The School of Odds

Gimnasia Mendoza v Union Santa Fe

2026-08-01 18:30 UTC — Primera División - Argentina

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Gimnasia Mendoza (Local)

Prediction 32.62%3.07fair odd
EV -6.07%
Edge -2.11%
Kelly -3.23%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.96%32.59%32.76%33.05%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.552.772.802.8839.22%36.14%35.71%34.72%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Union Santa Fe (Visit)

Prediction 35.98%2.78fair odd
EV -4.67%
Edge -1.76%
Kelly -2.83%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.32%36.00%35.91%36.45%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.352.522.552.6542.55%39.63%39.14%37.74%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 31.41%3.18fair odd
EV -4.51%
Edge -1.49%
Kelly -2.21%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.04

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.69%31.41%31.33%32.03%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.702.892.893.0437.04%34.61%34.60%32.89%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (UK)2.88I 34.72%NM 32.25%EV -6.07%E -2.11%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.72%EV -6.46%E -2.49%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.03%EV -8.91%E -3.07%K -4.69%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-25 22:29
Fanatics2.85I 35.09%NM 33.05%EV -7.05%E -2.47%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.55%EV -4.67%E -1.76%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.40%EV -5.77%E -1.92%K -2.89%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-25 22:50
SportsBet2.85I 35.09%NM 32.83%EV -7.05%E -2.47%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.98%EV -6.46%E -2.49%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -5.77%E -1.92%K -2.89%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-25 22:29
FanDuel2.85I 35.09%NM 32.83%EV -7.05%E -2.47%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.98%EV -6.46%E -2.49%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -5.77%E -1.92%K -2.89%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-25 22:30
Marathon Bet2.84I 35.21%NM 32.86%EV -7.37%E -2.60%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 36.45%EV -7.90%E -3.09%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 30.69%EV -4.51%E -1.49%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-25 22:44
Bet Right2.80I 35.71%NM 32.82%EV -8.68%E -3.10%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.03%EV -8.26%E -3.24%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.15%EV -7.34%E -2.49%K -3.77%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-25 22:34
betfred_uk2.80I 35.71%NM 32.80%EV -8.68%E -3.10%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.32%EV -6.46%E -2.49%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.89%EV -9.54%E -3.31%K -5.07%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-25 22:29
Paddy Power2.75I 36.36%NM 32.73%EV -10.31%E -3.75%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.01%EV -10.06%E -4.02%K -6.71%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.26%EV -9.54%E -3.31%K -5.07%G +0.000%11.1%2026-07-25 22:30
Betclic (FR)2.75I 36.36%NM 31.96%EV -10.31%E -3.75%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 36.32%EV -12.94%E -5.35%K -9.11%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 31.73%EV -13.00%E -4.69%K -7.34%G +0.000%13.8%2026-07-25 22:29
Winamax (DE)2.65I 37.74%NM 32.78%EV -13.57%E -5.12%K -8.22%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.20%EV -13.66%E -5.69%K -9.76%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.02%EV -12.05%E -4.30%K -6.70%G +0.000%15.1%2026-07-25 22:29
Sky Bet2.63I 38.02%NM 33.01%EV -14.22%E -5.41%K -8.73%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 35.43%EV -11.86%E -4.84%K -8.18%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.56%EV -13.62%E -4.95%K -7.78%G +0.000%15.2%2026-07-25 22:29
Winamax (FR)2.55I 39.22%NM 33.01%EV -16.83%E -6.60%K -10.86%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 35.82%EV -15.46%E -6.58%K -11.45%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 31.17%EV -15.19%E -5.63%K -8.94%G +0.000%18.8%2026-07-25 22:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets2.66I 37.59%NM 32.42%2.42I 41.32%NM 35.64%2.70I 37.04%NM 31.94%16.0%2026-07-25 22:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-07-25 22:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-07-25 22:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-07-25 22:55