Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Gimnasia Mendoza v Union Santa Fe

Início: 2026-08-01 18:30 UTC

Final: Gimnasia Mendoza 2–0 Union Santa Fe

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

36 casas de apostas (17 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Gimnasia Mendoza (Local)

Previsão 33.82%2.96odd justa
EV +4.84%
Vantagem +1.56%
Kelly +2.30%
Crescimento +0.111%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.10

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
30.23%33.70%33.83%34.88%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.602.802.763.1038.46%35.73%36.17%32.26%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Union Santa Fe (Visitante)

Previsão 35.70%2.80odd justa
EV -1.83%
Vantagem -0.664%
Kelly -1.04%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.75

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
34.70%35.92%35.62%39.16%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.322.562.582.7543.10%39.04%38.68%36.36%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 30.48%3.28odd justa
EV -2.46%
Vantagem -0.768%
Kelly -1.12%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.20

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
28.56%30.38%30.55%31.40%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.873.053.083.2034.84%32.80%32.52%31.25%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Gimnasia Mendoza (Local): 33.82%; Union Santa Fe (Visitante): 35.70%; Empate: 30.48%. Para Gimnasia Mendoza (Local), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 2.96. 5 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 3.10, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +4.84%.

Odds das casas de apostas (36 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargemAtualização
Unibet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.53%EV +4.84%E +1.56%K +2.30%G +0.111%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.94%EV -13.25%E -5.45%K -9.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.53%EV -5.51%E -1.78%K -2.62%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-01 18:19
Unibet (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.53%EV +4.84%E +1.56%K +2.30%G +0.111%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.94%EV -13.25%E -5.45%K -9.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.53%EV -5.51%E -1.78%K -2.62%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-01 18:20
BetRivers🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.23%EV +4.84%E +1.56%K +2.30%G +0.111%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.05%EV -14.32%E -5.97%K -10.23%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.72%EV -7.03%E -2.31%K -3.43%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-01 18:10
LiveScore Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.42%EV +1.46%E +0.486%K +0.728%G +0.011%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.16%EV -16.82%E -7.22%K -12.65%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.42%EV -8.55%E -2.85%K -4.28%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-01 18:24
Virgin Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.42%EV +1.46%E +0.486%K +0.728%G +0.011%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.16%EV -16.82%E -7.22%K -12.65%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.42%EV -8.55%E -2.85%K -4.28%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-01 18:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.57%EV -0.234%E -0.079%K -0.120%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 38.87%EV -17.18%E -7.40%K -13.01%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.57%EV -10.08%E -3.42%K -5.17%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-01 18:20
Pinnacle🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 33.74%EV -2.94%E -1.02%K -1.57%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 35.22%EV -1.83%E -0.664%K -1.04%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 31.04%EV -4.90%E -1.57%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-01 18:20
LowVig.ag🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 33.67%EV -2.94%E -1.02%K -1.57%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 35.26%EV -2.18%E -0.797%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.11I 32.15%NM 31.07%EV -5.20%E -1.67%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-01 18:19
BetOnline.ag🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 33.67%EV -2.94%E -1.02%K -1.57%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 35.26%EV -2.18%E -0.797%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.11I 32.15%NM 31.07%EV -5.20%E -1.67%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-01 18:19
BetAnything🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 33.67%EV -2.94%E -1.02%K -1.57%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 35.26%EV -2.18%E -0.797%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.11I 32.15%NM 31.07%EV -5.20%E -1.67%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-01 18:20
FanDuel🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.05%EV -3.62%E -1.27%K -1.95%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.55%EV -5.40%E -2.04%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.40%EV -8.55%E -2.85%K -4.28%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-01 17:59
Unibet (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.79%EV -5.31%E -1.90%K -2.95%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.70%EV -5.40%E -2.04%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.52%EV -5.51%E -1.78%K -2.62%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-01 17:58
Codere (IT)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.79%EV -5.31%E -1.90%K -2.95%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.70%EV -5.40%E -2.04%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.52%EV -5.51%E -1.78%K -2.62%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-01 17:59
DraftKings🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.62%EV -5.31%E -1.90%K -2.95%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.52%EV -5.40%E -2.04%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.86%EV -7.03%E -2.31%K -3.43%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-01 18:09
theScore Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -5.31%E -1.90%K -2.95%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.14%EV -7.18%E -2.76%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV -5.51%E -1.78%K -2.62%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-01 18:00
SportsBet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.22%EV -5.31%E -1.90%K -2.95%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.78%EV -7.18%E -2.76%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.01%EV -8.55%E -2.85%K -4.28%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-01 18:00
