La escuela de los momios

Gimnasia Mendoza v Lanus

Inicio: 2026-04-21 00:45 UTC

Final: Gimnasia Mendoza 1–0 Lanus

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

34 corredores (15 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Gimnasia Mendoza (Local)

Predicción 29.80%3.36momio equitativo
EV +1.32%
Ventaja +0.388%
Kelly +0.550%
Crecimiento +0.007%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.40

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.61%29.69%29.87%30.71%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.903.143.103.4034.48%31.84%32.26%29.41%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Lanus (Visitante)

Predicción 35.42%2.82momio equitativo
EV -2.96%
Ventaja -1.08%
Kelly -1.70%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.74

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
34.40%35.64%35.32%39.38%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.302.562.622.7443.48%39.02%38.17%36.50%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 34.78%2.87momio equitativo
EV +0.180%
Ventaja +0.063%
Kelly +0.096%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.88

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
32.81%34.67%34.81%35.85%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.402.682.682.8841.67%37.38%37.31%34.72%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (34 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Unibet3.40I 29.41%NM 27.80%EV +1.32%E +0.388%K +0.550%G +0.007%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.38%EV -15.00%E -6.25%K -10.72%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.82%EV +0.180%E +0.063%K +0.096%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-21 00:20
Unibet (SE)3.40I 29.41%NM 27.80%EV +1.32%E +0.388%K +0.550%G +0.007%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.38%EV -15.00%E -6.25%K -10.72%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.82%EV +0.180%E +0.063%K +0.096%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-21 00:20
BetRivers3.35I 29.85%NM 27.91%EV -0.171%E -0.051%K -0.073%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.28%EV -15.71%E -6.60%K -11.39%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.81%EV -0.863%E -0.303%K -0.467%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-21 00:20
BetOnline.ag3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV -1.66%E -0.503%K -0.722%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 35.83%EV -5.80%E -2.18%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.30%EV -6.08%E -2.25%K -3.58%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-21 00:25
LowVig.ag3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV -1.66%E -0.503%K -0.722%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 35.83%EV -5.80%E -2.18%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.30%EV -6.08%E -2.25%K -3.58%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-21 00:25
Virgin Bet3.30I 30.30%NM 27.61%EV -1.66%E -0.503%K -0.722%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 39.27%EV -17.84%E -7.69%K -13.51%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.13%EV -4.34%E -1.58%K -2.48%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-21 00:40
LiveScore Bet3.30I 30.30%NM 27.61%EV -1.66%E -0.503%K -0.722%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 39.27%EV -17.84%E -7.69%K -13.51%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.13%EV -4.34%E -1.58%K -2.48%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-21 00:40
LeoVegas (SE)3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -3.15%E -0.969%K -1.40%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.31%EV -18.54%E -8.06%K -14.27%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.88%EV -4.34%E -1.58%K -2.48%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-21 00:40
Pinnacle3.24I 30.86%NM 29.87%EV -3.45%E -1.06%K -1.54%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 35.32%EV -2.96%E -1.08%K -1.70%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.81%EV -3.30%E -1.19%K -1.85%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-21 00:35
Ladbrokes (UK)3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -4.64%E -1.45%K -2.11%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.79%EV -4.38%E -1.62%K -2.58%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.85%EV -8.86%E -3.38%K -5.47%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-21 00:30
Fanatics3.20I 31.25%NM 29.28%EV -4.64%E -1.45%K -2.11%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.36%EV -6.15%E -2.32%K -3.73%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.36%EV -7.82%E -2.95%K -4.74%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-21 00:29
BetAnything3.20I 31.25%NM 29.28%EV -4.64%E -1.45%K -2.11%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.36%EV -6.15%E -2.32%K -3.73%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.36%EV -7.82%E -2.95%K -4.74%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-21 00:29
BetMGM3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -4.64%E -1.45%K -2.11%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.12%EV -6.15%E -2.32%K -3.73%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -9.56%E -3.68%K -5.97%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-21 00:29
Marathon Bet3.16I 31.65%NM 29.54%EV -5.83%E -1.85%K -2.70%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.23%EV -6.15%E -2.32%K -3.73%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.23%EV -7.82%E -2.95%K -4.74%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-21 00:40
