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Gimnasia Mendoza v Union Santa Fe
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Gimnasia Mendoza (Local)
Prediction 33.82%2.96fair odd
EV +4.84%
Edge +1.56%
Kelly +2.30%
Growth +0.111%
assuming max odds 3.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.23%33.70%33.83%34.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.802.763.1038.46%35.73%36.17%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Union Santa Fe (Visit)
Prediction 35.70%2.80fair odd
EV -1.83%
Edge -0.664%
Kelly -1.04%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.70%35.92%35.62%39.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.322.562.582.7543.10%39.04%38.68%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 30.48%3.28fair odd
EV -2.46%
Edge -0.768%
Kelly -1.12%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.56%30.38%30.55%31.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.873.053.083.2034.84%32.80%32.52%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Gimnasia Mendoza (Local): 33.82%; Union Santa Fe (Visit): 35.70%; Draw: 30.48%. For Gimnasia Mendoza (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.96. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.84%.
Sportsbook Odds (36 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.53%EV +4.84%E +1.56%K +2.30%G +0.111% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 38.94%EV -13.25%E -5.45%K -9.27%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.53%EV -5.51%E -1.78%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-01 18:19 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.53%EV +4.84%E +1.56%K +2.30%G +0.111% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 38.94%EV -13.25%E -5.45%K -9.27%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.53%EV -5.51%E -1.78%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-01 18:20 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.23%EV +4.84%E +1.56%K +2.30%G +0.111% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.05%EV -14.32%E -5.97%K -10.23%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.72%EV -7.03%E -2.31%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-01 18:10 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.42%EV +1.46%E +0.486%K +0.728%G +0.011% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 39.16%EV -16.82%E -7.22%K -12.65%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.42%EV -8.55%E -2.85%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-08-01 18:24 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.42%EV +1.46%E +0.486%K +0.728%G +0.011% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 39.16%EV -16.82%E -7.22%K -12.65%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.42%EV -8.55%E -2.85%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-08-01 18:25 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.57%EV -0.234%E -0.079%K -0.120%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 38.87%EV -17.18%E -7.40%K -13.01%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.57%EV -10.08%E -3.42%K -5.17%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-08-01 18:20 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.87I 34.84%NM 33.74%EV -2.94%E -1.02%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 35.22%EV -1.83%E -0.664%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 31.04%EV -4.90%E -1.57%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-08-01 18:20 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.87I 34.84%NM 33.67%EV -2.94%E -1.02%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 2.74I 36.50%NM 35.26%EV -2.18%E -0.797%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 3.11I 32.15%NM 31.07%EV -5.20%E -1.67%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-08-01 18:19 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.87I 34.84%NM 33.67%EV -2.94%E -1.02%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 2.74I 36.50%NM 35.26%EV -2.18%E -0.797%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 3.11I 32.15%NM 31.07%EV -5.20%E -1.67%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-08-01 18:19 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.87I 34.84%NM 33.67%EV -2.94%E -1.02%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 2.74I 36.50%NM 35.26%EV -2.18%E -0.797%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 3.11I 32.15%NM 31.07%EV -5.20%E -1.67%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-08-01 18:20 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.05%EV -3.62%E -1.27%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.55%EV -5.40%E -2.04%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.40%EV -8.55%E -2.85%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-01 17:59 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.79%EV -5.31%E -1.90%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.70%EV -5.40%E -2.04%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.52%EV -5.51%E -1.78%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-01 17:58 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.79%EV -5.31%E -1.90%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.70%EV -5.40%E -2.04%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.52%EV -5.51%E -1.78%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-01 17:59 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.62%EV -5.31%E -1.90%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.52%EV -5.40%E -2.04%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.86%EV -7.03%E -2.31%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-01 18:09 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -5.31%E -1.90%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.14%EV -7.18%E -2.76%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV -5.51%E -1.78%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-01 18:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.22%EV -5.31%E -1.90%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.78%EV -7.18%E -2.76%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.01%EV -8.55%E -2.85%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-01 18:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.78I 35.97%NM 34.25%EV -5.98%E -2.15%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 35.53%EV -4.33%E -1.61%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.23%EV -3.98%E -1.26%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-01 17:55 