The School of Odds
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Independiente Rivadavia v Gimnasia Mendoza

Kickoff: 2026-04-26 18:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

33 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Independiente Rivadavia (Local)

Prediction 51.68%1.94fair odd
EV -4.91%
Edge -2.67%
Kelly -5.85%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.84

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.99%51.74%51.66%53.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.661.781.801.8460.24%56.29%55.56%54.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Gimnasia Mendoza (Visit)

Prediction 17.95%5.57fair odd
EV +10.36%
Edge +1.68%
Kelly +2.01%
Growth +0.208%

assuming max odds 6.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.51%17.76%17.96%20.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.335.095.006.1523.09%19.65%20.00%16.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.38%3.29fair odd
EV -1.27%
Edge -0.391%
Kelly -0.565%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.25%30.51%30.37%32.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.073.103.2535.71%32.58%32.26%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Independiente Rivadavia (Local): 51.68%; Gimnasia Mendoza (Visit): 17.95%; Draw: 30.38%. For Gimnasia Mendoza (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.57. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.15, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.36%.

Sportsbook Odds (33 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.14%EV -5.43%E -2.97%K -6.54%G +0.000%6.15I 16.26%NM 15.51%EV +10.36%E +1.68%K +2.01%G +0.208%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV -10.38%E -3.52%K -5.33%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-22 16:54
LowVig.ag🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.14%EV -5.43%E -2.97%K -6.54%G +0.000%6.15I 16.26%NM 15.51%EV +10.36%E +1.68%K +2.01%G +0.208%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV -10.38%E -3.52%K -5.33%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-22 16:54
Pinnacle🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 51.55%EV -4.91%E -2.67%K -5.85%G +0.000%5.94I 16.84%NM 15.97%EV +6.59%E +1.11%K +1.33%G +0.088%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.48%EV -11.30%E -3.87%K -5.88%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-23 18:20
Everygame🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.13%EV -6.98%E -3.88%K -8.73%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.01%EV +3.18%E +0.554%K +0.670%G +0.021%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.87%EV -14.94%E -5.34%K -8.30%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-23 12:45
DraftKings🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.61%EV -6.98%E -3.88%K -8.73%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.89%EV -1.30%E -0.237%K -0.289%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.49%EV -10.38%E -3.52%K -5.33%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-23 18:04
Marathon Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.96%EV -5.43%E -2.97%K -6.54%G +0.000%5.45I 18.35%NM 17.11%EV -2.20%E -0.404%K -0.494%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.93%EV -11.30%E -3.87%K -5.88%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-23 17:40
Unibet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.09%EV -8.02%E -4.50%K -10.28%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.83%EV -4.89%E -0.923%K -1.14%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.08%EV -1.27%E -0.391%K -0.565%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-23 17:34
Unibet (SE)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.09%EV -8.02%E -4.50%K -10.28%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.83%EV -4.89%E -0.923%K -1.14%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.08%EV -1.27%E -0.391%K -0.565%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-23 17:35
NordicBet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.08%EV -6.98%E -3.88%K -8.73%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.69%EV -4.89%E -0.923%K -1.14%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.24%EV -5.83%E -1.88%K -2.78%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-22 22:04
Betsson🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.08%EV -6.98%E -3.88%K -8.73%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.69%EV -4.89%E -0.923%K -1.14%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.24%EV -5.83%E -1.88%K -2.78%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-22 22:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.48%EV -6.98%E -3.88%K -8.73%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.99%EV -5.79%E -1.10%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV -2.79%E -0.872%K -1.27%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-21 18:04
Fanatics🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.58%EV -5.43%E -2.97%K -6.54%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.98%EV -5.79%E -1.10%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.45%EV -5.83%E -1.88%K -2.78%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-21 18:20
BetRivers🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.14%EV -8.53%E -4.82%K -11.08%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.92%EV -5.79%E -1.10%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.94%EV -1.27%E -0.391%K -0.565%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-23 17:34
Unibet (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.24%EV -6.98%E -3.88%K -8.73%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.91%EV -5.79%E -1.10%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.85%EV -4.31%E -1.37%K -2.00%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-23 18:05
Virgin Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.24%EV -11.63%E -6.80%K -16.38%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.85%EV -8.48%E -1.66%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.90%EV -4.31%E -1.37%K -2.00%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-23 17:34
