The School of Odds
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Gimnasia Mendoza v Lanus

Kickoff: 2026-04-21 00:45 UTC

Final: Gimnasia Mendoza 1–0 Lanus

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

34 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gimnasia Mendoza (Local)

Prediction 29.80%3.36fair odd
EV +1.32%
Edge +0.388%
Kelly +0.550%
Growth +0.007%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.61%29.69%29.87%30.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.143.103.4034.48%31.84%32.26%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Lanus (Visit)

Prediction 35.42%2.82fair odd
EV -2.96%
Edge -1.08%
Kelly -1.70%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.40%35.64%35.32%39.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.562.622.7443.48%39.02%38.17%36.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 34.78%2.87fair odd
EV +0.180%
Edge +0.063%
Kelly +0.096%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.81%34.67%34.81%35.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.682.682.8841.67%37.38%37.31%34.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Gimnasia Mendoza (Local): 29.80%; Lanus (Visit): 35.42%; Draw: 34.78%. For Gimnasia Mendoza (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.36. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.32%.

Sportsbook Odds (34 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.80%EV +1.32%E +0.388%K +0.550%G +0.007%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.38%EV -15.00%E -6.25%K -10.72%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.82%EV +0.180%E +0.063%K +0.096%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-21 00:20
Unibet (SE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.80%EV +1.32%E +0.388%K +0.550%G +0.007%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.38%EV -15.00%E -6.25%K -10.72%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.82%EV +0.180%E +0.063%K +0.096%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-21 00:20
BetRivers🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.91%EV -0.171%E -0.051%K -0.073%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.28%EV -15.71%E -6.60%K -11.39%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.81%EV -0.863%E -0.303%K -0.467%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-21 00:20
BetOnline.ag🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV -1.66%E -0.503%K -0.722%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 35.83%EV -5.80%E -2.18%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.30%EV -6.08%E -2.25%K -3.58%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-21 00:25
LowVig.ag🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV -1.66%E -0.503%K -0.722%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 35.83%EV -5.80%E -2.18%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.30%EV -6.08%E -2.25%K -3.58%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-21 00:25
Virgin Bet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.61%EV -1.66%E -0.503%K -0.722%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 39.27%EV -17.84%E -7.69%K -13.51%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.13%EV -4.34%E -1.58%K -2.48%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-21 00:40
LiveScore Bet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.61%EV -1.66%E -0.503%K -0.722%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 39.27%EV -17.84%E -7.69%K -13.51%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.13%EV -4.34%E -1.58%K -2.48%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-21 00:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -3.15%E -0.969%K -1.40%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.31%EV -18.54%E -8.06%K -14.27%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.88%EV -4.34%E -1.58%K -2.48%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-21 00:40
Pinnacle🎯3.24I 30.86%NM 29.87%EV -3.45%E -1.06%K -1.54%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 35.32%EV -2.96%E -1.08%K -1.70%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.81%EV -3.30%E -1.19%K -1.85%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-21 00:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -4.64%E -1.45%K -2.11%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.79%EV -4.38%E -1.62%K -2.58%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.85%EV -8.86%E -3.38%K -5.47%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-21 00:30
Fanatics🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.28%EV -4.64%E -1.45%K -2.11%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.36%EV -6.15%E -2.32%K -3.73%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.36%EV -7.82%E -2.95%K -4.74%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-21 00:29
BetAnything🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.28%EV -4.64%E -1.45%K -2.11%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.36%EV -6.15%E -2.32%K -3.73%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.36%EV -7.82%E -2.95%K -4.74%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-21 00:29
BetMGM🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -4.64%E -1.45%K -2.11%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.12%EV -6.15%E -2.32%K -3.73%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -9.56%E -3.68%K -5.97%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-21 00:29
Marathon Bet🎯3.16I 31.65%NM 29.54%EV -5.83%E -1.85%K -2.70%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.23%EV -6.15%E -2.32%K -3.73%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.23%EV -7.82%E -2.95%K -4.74%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-21 00:40
DraftKings🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%EV -6.13%E -1.95%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.00%EV -4.38%E -1.62%K -2.58%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.00%EV -6.08%E -2.25%K -3.58%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-21 00:40
