Language:English
Newells Old Boys v Boca Juniors
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Newells Old Boys (Local)
Prediction 20.08%4.98fair odd
EV +3.20%
Edge +0.622%
Kelly +0.772%
Growth +0.025%
assuming max odds 5.14
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.77%20.02%20.12%21.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.304.644.605.1423.26%21.57%21.74%19.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Boca Juniors (Visit)
Prediction 50.91%1.96fair odd
EV -4.29%
Edge -2.28%
Kelly -4.88%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.88
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.74%50.99%50.89%52.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.721.821.831.8858.14%54.95%54.64%53.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 29.02%3.45fair odd
EV -2.80%
Edge -0.835%
Kelly -1.19%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.35
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.28%29.00%28.99%30.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.203.203.3533.33%31.27%31.25%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Newells Old Boys (Local): 20.08%; Boca Juniors (Visit): 50.91%; Draw: 29.02%. For Newells Old Boys (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.98. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.14, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.20%.
Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 5.14I 19.46%NM 18.82%EV +3.20%E +0.622%K +0.772%G +0.025% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 52.30%EV -5.82%E -3.15%K -6.85%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.88%EV -2.80%E -0.835%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-08-02 19:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 5.14I 19.46%NM 18.82%EV +3.20%E +0.622%K +0.772%G +0.025% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 52.30%EV -5.82%E -3.15%K -6.85%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.88%EV -2.80%E -0.835%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-08-02 19:50 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 5.14I 19.46%NM 18.82%EV +3.20%E +0.622%K +0.772%G +0.025% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 52.30%EV -5.82%E -3.15%K -6.85%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.88%EV -2.80%E -0.835%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-08-02 19:49 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 5.14I 19.46%NM 18.77%EV +3.20%E +0.622%K +0.772%G +0.025% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 52.16%EV -5.82%E -3.15%K -6.85%G +0.000% | 3.32I 30.12%NM 29.07%EV -3.67%E -1.10%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-08-02 19:50 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 5.08I 19.69%NM 18.90%EV +1.99%E +0.392%K +0.488%G +0.010% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.45%EV -6.84%E -3.74%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.65%EV -2.80%E -0.835%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-02 19:54 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.95I 20.20%NM 19.24%EV -0.618%E -0.125%K -0.156%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.47%EV -5.82%E -3.15%K -6.85%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.30%EV -5.70%E -1.75%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-02 19:49 |
| Betsson🎯 | 4.95I 20.20%NM 19.24%EV -0.618%E -0.125%K -0.156%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.47%EV -5.82%E -3.15%K -6.85%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.30%EV -5.70%E -1.75%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-02 19:50 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.69%EV -3.63%E -0.756%K -0.955%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.66%EV -6.84%E -3.74%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.65%EV -4.25%E -1.29%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-02 19:50 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.61%EV -3.63%E -0.756%K -0.955%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.43%EV -6.84%E -3.74%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.96%EV -5.70%E -1.75%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-02 19:40 |
| Bovada🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.55%EV -3.63%E -0.756%K -0.955%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.57%EV -7.35%E -4.04%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -5.70%E -1.75%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-02 19:50 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.19%EV -3.63%E -0.756%K -0.955%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.03%EV -9.89%E -5.59%K -12.85%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.78%EV -7.15%E -2.23%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-02 19:49 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -4.63%E -0.975%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.55%EV -4.80%E -2.57%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.54%EV -7.15%E -2.23%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-02 19:34 |
| Everygame🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.61%EV -4.63%E -0.975%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.35%EV -5.82%E -3.15%K -6.85%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -10.05%E -3.24%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-02 19:35 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.07%EV -5.64%E -1.20%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.45%EV -4.80%E -2.57%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.48%EV -7.15%E -2.23%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-02 19:24 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.94%EV -5.64%E -1.20%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.22%EV -6.84%E -3.74%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -5.70%E -1.75%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-02 19:50 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.57%EV -7.64%E -1.66%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.32%EV -4.29%E -2.28%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.11%EV -5.70%E -1.75%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-02 19:54 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.57%EV -7.64%E -1.66%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.32%EV -4.29%E -2.28%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.11%EV -5.70%E -1.75%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-02 19:55 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -7.64%E -1.66%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.23%EV -4.80%E -2.57%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.35%EV -7.15%E -2.23%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-02 19:25 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.31%EV -7.64%E -1.66%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.50%EV -5.82%E -3.15%K -6.85%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.19%EV -7.15%E -2.23%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-02 19:35 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.12%EV -7.64%E -1.66%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.41%EV -8.37%E -4.65%K -10.46%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.47%EV -5.70%E -1.75%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-02 19:49 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.10%EV -7.64%E -1.66%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.54%EV -6.84%E -3.74%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.36%EV -8.60%E -2.73%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-02 19:50 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 4.55I 21.98%NM 19.62%EV -8.65%E -1.90%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 51.59%EV -11.93%E -6.90%K -16.34%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.79%EV -10.05%E -3.24%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-08-02 19:30 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -9.65%E -2.14%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.99%EV -6.84%E -3.74%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.28%EV -4.25%E -1.29%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-02 19:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.91%EV -9.65%E -2.14%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.19%EV -10.91%E -6.24%K -14.55%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.90%EV -10.05%E -3.24%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-08-02 19:49 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.91%EV -9.65%E -2.14%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.19%EV -10.91%E -6.24%K -14.55%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.90%EV -10.05%E -3.24%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-08-02 19:49 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 4.45I 22.47%NM 20.98%EV -10.66%E -2.39%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 50.20%EV -5.31%E -2.86%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 3.24I 30.86%NM 28.82%EV -5.99%E -1.85%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-02 19:44 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 4.45I 22.47%NM 20.07%EV -10.66%E -2.39%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 50.46%EV -9.89%E -5.59%K -12.85%G +0.000% | 3.03I 33.00%NM 29.47%EV -12.08%E -3.99%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-08-02 19:34 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.83%EV -11.66%E -2.65%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.08%EV -6.84%E -3.74%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.09%EV -8.60%E -2.73%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-02 19:55 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.75%EV -11.66%E -2.65%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.72%EV -8.37%E -4.65%K -10.46%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.53%EV -7.15%E -2.23%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-02 19:25 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.66%EV -11.66%E -2.65%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.49%EV -8.37%E -4.65%K -10.46%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.85%EV -8.60%E -2.73%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-08-02 19:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.66%EV -11.66%E -2.65%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.49%EV -8.37%E -4.65%K -10.46%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.85%EV -8.60%E -2.73%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-08-02 19:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.50%EV -11.66%E -2.65%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 50.40%EV -8.88%E -4.96%K -11.24%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.10%EV -10.05%E -3.24%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-08-02 19:54 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.00%EV -11.66%E -2.65%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 51.15%EV -12.44%E -7.23%K -17.28%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.85%EV -11.50%E -3.77%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-08-02 19:50 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.19%EV -13.07%E -3.02%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.14%EV -6.84%E -3.74%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -7.15%E -2.23%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-02 19:35 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.19%EV -13.07%E -3.02%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.14%EV -6.84%E -3.74%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -7.15%E -2.23%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-02 19:55 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.34%EV -13.07%E -3.02%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 50.31%EV -10.91%E -6.24%K -14.55%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.35%EV -12.95%E -4.32%K -6.48%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-08-02 19:50 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.05%EV -13.67%E -3.18%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 49.74%EV -7.35%E -4.04%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.20%EV -10.05%E -3.24%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-08-02 19:54 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.82%EV -13.67%E -3.18%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 50.30%EV -9.39%E -5.27%K -12.03%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.88%EV -10.05%E -3.24%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-08-02 19:25 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.48% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 51.73% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.79% | 0.7% | 2026-08-02 19:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 5.20I 19.23%NM 19.09% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 51.71% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.20% | 0.7% | 2026-08-02 19:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 5.20I 19.23%NM 19.09% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 51.71% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.20% | 0.7% | 2026-08-02 19:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.42% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 51.86% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.71% | 0.9% | 2026-08-02 19:55 |
| Kalshi◎ | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.63% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 51.93% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.45% | 1.9% | 2026-08-02 19:50 |
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