LiveScore Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.24%EV -11.63%E -6.80%K -16.38%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.85%EV -8.48%E -1.66%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.90%EV -4.31%E -1.37%K -2.00%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-23 17:35
Bovada🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.25%EV -5.95%E -3.27%K -7.25%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.66%EV -10.27%E -2.05%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.09%EV -5.83%E -1.88%K -2.78%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-23 14:19
BetMGM🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.43%EV -8.53%E -4.82%K -11.08%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.56%EV -10.27%E -2.05%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.00%EV -2.79%E -0.872%K -1.27%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-21 18:00
theScore Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.53%EV -6.98%E -3.88%K -8.73%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.55%EV -10.27%E -2.05%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.92%EV -5.83%E -1.88%K -2.78%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-23 08:39
Betway🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.61%EV -5.43%E -2.97%K -6.54%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.52%EV -10.27%E -2.05%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.87%EV -8.87%E -2.96%K -4.43%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-23 10:59
BoyleSports🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.02%EV -6.98%E -3.88%K -8.73%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.37%EV -10.27%E -2.05%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.61%EV -8.87%E -2.96%K -4.43%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-23 10:04
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.96%EV -12.15%E -7.15%K -17.36%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.00%EV -10.27%E -2.05%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.04%EV -5.83%E -1.88%K -2.78%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-23 17:35
NetBet (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 51.75%EV -13.18%E -7.85%K -19.39%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 17.74%EV -12.07%E -2.46%K -3.09%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.51%EV -13.42%E -4.71%K -7.26%G +0.000%15.0%2026-04-23 18:05
FanDuel🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.61%EV -6.98%E -3.88%K -8.73%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.35%EV -13.86%E -2.89%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.03%EV -2.79%E -0.872%K -1.27%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-23 14:10
Betclic (FR)🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 51.84%EV -12.67%E -7.49%K -18.36%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.25%EV -13.86%E -2.89%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 29.90%EV -10.99%E -3.75%K -5.70%G +0.000%14.1%2026-04-22 02:44
SportsBet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.74%EV -6.98%E -3.88%K -8.73%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.61%EV -14.76%E -3.11%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -1.27%E -0.391%K -0.565%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-23 14:09
betfred_uk🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.18%EV -6.98%E -3.88%K -8.73%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -17.45%E -3.79%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -2.79%E -0.872%K -1.27%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-23 21:24
Bet Right🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 50.57%EV -6.46%E -3.57%K -7.98%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.90%EV -17.45%E -3.79%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.53%EV -5.83%E -1.88%K -2.78%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-23 23:19
Winamax (DE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 51.60%EV -11.12%E -6.46%K -15.44%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.30%EV -17.45%E -3.79%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.10%EV -7.35%E -2.41%K -3.58%G +0.000%12.7%2026-04-22 02:44
Paddy Power🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.66%EV -9.57%E -5.47%K -12.75%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.09%EV -19.25%E -4.28%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -2.79%E -0.872%K -1.27%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-23 14:09
Winamax (FR)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 51.03%EV -14.22%E -8.56%K -21.54%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.25%EV -21.04%E -4.78%K -6.19%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 29.72%EV -13.42%E -4.71%K -7.26%G +0.000%18.1%2026-04-22 02:45
Sky Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 50.80%EV -9.57%E -5.47%K -12.75%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.53%EV -22.30%E -5.15%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.67%EV -5.83%E -1.88%K -2.78%G +0.000%12.5%2026-04-23 18:04
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 49.99%EV -10.60%E -6.13%K -14.52%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 19.97%EV -22.30%E -5.15%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.03%EV -12.51%E -4.34%K -6.65%G +0.000%15.6%2026-04-24 01:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.85I 54.05%NM 52.31%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.98%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.72%3.3%2026-04-23 18:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.85I 54.05%NM 52.31%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.98%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.72%3.3%2026-04-23 18:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.85I 54.05%NM 52.31%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.98%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.72%3.3%2026-04-23 18:14
Smarkets◎1.83I 54.64%NM 52.16%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.05%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.79%4.8%2026-04-23 18:20
Matchbook◎1.74I 57.47%NM 51.35%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.18%2.84I 35.21%NM 31.46%11.9%2026-04-23 20:55