NordicBet🎯2.78I 35.97%NM 34.25%EV -5.98%E -2.15%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.53%EV -4.33%E -1.61%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.23%EV -3.98%E -1.26%K -1.85%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-01 17:55
Betsson🎯2.78I 35.97%NM 34.25%EV -5.98%E -2.15%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.53%EV -4.33%E -1.61%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.23%EV -3.98%E -1.26%K -1.85%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-01 17:55
Fanatics🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.19%EV -7.00%E -2.54%K -4.00%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.48%EV -5.40%E -2.04%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.33%EV -5.51%E -1.78%K -2.62%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-01 17:54
Everygame🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.07%EV -7.00%E -2.54%K -4.00%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.70%EV -3.61%E -1.34%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -8.55%E -2.85%K -4.28%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-01 18:09
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -7.00%E -2.54%K -4.00%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.74%EV -6.47%E -2.47%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.21%EV -5.51%E -1.78%K -2.62%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-01 17:55
Bovada🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.96%EV -7.00%E -2.54%K -4.00%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.92%EV -7.18%E -2.76%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -5.51%E -1.78%K -2.62%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-01 18:23
Betway🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.71%EV -7.00%E -2.54%K -4.00%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.38%EV -6.47%E -2.47%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.90%EV -8.55%E -2.85%K -4.28%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-01 18:09
betfred_uk🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.48%EV -7.00%E -2.54%K -4.00%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.83%EV -10.75%E -4.30%K -7.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.70%EV -5.51%E -1.78%K -2.62%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-01 17:55
Bet Right🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.32%EV -7.00%E -2.54%K -4.00%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.65%EV -10.75%E -4.30%K -7.17%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.04%EV -7.03%E -2.31%K -3.43%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-01 17:54
Marathon Bet🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 34.32%EV -8.01%E -2.95%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 36.32%EV -8.25%E -3.21%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.36%EV -3.07%E -0.965%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-01 18:18
BetMGM🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.60%EV -8.69%E -3.22%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.26%EV -5.40%E -2.04%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.14%EV -5.51%E -1.78%K -2.62%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-01 17:53
Betr (AU)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.56%EV -8.69%E -3.22%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.24%EV -10.75%E -4.30%K -7.17%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -8.55%E -2.85%K -4.28%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-01 17:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.37%EV -8.69%E -3.22%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.34%EV -8.97%E -3.52%K -5.78%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.29%EV -12.21%E -4.24%K -6.50%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-01 18:15
Sky Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.14%EV -8.69%E -3.22%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.79%EV -10.75%E -4.30%K -7.17%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.07%EV -12.21%E -4.24%K -6.50%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-01 18:00
Paddy Power🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.14%EV -8.69%E -3.22%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.79%EV -10.75%E -4.30%K -7.17%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.07%EV -12.21%E -4.24%K -6.50%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-01 18:04
Betclic (FR)🎯2.67I 37.45%NM 33.49%EV -9.70%E -3.63%K -5.81%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 36.20%EV -11.82%E -4.79%K -8.04%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.31%EV -10.08%E -3.42%K -5.17%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-01 18:05
Winamax (DE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.14%EV -10.38%E -3.92%K -6.29%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.19%EV -10.75%E -4.30%K -7.17%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.67%EV -7.03%E -2.31%K -3.43%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-01 18:00
BoyleSports🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.88%EV -11.39%E -4.35%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -10.75%E -4.30%K -7.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.56%EV -2.46%E -0.768%K -1.12%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-01 18:04
Winamax (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.15%EV -12.07%E -4.64%K -7.54%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.25%EV -12.54%E -5.12%K -8.65%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.60%EV -8.55%E -2.85%K -4.28%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-01 18:00
NetBet (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 33.80%EV -12.07%E -4.64%K -7.54%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 35.58%EV -11.82%E -4.79%K -8.04%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 30.62%EV -12.52%E -4.36%K -6.69%G +0.000%13.8%2026-08-01 18:14
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (4)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.00I 33.33%NM 33.07%2.80I 35.71%NM 35.43%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.50%0.8%2026-08-01 18:09
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.00I 33.33%NM 33.07%2.80I 35.71%NM 35.43%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.50%0.8%2026-08-01 18:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.00I 33.33%NM 33.07%2.80I 35.71%NM 35.43%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.50%0.8%2026-08-01 18:10
Smarkets2.98I 33.56%NM 33.05%2.80I 35.71%NM 35.18%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.77%1.5%2026-08-01 18:10