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.78I 35.97%NM 34.25%EV -5.98%E -2.15%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 35.53%EV -4.33%E -1.61%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.23%EV -3.98%E -1.26%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-01 17:55 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.19%EV -7.00%E -2.54%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.48%EV -5.40%E -2.04%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.33%EV -5.51%E -1.78%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-01 17:54 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.07%EV -7.00%E -2.54%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.70%EV -3.61%E -1.34%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -8.55%E -2.85%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-01 18:09 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -7.00%E -2.54%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.74%EV -6.47%E -2.47%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.21%EV -5.51%E -1.78%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-01 17:55 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.96%EV -7.00%E -2.54%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.92%EV -7.18%E -2.76%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -5.51%E -1.78%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-01 18:23 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.71%EV -7.00%E -2.54%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.38%EV -6.47%E -2.47%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.90%EV -8.55%E -2.85%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-01 18:09 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.48%EV -7.00%E -2.54%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.83%EV -10.75%E -4.30%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.70%EV -5.51%E -1.78%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-01 17:55 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.32%EV -7.00%E -2.54%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.65%EV -10.75%E -4.30%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.04%EV -7.03%E -2.31%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-01 17:54 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.72I 36.76%NM 34.32%EV -8.01%E -2.95%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 2.57I 38.91%NM 36.32%EV -8.25%E -3.21%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 3.18I 31.45%NM 29.36%EV -3.07%E -0.965%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-01 18:18 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.60%EV -8.69%E -3.22%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.26%EV -5.40%E -2.04%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.14%EV -5.51%E -1.78%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-01 17:53 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.56%EV -8.69%E -3.22%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.24%EV -10.75%E -4.30%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -8.55%E -2.85%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-08-01 17:55 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.37%EV -8.69%E -3.22%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.34%EV -8.97%E -3.52%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.29%EV -12.21%E -4.24%K -6.50%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-08-01 18:15 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.14%EV -8.69%E -3.22%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.79%EV -10.75%E -4.30%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.07%EV -12.21%E -4.24%K -6.50%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-08-01 18:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.14%EV -8.69%E -3.22%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.79%EV -10.75%E -4.30%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.07%EV -12.21%E -4.24%K -6.50%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-08-01 18:04 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.67I 37.45%NM 33.49%EV -9.70%E -3.63%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 2.47I 40.49%NM 36.20%EV -11.82%E -4.79%K -8.04%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.31%EV -10.08%E -3.42%K -5.17%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-08-01 18:05 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.14%EV -10.38%E -3.92%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.19%EV -10.75%E -4.30%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.67%EV -7.03%E -2.31%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-08-01 18:00 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.88%EV -11.39%E -4.35%K -7.03%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -10.75%E -4.30%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.56%EV -2.46%E -0.768%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-08-01 18:04 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.15%EV -12.07%E -4.64%K -7.54%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.25%EV -12.54%E -5.12%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.60%EV -8.55%E -2.85%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-08-01 18:00 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 33.80%EV -12.07%E -4.64%K -7.54%G +0.000% | 2.47I 40.49%NM 35.58%EV -11.82%E -4.79%K -8.04%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 30.62%EV -12.52%E -4.36%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-08-01 18:14 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.00I 33.33%NM 33.07% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 35.43% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.50% | 0.8% | 2026-08-01 18:09 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.00I 33.33%NM 33.07% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 35.43% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.50% | 0.8% | 2026-08-01 18:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.00I 33.33%NM 33.07% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 35.43% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.50% | 0.8% | 2026-08-01 18:10 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.98I 33.56%NM 33.05% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 35.18% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.77% | 1.5% | 2026-08-01 18:10 |
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