The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Independiente Rivadavia v River Plate

Kickoff: 2026-03-03 00:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

38 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Independiente Rivadavia (Local)

Prediction 30.96%3.23fair odd
EV -0.927%
Edge -0.290%
Kelly -0.421%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.46%30.92%30.97%31.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.652.983.003.2037.74%33.57%33.33%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

River Plate (Visit)

Prediction 38.10%2.62fair odd
EV -2.09%
Edge -0.811%
Kelly -1.33%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.57

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.01%38.22%38.15%40.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.412.402.5745.45%41.56%41.67%38.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.94%3.23fair odd
EV -3.77%
Edge -1.21%
Kelly -1.79%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.11

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.08%30.86%30.88%31.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.993.003.1137.04%33.48%33.33%32.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Independiente Rivadavia (Local): 30.96%; River Plate (Visit): 38.10%; Draw: 30.94%. For Independiente Rivadavia (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.23. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.20, with an expected value of -0.927%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.46%EV -0.927%E -0.290%K -0.421%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.12%EV -10.47%E -4.45%K -7.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.41%EV -4.08%E -1.32%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-03 00:15
Unibet (SE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.46%EV -0.927%E -0.290%K -0.421%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.12%EV -10.47%E -4.45%K -7.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.41%EV -4.08%E -1.32%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-03 00:15
BetRivers🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.46%EV -0.927%E -0.290%K -0.421%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.12%EV -10.47%E -4.45%K -7.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.41%EV -4.08%E -1.32%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-03 00:15
Pinnacle🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.69%EV -2.48%E -0.786%K -1.15%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 38.22%EV -3.61%E -1.43%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.11I 32.15%NM 31.09%EV -3.77%E -1.21%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-03 00:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -2.48%E -0.786%K -1.15%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.94%EV -11.23%E -4.82%K -8.44%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.51%EV -5.63%E -1.85%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-03 00:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -4.02%E -1.30%K -1.92%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -8.56%E -3.57%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -4.08%E -1.32%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-02 14:04
theScore Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.32%EV -4.02%E -1.30%K -1.92%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.36%EV -6.66%E -2.72%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.33%EV -7.18%E -2.39%K -3.59%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-03 00:10
Unibet (UK)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.82%EV -5.57%E -1.83%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.36%EV -6.66%E -2.72%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.82%EV -5.63%E -1.85%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-03 00:10
LiveScore Bet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.81%EV -5.57%E -1.83%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 39.88%EV -13.13%E -5.76%K -10.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.31%EV -7.18%E -2.39%K -3.59%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-03 00:10
Virgin Bet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.81%EV -5.57%E -1.83%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 39.88%EV -13.13%E -5.76%K -10.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.31%EV -7.18%E -2.39%K -3.59%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-03 00:10
1xBet🎯3.02I 33.11%NM 31.03%EV -6.50%E -2.15%K -3.22%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 37.63%EV -5.13%E -2.06%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.99I 33.44%NM 31.34%EV -7.49%E -2.50%K -3.76%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-03 00:15
Fanatics🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.57%EV -7.12%E -2.37%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.88%EV -4.75%E -1.90%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.55%EV -4.08%E -1.32%K -1.94%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-02 20:54
DraftKings🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.41%EV -7.12%E -2.37%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.69%EV -4.75%E -1.90%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.90%EV -5.63%E -1.85%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-03 00:10
FanDuel🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -7.12%E -2.37%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -4.75%E -1.90%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -7.18%E -2.39%K -3.59%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-03 00:10
Everygame🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -7.12%E -2.37%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -4.75%E -1.90%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -7.18%E -2.39%K -3.59%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-03 00:10
Bovada🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.17%EV -7.12%E -2.37%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.17%EV -6.66%E -2.72%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.66%EV -5.63%E -1.85%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-03 00:07
BetAnything🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.17%EV -7.12%E -2.37%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.17%EV -6.66%E -2.72%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.66%EV -5.63%E -1.85%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-03 00:10
Betsson🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.16%EV -7.12%E -2.37%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.69%EV -5.51%E -2.22%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.16%EV -7.18%E -2.39%K -3.59%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-03 00:10
