Language:English
Lanus v Independiente
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Lanus (Local)
Prediction 46.15%2.17fair odd
EV -0.323%
Edge -0.150%
Kelly -0.278%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.16
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.22%46.05%46.27%47.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.882.022.052.1653.19%49.54%48.78%46.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Independiente (Visit)
Prediction 22.73%4.40fair odd
EV +1.15%
Edge +0.258%
Kelly +0.332%
Growth +0.004%
assuming max odds 4.45
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.43%22.86%22.60%25.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.454.014.034.4528.99%24.94%24.84%22.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 31.12%3.21fair odd
EV -2.58%
Edge -0.825%
Kelly -1.21%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.13
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.20%31.09%31.13%31.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.852.983.003.1335.09%33.50%33.33%31.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lanus (Local): 46.15%; Independiente (Visit): 22.73%; Draw: 31.12%. For Independiente (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.40. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.45, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.15%.
Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 47.17%EV -5.40%E -2.63%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 21.73%EV +1.15%E +0.258%K +0.332%G +0.004% | 3.11I 32.15%NM 31.10%EV -3.21%E -1.03%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-08-17 19:04 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 47.17%EV -5.40%E -2.63%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 21.73%EV +1.15%E +0.258%K +0.332%G +0.004% | 3.11I 32.15%NM 31.10%EV -3.21%E -1.03%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-08-17 19:04 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 47.17%EV -5.40%E -2.63%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 21.73%EV +1.15%E +0.258%K +0.332%G +0.004% | 3.11I 32.15%NM 31.10%EV -3.21%E -1.03%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-08-17 19:04 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.14%EV -7.71%E -3.85%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV +0.010%E +0.002%K +0.003%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.43%EV -6.63%E -2.21%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-17 19:43 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.91%EV -7.71%E -3.85%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%EV -2.26%E -0.526%K -0.686%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.27%EV -6.63%E -2.21%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-17 19:40 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.99I 50.25%NM 47.03%EV -8.17%E -4.10%K -8.25%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.77%EV -2.26%E -0.526%K -0.686%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.20%EV -6.63%E -2.21%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-17 19:44 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 46.50%EV -4.01%E -1.93%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 4.28I 23.36%NM 22.60%EV -2.72%E -0.635%K -0.828%G +0.000% | 3.13I 31.95%NM 30.90%EV -2.58%E -0.825%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-08-17 19:50 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.41%EV -5.86%E -2.87%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.54%EV -4.54%E -1.08%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.04%EV -5.07%E -1.66%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-17 19:40 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -5.40%E -2.63%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.48%EV -4.54%E -1.08%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.47%EV -6.63%E -2.21%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-17 19:39 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -7.71%E -3.85%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -4.54%E -1.08%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.11%EV -6.63%E -2.21%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-17 19:54 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.22%EV -11.86%E -6.21%K -13.03%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.47%EV -4.54%E -1.08%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.31%EV -10.36%E -3.60%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-08-17 19:44 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.22%EV -11.86%E -6.21%K -13.03%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.47%EV -4.54%E -1.08%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.31%EV -10.36%E -3.60%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-08-17 19:50 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.93%EV -4.48%E -2.16%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 4.17I 23.98%NM 22.80%EV -5.22%E -1.25%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 3.04I 32.89%NM 31.27%EV -5.38%E -1.77%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-17 19:54 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.44%EV -4.01%E -1.93%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.05%EV -6.81%E -1.66%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -6.63%E -2.21%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-17 19:44 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.44%EV -4.01%E -1.93%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.05%EV -6.81%E -1.66%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -6.63%E -2.21%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-17 19:44 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.80%EV -5.40%E -2.63%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.90%EV -6.81%E -1.66%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.30%EV -6.63%E -2.21%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-17 19:55 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.80%EV -5.40%E -2.63%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.90%EV -6.81%E -1.66%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.30%EV -6.63%E -2.21%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-17 19:55 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.03I 49.26%NM 45.95%EV -6.32%E -3.11%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.75%EV -6.81%E -1.66%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.30%EV -7.25%E -2.43%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-17 19:49 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 47.59%EV -13.24%E -7.04%K -15.05%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 22.09%EV -7.95%E -1.96%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.33%EV -8.19%E -2.77%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-08-17 19:39 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.54%EV -5.40%E -2.63%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -9.08%E -2.27%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -6.63%E -2.21%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-17 19:40 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.54%EV -5.40%E -2.63%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -9.08%E -2.27%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -6.63%E -2.21%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-17 19:39 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.54%EV -5.40%E -2.63%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -9.08%E -2.27%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -6.63%E -2.21%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-17 19:39 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.91%EV -6.78%E -3.36%K -6.65%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.18%EV -9.08%E -2.27%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.91%EV -6.63%E -2.21%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-17 19:44 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.71%EV -11.86%E -6.21%K -13.03%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.31%EV -9.08%E -2.27%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.98%EV -10.36%E -3.60%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-08-17 19:44 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 46.45%EV -11.40%E -5.94%K -12.39%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.58%EV -10.22%E -2.59%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.97%EV -10.36%E -3.60%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-08-17 19:39 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 46.38%EV -9.55%E -4.87%K -9.95%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.31%EV -11.35%E -2.91%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.30%EV -6.63%E -2.21%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-08-17 19:39 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 46.69%EV -13.24%E -7.04%K -15.05%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.51%EV -11.35%E -2.91%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 30.80%EV -11.30%E -3.96%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-08-17 19:44 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 46.26%EV -10.48%E -5.40%K -11.14%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.31%EV -12.49%E -3.24%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.42%EV -8.19%E -2.77%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-08-17 19:40 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.99%EV -5.40%E -2.63%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -13.63%E -3.59%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -6.63%E -2.21%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-17 18:45 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.52%EV -5.40%E -2.63%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.02%EV -13.63%E -3.59%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -9.74%E -3.36%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-08-17 15:49 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.84%EV -5.40%E -2.63%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.51%EV -14.76%E -3.94%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.64%EV -6.63%E -2.21%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-17 18:43 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.22%EV -7.71%E -3.85%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.12%EV -14.76%E -3.94%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.66%EV -8.19%E -2.77%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-08-17 18:45 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.31%EV -2.17%E -1.02%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -15.90%E -4.30%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.30%EV -3.52%E -1.13%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-17 19:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.48%EV -0.323%E -0.150%K -0.278%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.73%EV -17.04%E -4.67%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.79%EV -5.07%E -1.66%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-17 19:54 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.86%EV -3.09%E -1.47%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.94%EV -19.31%E -5.44%K -7.57%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.20%EV -5.07%E -1.66%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-17 19:47 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.13%EV -7.71%E -3.85%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.22%EV -20.45%E -5.84%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.65%EV -10.36%E -3.60%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-08-17 19:54 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.22%EV -5.40%E -2.63%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.68%EV -21.58%E -6.26%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.09%EV -11.30%E -3.96%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-08-17 19:54 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 44.20%EV -9.09%E -4.61%K -9.37%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.24%EV -21.58%E -6.26%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 30.55%EV -11.30%E -3.96%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 14.8% | 2026-08-17 19:54 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.14I 46.73%NM 46.41% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.07% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.53% | 0.7% | 2026-08-17 19:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.14I 46.73%NM 46.39% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.58% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 32.03% | 0.7% | 2026-08-17 19:55 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.13I 46.95%NM 46.53% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.78% | 3.23I 30.96%NM 30.68% | 0.9% | 2026-08-17 19:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.12I 47.17%NM 46.40% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.86% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.73% | 1.7% | 2026-08-17 19:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.12I 47.17%NM 46.17% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.25% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.58% | 2.2% | 2026-08-17 19:55 |
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