La escuela de los momios

Newells Old Boys v San Lorenzo

Inicio: 2026-04-12 18:00 UTC

Final: Newells Old Boys 0–0 San Lorenzo

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

38 corredores (15 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Newells Old Boys (Local)

Predicción 36.81%2.72momio equitativo
EV +10.42%
Ventaja +3.47%
Kelly +5.21%
Crecimiento +0.542%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.43%36.71%36.97%37.65%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.352.552.553.0042.55%39.24%39.22%33.33%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

San Lorenzo (Visitante)

Predicción 30.53%3.28momio equitativo
EV -2.00%
Ventaja -0.624%
Kelly -0.906%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.21

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
29.88%30.64%30.48%38.77%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.152.943.003.2146.51%33.96%33.33%31.15%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 32.67%3.06momio equitativo
EV -3.64%
Ventaja -1.23%
Kelly -1.86%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.95

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
31.58%32.65%32.54%33.62%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.602.832.852.9538.46%35.35%35.09%33.90%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (38 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Parions Sport (FR)3.00I 33.33%NM 28.43%EV +10.42%E +3.47%K +5.21%G +0.542%2.20I 45.45%NM 38.77%EV -32.84%E -14.93%K -27.36%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 32.80%EV -15.07%E -5.80%K -9.42%G +0.000%17.2%2026-03-26 20:54
PMU (FR)2.80I 35.71%NM 29.59%EV +3.06%E +1.09%K +1.70%G +0.052%2.15I 46.51%NM 38.54%EV -34.36%E -15.98%K -29.88%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 31.87%EV -15.07%E -5.80%K -9.42%G +0.000%20.7%2026-03-26 20:54
Unibet (SE)2.70I 37.04%NM 35.05%EV -0.626%E -0.232%K -0.368%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.86%EV -12.08%E -4.19%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.08%EV -3.64%E -1.23%K -1.86%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-12 17:30
Unibet2.70I 37.04%NM 35.05%EV -0.626%E -0.232%K -0.368%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.86%EV -12.08%E -4.19%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.08%EV -3.64%E -1.23%K -1.86%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-12 17:30
Pinnacle2.66I 37.59%NM 36.42%EV -2.10%E -0.789%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.21I 31.15%NM 30.18%EV -2.00%E -0.624%K -0.906%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.40%EV -5.27%E -1.82%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-12 17:30
BetRivers2.65I 37.74%NM 35.36%EV -2.47%E -0.930%K -1.49%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.88%EV -12.99%E -4.56%K -7.02%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.76%EV -3.64%E -1.23%K -1.86%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-12 17:30
LowVig.ag2.60I 38.46%NM 36.63%EV -4.31%E -1.66%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.95%EV -2.92%E -0.918%K -1.34%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.42%EV -6.90%E -2.42%K -3.73%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-12 17:30
BetOnline.ag2.60I 38.46%NM 36.63%EV -4.31%E -1.66%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.95%EV -2.92%E -0.918%K -1.34%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.42%EV -6.90%E -2.42%K -3.73%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-12 17:30
Fanatics2.60I 38.46%NM 36.35%EV -4.31%E -1.66%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.36%E -1.73%K -2.55%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.16%EV -6.90%E -2.42%K -3.73%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-12 06:25
Everygame2.60I 38.46%NM 36.14%EV -4.31%E -1.66%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV -5.36%E -1.73%K -2.55%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -8.54%E -3.05%K -4.74%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-12 17:29
BetAnything2.60I 38.46%NM 35.98%EV -4.31%E -1.66%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -8.41%E -2.80%K -4.21%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.83%EV -6.90%E -2.42%K -3.73%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-12 06:25
BoyleSports2.60I 38.46%NM 35.56%EV -4.31%E -1.66%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.82%EV -8.41%E -2.80%K -4.21%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.62%EV -10.17%E -3.70%K -5.81%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-07 12:35
LiveScore Bet2.60I 38.46%NM 34.99%EV -4.31%E -1.66%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.08%EV -16.05%E -5.83%K -9.17%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.92%EV -6.90%E -2.42%K -3.73%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-12 17:29
Virgin Bet2.60I 38.46%NM 34.99%EV -4.31%E -1.66%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.08%EV -16.05%E -5.83%K -9.17%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.92%EV -6.90%E -2.42%K -3.73%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-12 17:29
1xBet2.58I 38.76%NM 36.30%EV -5.04%E -1.95%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 30.61%EV -6.58%E -2.15%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.83I 35.34%NM 33.09%EV -7.56%E -2.67%K -4.13%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-12 17:29
Marathon Bet2.56I 39.06%NM 36.41%EV -5.78%E -2.26%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 30.66%EV -7.19%E -2.37%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.83I 35.34%NM 32.93%EV -7.56%E -2.67%K -4.13%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-12 17:30
theScore Bet2.55I 39.22%NM 37.01%EV -6.15%E -2.41%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.44%EV -5.36%E -1.73%K -2.55%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.54%EV -5.27%E -1.82%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-12 17:29
Betsson2.55I 39.22%NM 36.98%EV -6.15%E -2.41%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.94%EV -3.83%E -1.22%K -1.78%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.09%EV -6.90%E -2.42%K -3.73%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-12 17:29
NordicBet2.55I 39.22%NM 36.98%EV -6.15%E -2.41%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.94%EV -3.83%E -1.22%K -1.78%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.09%EV -6.90%E -2.42%K -3.73%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-12 17:29
