The School of Odds

Newells Old Boys v Boca Juniors

2026-08-02 20:00 UTC — Primera División - Argentina

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Newells Old Boys (Local)

Prediction 26.84%3.73fair odd
EV -4.72%
Edge -1.33%
Kelly -1.85%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.02%26.85%26.87%27.92%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.103.343.383.5532.26%29.96%29.54%28.17%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Boca Juniors (Visit)

Prediction 42.83%2.33fair odd
EV -4.07%
Edge -1.82%
Kelly -3.28%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.24

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.13%42.81%42.84%43.42%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.962.112.152.2451.02%47.47%46.51%44.64%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 30.33%3.30fair odd
EV -2.93%
Edge -0.915%
Kelly -1.33%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.45%30.34%30.29%31.23%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.803.003.003.2035.71%33.36%33.33%31.25%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Codere (IT)3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -4.72%E -1.33%K -1.85%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.06%EV -7.92%E -3.68%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.86%EV -9.00%E -3.00%K -4.50%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-26 11:30
1xBet3.46I 28.90%NM 27.45%EV -7.14%E -2.06%K -2.90%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.40%EV -4.07%E -1.82%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.15%EV -4.44%E -1.41%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-26 11:45
SportsBet3.45I 28.99%NM 27.03%EV -7.41%E -2.15%K -3.02%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.37%EV -7.92%E -3.68%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.60%EV -4.44%E -1.41%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-26 11:35
Fanatics3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -8.75%E -2.57%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -5.78%E -2.63%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -2.93%E -0.915%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-26 11:49
Marathon Bet3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -8.75%E -2.57%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -5.78%E -2.63%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -5.96%E -1.92%K -2.84%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-26 11:35
FanDuel3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -8.75%E -2.57%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -7.92%E -3.68%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -5.96%E -1.92%K -2.84%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-26 11:35
BoyleSports3.40I 29.41%NM 26.64%EV -8.75%E -2.57%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.13%EV -7.92%E -3.68%K -6.89%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.23%EV -12.03%E -4.15%K -6.33%G +0.000%10.4%2026-07-26 11:30
Betclic (FR)3.37I 29.67%NM 26.02%EV -9.56%E -2.84%K -4.03%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 43.42%EV -13.49%E -6.68%K -13.23%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 30.56%EV -12.94%E -4.51%K -6.92%G +0.000%14.0%2026-07-26 11:29
betfred_uk3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -11.43%E -3.46%K -4.97%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -7.92%E -3.68%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -5.96%E -1.92%K -2.84%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-26 11:35
Paddy Power3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -11.43%E -3.46%K -4.97%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.80%EV -10.06%E -4.79%K -9.15%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.96%EV -9.00%E -3.00%K -4.50%G +0.000%11.3%2026-07-26 11:34
Winamax (DE)3.25I 30.77%NM 26.70%EV -12.78%E -3.93%K -5.68%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 43.38%EV -14.35%E -7.17%K -14.35%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.92%EV -12.03%E -4.15%K -6.33%G +0.000%15.3%2026-07-26 11:30
Unibet (FR)3.25I 30.77%NM 26.24%EV -12.78%E -3.93%K -5.68%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 43.30%EV -15.63%E -7.93%K -16.11%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.46%EV -15.06%E -5.38%K -8.37%G +0.000%17.2%2026-07-26 11:30
Sky Bet3.10I 32.26%NM 27.92%EV -16.80%E -5.42%K -8.00%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 42.23%EV -12.21%E -5.95%K -11.62%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.85%EV -12.03%E -4.15%K -6.33%G +0.000%15.5%2026-07-26 11:35
Winamax (FR)3.10I 32.26%NM 27.11%EV -16.80%E -5.42%K -8.00%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 42.88%EV -16.06%E -8.19%K -16.73%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.01%EV -15.06%E -5.38%K -8.37%G +0.000%19.0%2026-07-26 11:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets3.25I 30.77%NM 26.47%2.02I 49.50%NM 42.59%2.78I 35.97%NM 30.94%16.2%2026-07-26 11:30