La escuela de los momios

Independiente Rivadavia v River Plate

Inicio: 2026-03-03 00:30 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

38 corredores (16 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Independiente Rivadavia (Local)

Predicción 30.96%3.23momio equitativo
EV -0.927%
Ventaja -0.290%
Kelly -0.421%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.20

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
29.46%30.92%30.97%31.81%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.652.983.003.2037.74%33.57%33.33%31.25%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

River Plate (Visitante)

Predicción 38.10%2.62momio equitativo
EV -2.09%
Ventaja -0.811%
Kelly -1.33%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.57

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
37.01%38.22%38.15%40.12%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.202.412.402.5745.45%41.56%41.67%38.91%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 30.94%3.23momio equitativo
EV -3.77%
Ventaja -1.21%
Kelly -1.79%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.11

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
30.08%30.86%30.88%31.87%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.702.993.003.1137.04%33.48%33.33%32.15%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (38 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Unibet3.20I 31.25%NM 29.46%EV -0.927%E -0.290%K -0.421%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.12%EV -10.47%E -4.45%K -7.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.41%EV -4.08%E -1.32%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-03 00:15
Unibet (SE)3.20I 31.25%NM 29.46%EV -0.927%E -0.290%K -0.421%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.12%EV -10.47%E -4.45%K -7.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.41%EV -4.08%E -1.32%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-03 00:15
BetRivers3.20I 31.25%NM 29.46%EV -0.927%E -0.290%K -0.421%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.12%EV -10.47%E -4.45%K -7.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.41%EV -4.08%E -1.32%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-03 00:15
Pinnacle3.15I 31.75%NM 30.69%EV -2.48%E -0.786%K -1.15%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 38.22%EV -3.61%E -1.43%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.11I 32.15%NM 31.09%EV -3.77%E -1.21%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-03 00:10
LeoVegas (SE)3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -2.48%E -0.786%K -1.15%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.94%EV -11.23%E -4.82%K -8.44%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.51%EV -5.63%E -1.85%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-03 00:15
Ladbrokes (UK)3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -4.02%E -1.30%K -1.92%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -8.56%E -3.57%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -4.08%E -1.32%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-02 14:04
theScore Bet3.10I 32.26%NM 30.32%EV -4.02%E -1.30%K -1.92%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.36%EV -6.66%E -2.72%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.33%EV -7.18%E -2.39%K -3.59%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-03 00:10
Unibet (UK)3.05I 32.79%NM 30.82%EV -5.57%E -1.83%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.36%EV -6.66%E -2.72%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.82%EV -5.63%E -1.85%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-03 00:10
LiveScore Bet3.05I 32.79%NM 29.81%EV -5.57%E -1.83%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 39.88%EV -13.13%E -5.76%K -10.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.31%EV -7.18%E -2.39%K -3.59%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-03 00:10
Virgin Bet3.05I 32.79%NM 29.81%EV -5.57%E -1.83%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 39.88%EV -13.13%E -5.76%K -10.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.31%EV -7.18%E -2.39%K -3.59%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-03 00:10
1xBet3.02I 33.11%NM 31.03%EV -6.50%E -2.15%K -3.22%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 37.63%EV -5.13%E -2.06%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.99I 33.44%NM 31.34%EV -7.49%E -2.50%K -3.76%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-03 00:15
Fanatics3.00I 33.33%NM 31.57%EV -7.12%E -2.37%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.88%EV -4.75%E -1.90%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.55%EV -4.08%E -1.32%K -1.94%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-02 20:54
DraftKings3.00I 33.33%NM 31.41%EV -7.12%E -2.37%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.69%EV -4.75%E -1.90%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.90%EV -5.63%E -1.85%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-03 00:10
FanDuel3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -7.12%E -2.37%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -4.75%E -1.90%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -7.18%E -2.39%K -3.59%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-03 00:10
Everygame3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -7.12%E -2.37%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -4.75%E -1.90%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -7.18%E -2.39%K -3.59%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-03 00:10
Bovada3.00I 33.33%NM 31.17%EV -7.12%E -2.37%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.17%EV -6.66%E -2.72%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.66%EV -5.63%E -1.85%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-03 00:07
BetAnything3.00I 33.33%NM 31.17%EV -7.12%E -2.37%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.17%EV -6.66%E -2.72%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.66%EV -5.63%E -1.85%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-03 00:10
Betsson3.00I 33.33%NM 31.16%EV -7.12%E -2.37%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.69%EV -5.51%E -2.22%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.16%EV -7.18%E -2.39%K -3.59%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-03 00:10