NordicBet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.16%EV -7.12%E -2.37%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.69%EV -5.51%E -2.22%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.16%EV -7.18%E -2.39%K -3.59%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-03 00:10
BetMGM🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -7.12%E -2.37%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -8.56%E -3.57%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -4.08%E -1.32%K -1.94%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-03 00:10
Marathon Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -7.12%E -2.37%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 37.74%EV -5.90%E -2.39%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.99I 33.44%NM 31.18%EV -7.49%E -2.50%K -3.76%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-03 00:15
Betway🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -7.12%E -2.37%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -8.56%E -3.57%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -7.18%E -2.39%K -3.59%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-03 00:10
LowVig.ag🎯2.99I 33.44%NM 31.81%EV -7.43%E -2.48%K -3.73%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 37.01%EV -2.09%E -0.811%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.18%EV -5.63%E -1.85%K -2.75%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-02 22:35
BetOnline.ag🎯2.99I 33.44%NM 31.81%EV -7.43%E -2.48%K -3.73%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 37.01%EV -2.09%E -0.811%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.18%EV -5.63%E -1.85%K -2.75%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-02 22:35
Betclic (FR)🎯2.93I 34.13%NM 30.45%EV -9.29%E -3.17%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.79%EV -12.37%E -5.38%K -9.52%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.76%EV -10.27%E -3.54%K -5.41%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-03 00:08
SportsBet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.74%EV -10.22%E -3.52%K -5.38%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.57%EV -6.66%E -2.72%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.68%EV -7.18%E -2.39%K -3.59%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-03 00:10
Bet Right🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.74%EV -10.22%E -3.52%K -5.38%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.57%EV -6.66%E -2.72%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.68%EV -7.18%E -2.39%K -3.59%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-03 00:10
PlayUp🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.74%EV -10.22%E -3.52%K -5.38%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.57%EV -6.66%E -2.72%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.68%EV -7.18%E -2.39%K -3.59%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-03 00:10
Winamax (DE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.24%EV -10.22%E -3.52%K -5.38%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.56%EV -10.47%E -4.45%K -7.75%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -7.18%E -2.39%K -3.59%G +0.000%10.4%2026-03-03 00:10
BoyleSports🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.17%EV -10.22%E -3.52%K -5.38%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.66%EV -8.56%E -3.57%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.17%EV -10.27%E -3.54%K -5.41%G +0.000%10.6%2026-03-03 00:10
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.50%EV -10.22%E -3.52%K -5.38%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.46%EV -12.37%E -5.38%K -9.52%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.04%EV -11.82%E -4.15%K -6.39%G +0.000%13.0%2026-03-03 00:10
Paddy Power🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.25%EV -10.83%E -3.76%K -5.76%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.50%EV -8.56%E -3.57%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.25%EV -10.89%E -3.78%K -5.79%G +0.000%11.1%2026-03-03 00:09
Betr (AU)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.71%EV -11.76%E -4.13%K -6.36%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.66%EV -8.56%E -3.57%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.63%EV -8.73%E -2.96%K -4.47%G +0.000%10.7%2026-03-03 00:10
NetBet (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 30.55%EV -11.76%E -4.13%K -6.36%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 38.36%EV -13.52%E -5.95%K -10.64%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.10%EV -13.37%E -4.77%K -7.43%G +0.000%14.9%2026-03-03 00:15
Sky Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.76%EV -13.31%E -4.75%K -7.40%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.36%EV -9.32%E -3.92%K -6.76%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.88%EV -10.89%E -3.78%K -5.79%G +0.000%12.5%2026-03-03 00:10
Winamax (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.15%EV -13.31%E -4.75%K -7.40%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 38.77%EV -14.28%E -6.35%K -11.42%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.08%EV -10.27%E -3.54%K -5.41%G +0.000%14.6%2026-03-03 00:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 30.73%EV -13.31%E -4.75%K -7.40%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.41%EV -12.37%E -5.38%K -9.52%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 31.87%EV -16.46%E -6.10%K -9.68%G +0.000%16.2%2026-03-02 20:24
PMU (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 31.39%EV -17.96%E -6.78%K -10.88%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 37.81%EV -16.18%E -7.36%K -13.49%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 30.81%EV -16.46%E -6.10%K -9.68%G +0.000%20.2%2026-03-03 00:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.10I 32.26%NM 32.06%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.36%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.58%0.6%2026-03-03 00:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.10I 32.26%NM 32.06%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.36%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.58%0.6%2026-03-03 00:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.10I 32.26%NM 32.06%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.36%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.58%0.6%2026-03-03 00:15
Matchbook◎3.10I 32.26%NM 31.97%2.64I 37.88%NM 37.54%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.49%0.9%2026-03-03 00:15
Smarkets◎3.05I 32.79%NM 32.17%2.64I 37.88%NM 37.17%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.66%1.9%2026-03-03 00:15