NordicBet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.18%EV -7.62%E -2.46%K -3.63%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 34.91%EV -5.09%E -1.90%K -3.03%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 34.91%EV -6.78%E -2.53%K -4.03%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-21 00:40
Betsson🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.18%EV -7.62%E -2.46%K -3.63%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 34.91%EV -5.09%E -1.90%K -3.03%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 34.91%EV -6.78%E -2.53%K -4.03%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-21 00:40
FanDuel🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.14%EV -7.62%E -2.46%K -3.63%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.60%EV -4.38%E -1.62%K -2.58%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.26%EV -7.82%E -2.95%K -4.74%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-21 00:39
Bovada🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.14%EV -7.62%E -2.46%K -3.63%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.60%EV -4.38%E -1.62%K -2.58%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.26%EV -7.82%E -2.95%K -4.74%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-21 00:39
Everygame🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.14%EV -7.62%E -2.46%K -3.63%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.26%EV -6.15%E -2.32%K -3.73%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.60%EV -6.08%E -2.25%K -3.58%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-21 00:20
SportsBet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -7.62%E -2.46%K -3.63%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.46%EV -4.38%E -1.62%K -2.58%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.52%EV -8.86%E -3.38%K -5.47%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-21 00:39
theScore Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.94%EV -7.62%E -2.46%K -3.63%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.69%EV -7.92%E -3.05%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.37%EV -6.08%E -2.25%K -3.58%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-21 00:35
betfred_uk🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.70%EV -7.62%E -2.46%K -3.63%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.83%EV -11.46%E -4.58%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.48%EV -4.34%E -1.58%K -2.48%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-20 23:59
Bet Right🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.51%EV -7.62%E -2.46%K -3.63%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.60%EV -11.46%E -4.58%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.89%EV -6.08%E -2.25%K -3.58%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-21 00:39
Betr (AU)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.67%EV -9.11%E -2.99%K -4.44%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.19%EV -11.46%E -4.58%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.14%EV -7.82%E -2.95%K -4.74%G +0.000%10.5%2026-04-21 00:25
Betclic (FR)🎯3.02I 33.11%NM 29.59%EV -10.00%E -3.31%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.04%EV -12.17%E -4.91%K -8.22%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.37%EV -9.56%E -3.68%K -5.97%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-21 00:34
Betway🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.71%EV -10.60%E -3.53%K -5.30%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.17%EV -7.21%E -2.75%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.12%EV -6.08%E -2.25%K -3.58%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-21 00:20
Winamax (DE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.42%EV -10.60%E -3.53%K -5.30%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.79%EV -9.69%E -3.80%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.80%EV -6.08%E -2.25%K -3.58%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-21 00:35
BoyleSports🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -10.60%E -3.53%K -5.30%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -7.21%E -2.75%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -8.86%E -3.38%K -5.47%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-21 00:19
Paddy Power🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.31%EV -10.60%E -3.53%K -5.30%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.71%EV -7.21%E -2.75%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.98%EV -9.56%E -3.68%K -5.97%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-21 00:40
Sky Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.82%EV -10.60%E -3.53%K -5.30%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.40%EV -7.92%E -3.05%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.78%EV -13.04%E -5.22%K -8.69%G +0.000%11.8%2026-04-21 00:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 28.57%EV -10.60%E -3.53%K -5.30%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 35.71%EV -15.00%E -6.25%K -10.72%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 35.71%EV -16.52%E -6.88%K -11.80%G +0.000%16.7%2026-04-21 00:40
NetBet (FR)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 29.53%EV -12.09%E -4.10%K -6.20%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.30%EV -15.00%E -6.25%K -10.72%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.17%EV -11.30%E -4.43%K -7.29%G +0.000%14.8%2026-04-21 00:25
Winamax (FR)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.31%EV -13.58%E -4.68%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 35.88%EV -13.23%E -5.40%K -9.13%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.81%EV -9.56%E -3.68%K -5.97%G +0.000%13.8%2026-04-21 00:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.35I 29.85%NM 29.77%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.87%2.82I 35.46%NM 35.36%0.3%2026-04-21 00:40
Matchbook◎3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.71%2.82I 35.46%NM 35.20%0.7%2026-04-21 00:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.71%2.82I 35.46%NM 35.20%0.7%2026-04-21 00:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.71%2.82I 35.46%NM 35.20%0.7%2026-04-21 00:40
Smarkets◎3.25I 30.77%NM 30.26%2.84I 35.21%NM 34.62%2.80I 35.71%NM 35.12%1.7%2026-04-21 00:40