Bovada2.55I 39.22%NM 36.43%EV -6.15%E -2.41%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -8.41%E -2.80%K -4.21%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.60%EV -6.90%E -2.42%K -3.73%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-12 17:26
PlayUp2.55I 39.22%NM 36.22%EV -6.15%E -2.41%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.79%EV -8.41%E -2.80%K -4.21%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.99%EV -8.54%E -3.05%K -4.74%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-12 17:30
LeoVegas (SE)2.55I 39.22%NM 35.24%EV -6.15%E -2.41%K -3.97%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.67%EV -16.05%E -5.83%K -9.17%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.09%EV -8.54%E -3.05%K -4.74%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-12 17:29
DraftKings2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -7.99%E -3.19%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.88%EV -3.83%E -1.22%K -1.78%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.46%EV -5.27%E -1.82%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-12 17:30
Ladbrokes (UK)2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -7.99%E -3.19%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.22%EV -5.36%E -1.73%K -2.55%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.31%EV -5.27%E -1.82%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-12 17:30
BetMGM2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -7.99%E -3.19%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.22%EV -5.36%E -1.73%K -2.55%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.31%EV -5.27%E -1.82%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-12 17:29
FanDuel2.50I 40.00%NM 37.30%EV -7.99%E -3.19%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.09%EV -8.41%E -2.80%K -4.21%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.61%EV -3.64%E -1.23%K -1.86%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-12 17:29
Betway2.50I 40.00%NM 37.02%EV -7.99%E -3.19%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -8.41%E -2.80%K -4.21%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.13%EV -5.92%E -2.06%K -3.15%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-12 08:24
SportsBet2.45I 40.82%NM 37.57%EV -9.83%E -4.01%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.68%EV -8.41%E -2.80%K -4.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.74%EV -5.27%E -1.82%K -2.77%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-12 17:30
Bet Right2.45I 40.82%NM 37.38%EV -9.83%E -4.01%K -6.78%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.04%EV -9.94%E -3.37%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.58%EV -5.27%E -1.82%K -2.77%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-12 17:29
Winamax (DE)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.17%EV -9.83%E -4.01%K -6.78%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.87%EV -9.94%E -3.37%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.96%EV -6.90%E -2.42%K -3.73%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-12 17:30
Betclic (FR)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -9.83%E -4.01%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -8.41%E -2.80%K -4.21%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -8.54%E -3.05%K -4.74%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-12 17:29
Betr (AU)2.45I 40.82%NM 36.98%EV -9.83%E -4.01%K -6.78%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.24%EV -11.47%E -3.95%K -6.04%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.79%EV -6.90%E -2.42%K -3.73%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-12 17:29
NetBet (FR)2.42I 41.32%NM 36.00%EV -10.93%E -4.52%K -7.70%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.12%EV -14.52%E -5.19%K -8.07%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 32.88%EV -13.44%E -5.07%K -8.14%G +0.000%14.8%2026-04-12 17:29
Paddy Power2.40I 41.67%NM 37.25%EV -11.67%E -4.86%K -8.33%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.83%EV -11.47%E -3.95%K -6.04%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.93%EV -8.54%E -3.05%K -4.74%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-12 17:30
Unibet (FR)2.40I 41.67%NM 37.23%EV -11.67%E -4.86%K -8.33%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.29%EV -9.94%E -3.37%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.49%EV -10.17%E -3.70%K -5.81%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-12 17:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.40I 41.67%NM 36.28%EV -11.67%E -4.86%K -8.33%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.23%EV -12.08%E -4.19%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.49%EV -15.07%E -5.80%K -9.42%G +0.000%14.9%2026-04-12 17:30
Sky Bet2.38I 42.02%NM 37.36%EV -12.40%E -5.21%K -8.99%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.88%EV -12.08%E -4.19%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.76%EV -8.54%E -3.05%K -4.74%G +0.000%12.5%2026-04-12 17:30
Winamax (FR)2.35I 42.55%NM 37.33%EV -13.51%E -5.75%K -10.01%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.78%EV -12.99%E -4.56%K -7.02%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.90%EV -10.17%E -3.70%K -5.81%G +0.000%14.0%2026-04-12 17:29
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.68I 37.31%NM 36.96%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.57%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.47%0.9%2026-04-12 17:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.68I 37.31%NM 36.96%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.57%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.47%0.9%2026-04-12 17:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.68I 37.31%NM 36.96%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.57%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.47%0.9%2026-04-12 17:30
Kalshi2.70I 37.04%NM 36.67%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.65%3.03I 33.00%NM 32.68%1.0%2026-04-12 17:30
Matchbook2.64I 37.88%NM 37.48%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.10%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.42%1.1%2026-04-12 17:30
Smarkets2.66I 37.59%NM 36.89%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.73%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.38%1.9%2026-04-12 17:30