NordicBet3.00I 33.33%NM 31.16%EV -7.12%E -2.37%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.69%EV -5.51%E -2.22%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.16%EV -7.18%E -2.39%K -3.59%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-03 00:10
BetMGM3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -7.12%E -2.37%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -8.56%E -3.57%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -4.08%E -1.32%K -1.94%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-03 00:10
Marathon Bet3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -7.12%E -2.37%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 37.74%EV -5.90%E -2.39%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.99I 33.44%NM 31.18%EV -7.49%E -2.50%K -3.76%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-03 00:15
Betway3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -7.12%E -2.37%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -8.56%E -3.57%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -7.18%E -2.39%K -3.59%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-03 00:10
LowVig.ag2.99I 33.44%NM 31.81%EV -7.43%E -2.48%K -3.73%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 37.01%EV -2.09%E -0.811%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.18%EV -5.63%E -1.85%K -2.75%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-02 22:35
BetOnline.ag2.99I 33.44%NM 31.81%EV -7.43%E -2.48%K -3.73%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 37.01%EV -2.09%E -0.811%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.18%EV -5.63%E -1.85%K -2.75%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-02 22:35
Betclic (FR)2.93I 34.13%NM 30.45%EV -9.29%E -3.17%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.79%EV -12.37%E -5.38%K -9.52%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.76%EV -10.27%E -3.54%K -5.41%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-03 00:08
SportsBet2.90I 34.48%NM 31.74%EV -10.22%E -3.52%K -5.38%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.57%EV -6.66%E -2.72%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.68%EV -7.18%E -2.39%K -3.59%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-03 00:10
Bet Right2.90I 34.48%NM 31.74%EV -10.22%E -3.52%K -5.38%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.57%EV -6.66%E -2.72%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.68%EV -7.18%E -2.39%K -3.59%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-03 00:10
PlayUp2.90I 34.48%NM 31.74%EV -10.22%E -3.52%K -5.38%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.57%EV -6.66%E -2.72%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.68%EV -7.18%E -2.39%K -3.59%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-03 00:10
Winamax (DE)2.90I 34.48%NM 31.24%EV -10.22%E -3.52%K -5.38%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.56%EV -10.47%E -4.45%K -7.75%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -7.18%E -2.39%K -3.59%G +0.000%10.4%2026-03-03 00:10
BoyleSports2.90I 34.48%NM 31.17%EV -10.22%E -3.52%K -5.38%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.66%EV -8.56%E -3.57%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.17%EV -10.27%E -3.54%K -5.41%G +0.000%10.6%2026-03-03 00:10
Parions Sport (FR)2.90I 34.48%NM 30.50%EV -10.22%E -3.52%K -5.38%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.46%EV -12.37%E -5.38%K -9.52%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.04%EV -11.82%E -4.15%K -6.39%G +0.000%13.0%2026-03-03 00:10
Paddy Power2.88I 34.72%NM 31.25%EV -10.83%E -3.76%K -5.76%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.50%EV -8.56%E -3.57%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.25%EV -10.89%E -3.78%K -5.79%G +0.000%11.1%2026-03-03 00:09
Betr (AU)2.85I 35.09%NM 31.71%EV -11.76%E -4.13%K -6.36%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.66%EV -8.56%E -3.57%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.63%EV -8.73%E -2.96%K -4.47%G +0.000%10.7%2026-03-03 00:10
NetBet (FR)2.85I 35.09%NM 30.55%EV -11.76%E -4.13%K -6.36%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 38.36%EV -13.52%E -5.95%K -10.64%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.10%EV -13.37%E -4.77%K -7.43%G +0.000%14.9%2026-03-03 00:15
Sky Bet2.80I 35.71%NM 31.76%EV -13.31%E -4.75%K -7.40%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.36%EV -9.32%E -3.92%K -6.76%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.88%EV -10.89%E -3.78%K -5.79%G +0.000%12.5%2026-03-03 00:10
Winamax (FR)2.80I 35.71%NM 31.15%EV -13.31%E -4.75%K -7.40%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 38.77%EV -14.28%E -6.35%K -11.42%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.08%EV -10.27%E -3.54%K -5.41%G +0.000%14.6%2026-03-03 00:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.80I 35.71%NM 30.73%EV -13.31%E -4.75%K -7.40%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.41%EV -12.37%E -5.38%K -9.52%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 31.87%EV -16.46%E -6.10%K -9.68%G +0.000%16.2%2026-03-02 20:24
PMU (FR)2.65I 37.74%NM 31.39%EV -17.96%E -6.78%K -10.88%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 37.81%EV -16.18%E -7.36%K -13.49%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 30.81%EV -16.46%E -6.10%K -9.68%G +0.000%20.2%2026-03-03 00:10
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.10I 32.26%NM 32.06%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.36%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.58%0.6%2026-03-03 00:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.10I 32.26%NM 32.06%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.36%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.58%0.6%2026-03-03 00:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.10I 32.26%NM 32.06%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.36%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.58%0.6%2026-03-03 00:15
Matchbook3.10I 32.26%NM 31.97%2.64I 37.88%NM 37.54%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.49%0.9%2026-03-03 00:15
Smarkets3.05I 32.79%NM 32.17%2.64I 37.88%NM 37.17%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.66%1.9%2026-03-03 00:15