Bet🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 18.99%EV -4.47%E -0.911%K -1.14%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.77%EV -7.30%E -3.91%K -8.39%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.23%EV -7.82%E -2.62%K -3.95%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-20 17:39
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.76%EV -6.41%E -1.34%K -1.69%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.65%EV -5.32%E -2.79%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.59%EV -4.11%E -1.33%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-20 17:39
Codere (IT)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.66%EV -6.41%E -1.34%K -1.69%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.40%EV -5.32%E -2.79%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.94%EV -5.66%E -1.85%K -2.76%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-20 17:39
Betway🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.77%EV -7.39%E -1.56%K -1.97%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.94%EV -6.81%E -3.62%K -7.74%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.29%EV -4.11%E -1.33%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-20 17:29
Unibet (UK)🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.67%EV -7.39%E -1.56%K -1.97%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.18%EV -5.82%E -3.06%K -6.46%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.15%EV -7.20%E -2.40%K -3.60%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-20 17:40
BoyleSports🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.31%EV -7.39%E -1.56%K -1.97%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.06%EV -7.30%E -3.91%K -8.39%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.63%EV -10.30%E -3.55%K -5.42%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-20 17:24
Paddy Power🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 18.95%EV -7.39%E -1.56%K -1.97%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.01%EV -10.77%E -5.98%K -13.47%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.04%EV -10.30%E -3.55%K -5.42%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-20 17:34
BetMGM🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.33%EV -10.31%E -2.24%K -2.87%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 49.49%EV -6.31%E -3.34%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.17%EV -4.11%E -1.33%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-20 17:39
Sky Bet🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.41%EV -10.31%E -2.24%K -2.87%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 49.60%EV -10.77%E -5.98%K -13.47%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.00%EV -10.91%E -3.79%K -5.81%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-20 17:35
theScore Bet🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.59%EV -12.26%E -2.73%K -3.50%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -5.32%E -2.79%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.89%EV -7.20%E -2.40%K -3.60%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-20 17:39
betfred_uk🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.54%EV -12.26%E -2.73%K -3.50%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%EV -5.82%E -3.06%K -6.46%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -7.20%E -2.40%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-20 17:39
NetBet (FR)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 19.46%EV -12.26%E -2.73%K -3.50%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 49.48%EV -12.26%E -6.93%K -15.92%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 31.06%EV -12.77%E -4.53%K -7.02%G +0.000%14.2%2026-09-20 17:38
Unibet (FR)🎯4.45I 22.47%NM 19.70%EV -13.24%E -2.97%K -3.84%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 50.08%EV -13.25%E -7.57%K -17.67%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.22%EV -10.30%E -3.55%K -5.42%G +0.000%14.1%2026-09-20 17:39
Bet Right🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.80%EV -14.21%E -3.23%K -4.18%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.69%EV -6.81%E -3.62%K -7.74%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -7.20%E -2.40%K -3.60%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-20 17:39
Winamax (DE)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.69%EV -14.21%E -3.23%K -4.18%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 49.47%EV -8.79%E -4.78%K -10.46%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.84%EV -5.66%E -1.85%K -2.76%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-20 17:39
Betr (AU)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.53%EV -14.21%E -3.23%K -4.18%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.84%EV -8.29%E -4.48%K -9.76%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.63%EV -8.75%E -2.97%K -4.49%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-20 17:38
Betclic (FR)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 19.94%EV -14.21%E -3.23%K -4.18%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 49.28%EV -11.76%E -6.61%K -15.08%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.78%EV -11.84%E -4.16%K -6.40%G +0.000%14.0%2026-09-20 17:38
Unibet🎯4.35I 22.99%NM 21.53%EV -15.19%E -3.49%K -4.53%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.77%EV -2.84%E -1.45%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.70%EV -5.66%E -1.85%K -2.76%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-20 17:40
Unibet (SE)🎯4.35I 22.99%NM 21.47%EV -15.19%E -3.49%K -4.53%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.90%EV -3.34%E -1.71%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.63%EV -5.66%E -1.85%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-20 17:40
Winamax (FR)🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 20.75%EV -16.16%E -3.76%K -4.90%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 49.01%EV -9.78%E -5.37%K -11.93%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.24%EV -8.75%E -2.97%K -4.49%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-20 17:40
BetRivers🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 21.54%EV -17.14%E -4.03%K -5.27%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.43%EV -4.33%E -2.24%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.03%EV -8.75%E -2.97%K -4.49%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-20 17:37
Virgin Bet🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 21.77%EV -20.06%E -4.89%K -6.47%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 47.23%EV -6.31%E -3.34%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.00%EV -10.91%E -3.79%K -5.81%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-20 17:40
LiveScore Bet🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 21.77%EV -20.06%E -4.89%K -6.47%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 47.23%EV -6.31%E -3.34%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.00%EV -10.91%E -3.79%K -5.81%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-20 17:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 21.78%EV -22.01%E -5.50%K -7.34%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 47.10%EV -8.29%E -4.48%K -9.76%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.12%EV -13.39%E -4.78%K -7.44%G +0.000%14.8%2026-09-20 17:40
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (5)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎5.50I 18.18%NM 18.10%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.79%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.11%0.5%2026-09-20 17:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎5.50I 18.18%NM 18.10%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.79%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.11%0.5%2026-09-20 17:39
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎5.50I 18.18%NM 18.10%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.79%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.11%0.5%2026-09-20 17:40
Kalshi◎5.26I 19.01%NM 18.63%1.92I 52.08%NM 51.03%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.34%2.1%2026-09-20 17:39
Smarkets◎5.20I 19.23%NM 18.76%1.96I 51.02%NM 49.77%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.47%2.5%2026-09-20 17:39