Language:English
Independiente v San Lorenzo
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Independiente (Local)
Prediction 45.50%2.20fair odd
EV -2.17%
Edge -1.01%
Kelly -1.89%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.15
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.16%45.54%45.37%47.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.852.032.052.1554.05%49.27%48.78%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
San Lorenzo (Visit)
Prediction 22.81%4.38fair odd
EV -1.69%
Edge -0.392%
Kelly -0.510%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.31
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.83%22.80%22.91%25.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.604.034.004.3127.78%24.82%25.00%23.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 31.69%3.16fair odd
EV -1.76%
Edge -0.568%
Kelly -0.839%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.11%31.66%31.72%32.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.942.953.1036.36%34.04%33.90%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Independiente (Local): 45.50%; San Lorenzo (Visit): 22.81%; Draw: 31.69%. For San Lorenzo (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.38. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.31, with an expected value of -1.69%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.92%EV -2.17%E -1.01%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.99%EV -4.20%E -1.000%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 3.01I 33.22%NM 32.09%EV -4.61%E -1.53%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-09-13 04:00 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.92%EV -2.17%E -1.01%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.99%EV -4.20%E -1.000%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 3.01I 33.22%NM 32.09%EV -4.61%E -1.53%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-09-13 04:00 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.92%EV -2.17%E -1.01%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.99%EV -4.20%E -1.000%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 3.01I 33.22%NM 32.09%EV -4.61%E -1.53%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-09-13 04:00 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.63%EV -3.54%E -1.67%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 4.31I 23.20%NM 22.44%EV -1.69%E -0.392%K -0.510%G +0.000% | 3.03I 33.00%NM 31.93%EV -3.98%E -1.31%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-09-13 22:05 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.27%EV -3.54%E -1.67%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 4.09I 24.45%NM 23.47%EV -6.71%E -1.64%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 3.07I 32.57%NM 31.26%EV -2.71%E -0.883%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-13 22:10 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.96%EV -4.45%E -2.12%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.48%EV -4.20%E -1.000%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -8.10%E -2.79%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-13 21:44 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -4.45%E -2.12%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.90%EV -6.48%E -1.58%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.38%EV -8.10%E -2.79%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-13 21:45 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.46%EV -4.45%E -2.12%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -8.76%E -2.19%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.20%EV -8.10%E -2.79%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-13 21:40 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.46%EV -4.45%E -2.12%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -8.76%E -2.19%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.20%EV -8.10%E -2.79%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-13 21:45 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.42%EV -5.36%E -2.58%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.23%EV -3.06%E -0.720%K -0.941%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.35%EV -7.47%E -2.56%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-13 22:10 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.42%EV -5.36%E -2.58%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.23%EV -3.06%E -0.720%K -0.941%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.35%EV -7.47%E -2.56%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-13 22:10 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.56%EV -5.81%E -2.81%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.00%EV -6.48%E -1.58%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.44%EV -4.93%E -1.64%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-13 21:50 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.81%EV -6.72%E -3.28%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.36%EV -4.20%E -1.000%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.83%EV -6.51%E -2.21%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-13 21:50 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.80%EV -6.72%E -3.28%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.83%EV -1.92%E -0.446%K -0.581%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -8.10%E -2.79%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-13 21:50 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.54%EV -6.72%E -3.28%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -8.76%E -2.19%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -4.93%E -1.64%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-13 21:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.54%EV -6.72%E -3.28%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -8.76%E -2.19%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -4.93%E -1.64%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-13 21:55 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.31%EV -6.72%E -3.28%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.66%EV -6.48%E -1.58%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.03%EV -8.10%E -2.79%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-13 21:45 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.30%EV -6.72%E -3.28%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.22%EV -8.76%E -2.19%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.48%EV -6.51%E -2.21%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-13 21:50 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.06%EV -6.72%E -3.28%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.53%EV -6.48%E -1.58%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.41%EV -9.68%E -3.40%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-13 22:10 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.06%EV -6.72%E -3.28%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.09%EV -8.76%E -2.19%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.85%EV -8.10%E -2.79%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-13 21:00 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.84%EV -6.72%E -3.28%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.51%EV -14.46%E -3.86%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.64%EV -4.93%E -1.64%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-13 20:56 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.69%EV -6.72%E -3.28%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.76%EV -15.60%E -4.22%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.54%EV -4.93%E -1.64%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-13 21:05 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.16%EV -6.72%E -3.28%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.15%EV -17.88%E -4.97%K -6.88%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.69%EV -6.51%E -2.21%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-09-13 21:05 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.73%EV -7.18%E -3.52%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.21%EV -4.20%E -1.000%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 2.91I 34.36%NM 32.06%EV -7.78%E -2.67%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-13 22:09 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.74%EV -9.00%E -4.50%K -9.00%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.76%EV -12.18%E -3.16%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.50%EV -4.93%E -1.64%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-13 21:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.16%EV -9.00%E -4.50%K -9.00%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -8.76%E -2.19%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.26%EV -11.27%E -4.02%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-13 21:45 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.16%EV -9.00%E -4.50%K -9.00%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -8.76%E -2.19%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.26%EV -11.27%E -4.02%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-13 22:00 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.37%EV -9.00%E -4.50%K -9.00%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.35%EV -13.32%E -3.51%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.27%EV -12.85%E -4.67%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-09-13 21:45 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.52%EV -10.36%E -5.26%K -10.69%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.29%EV -4.20%E -1.000%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.20%EV -1.76%E -0.568%K -0.839%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-13 22:10 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 47.64%EV -10.82%E -5.52%K -11.27%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.23%EV -4.20%E -1.000%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -1.76%E -0.568%K -0.839%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-13 22:10 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 45.72%EV -10.82%E -5.52%K -11.27%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.90%EV -14.46%E -3.86%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.38%EV -6.51%E -2.21%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-09-13 21:50 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 47.55%EV -12.18%E -6.31%K -13.10%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.85%EV -4.20%E -1.000%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.59%EV -4.93%E -1.64%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-13 21:55 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 45.49%EV -12.18%E -6.31%K -13.10%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 22.81%EV -12.18%E -3.16%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 2.77I 36.10%NM 31.70%EV -12.22%E -4.41%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-09-13 21:45 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 45.74%EV -12.64%E -6.58%K -13.74%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.11%EV -13.32%E -3.51%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 31.14%EV -10.63%E -3.77%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-09-13 21:50 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 47.06%EV -13.55%E -7.13%K -15.06%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.64%EV -9.90%E -2.51%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.31%EV -6.51%E -2.21%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-09-13 22:10 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 47.06%EV -13.55%E -7.13%K -15.06%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.64%EV -9.90%E -2.51%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.31%EV -6.51%E -2.21%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-09-13 22:10 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 46.42%EV -14.00%E -7.41%K -15.74%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 22.79%EV -12.18%E -3.16%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 30.79%EV -9.68%E -3.40%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-09-13 21:49 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 47.20%EV -15.82%E -8.55%K -18.62%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 22.68%EV -12.18%E -3.16%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.11%EV -8.10%E -2.79%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 14.5% | 2026-09-13 22:10 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.20I 45.45%NM 45.02% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.51% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.47% | 1.0% | 2026-09-13 22:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.18I 45.87%NM 45.24% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.42% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.34% | 1.4% | 2026-09-13 21:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.18I 45.87%NM 45.24% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.42% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.34% | 1.4% | 2026-09-13 21:35 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.13I 46.95%NM 46.03% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.54% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 31.43% | 2.0% | 2026-09-13 21:20 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.16I 46.30%NM 45.23% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.20% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.57% | 2.4% | 2026-09-13 21:55 |