DraftKings3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%EV -6.13%E -1.95%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.00%EV -4.38%E -1.62%K -2.58%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.00%EV -6.08%E -2.25%K -3.58%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-21 00:40
NordicBet3.10I 32.26%NM 30.18%EV -7.62%E -2.46%K -3.63%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 34.91%EV -5.09%E -1.90%K -3.03%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 34.91%EV -6.78%E -2.53%K -4.03%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-21 00:40
Betsson3.10I 32.26%NM 30.18%EV -7.62%E -2.46%K -3.63%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 34.91%EV -5.09%E -1.90%K -3.03%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 34.91%EV -6.78%E -2.53%K -4.03%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-21 00:40
FanDuel3.10I 32.26%NM 30.14%EV -7.62%E -2.46%K -3.63%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.60%EV -4.38%E -1.62%K -2.58%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.26%EV -7.82%E -2.95%K -4.74%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-21 00:39
Bovada3.10I 32.26%NM 30.14%EV -7.62%E -2.46%K -3.63%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.60%EV -4.38%E -1.62%K -2.58%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.26%EV -7.82%E -2.95%K -4.74%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-21 00:39
Everygame3.10I 32.26%NM 30.14%EV -7.62%E -2.46%K -3.63%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.26%EV -6.15%E -2.32%K -3.73%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.60%EV -6.08%E -2.25%K -3.58%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-21 00:20
SportsBet3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -7.62%E -2.46%K -3.63%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.46%EV -4.38%E -1.62%K -2.58%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.52%EV -8.86%E -3.38%K -5.47%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-21 00:39
theScore Bet3.10I 32.26%NM 29.94%EV -7.62%E -2.46%K -3.63%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.69%EV -7.92%E -3.05%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.37%EV -6.08%E -2.25%K -3.58%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-21 00:35
betfred_uk3.10I 32.26%NM 29.70%EV -7.62%E -2.46%K -3.63%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.83%EV -11.46%E -4.58%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.48%EV -4.34%E -1.58%K -2.48%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-20 23:59
Bet Right3.10I 32.26%NM 29.51%EV -7.62%E -2.46%K -3.63%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.60%EV -11.46%E -4.58%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.89%EV -6.08%E -2.25%K -3.58%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-21 00:39
Betr (AU)3.05I 32.79%NM 29.67%EV -9.11%E -2.99%K -4.44%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.19%EV -11.46%E -4.58%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.14%EV -7.82%E -2.95%K -4.74%G +0.000%10.5%2026-04-21 00:25
Betclic (FR)3.02I 33.11%NM 29.59%EV -10.00%E -3.31%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.04%EV -12.17%E -4.91%K -8.22%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.37%EV -9.56%E -3.68%K -5.97%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-21 00:34
Betway3.00I 33.33%NM 30.71%EV -10.60%E -3.53%K -5.30%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.17%EV -7.21%E -2.75%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.12%EV -6.08%E -2.25%K -3.58%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-21 00:20
Winamax (DE)3.00I 33.33%NM 30.42%EV -10.60%E -3.53%K -5.30%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.79%EV -9.69%E -3.80%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.80%EV -6.08%E -2.25%K -3.58%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-21 00:35
BoyleSports3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -10.60%E -3.53%K -5.30%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -7.21%E -2.75%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -8.86%E -3.38%K -5.47%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-21 00:19
Paddy Power3.00I 33.33%NM 30.31%EV -10.60%E -3.53%K -5.30%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.71%EV -7.21%E -2.75%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.98%EV -9.56%E -3.68%K -5.97%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-21 00:40
Sky Bet3.00I 33.33%NM 29.82%EV -10.60%E -3.53%K -5.30%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.40%EV -7.92%E -3.05%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.78%EV -13.04%E -5.22%K -8.69%G +0.000%11.8%2026-04-21 00:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)3.00I 33.33%NM 28.57%EV -10.60%E -3.53%K -5.30%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 35.71%EV -15.00%E -6.25%K -10.72%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 35.71%EV -16.52%E -6.88%K -11.80%G +0.000%16.7%2026-04-21 00:40
NetBet (FR)2.95I 33.90%NM 29.53%EV -12.09%E -4.10%K -6.20%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.30%EV -15.00%E -6.25%K -10.72%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.17%EV -11.30%E -4.43%K -7.29%G +0.000%14.8%2026-04-21 00:25
Winamax (FR)2.90I 34.48%NM 30.31%EV -13.58%E -4.68%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 35.88%EV -13.23%E -5.40%K -9.13%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.81%EV -9.56%E -3.68%K -5.97%G +0.000%13.8%2026-04-21 00:34
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.35I 29.85%NM 29.77%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.87%2.82I 35.46%NM 35.36%0.3%2026-04-21 00:40
Matchbook3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.71%2.82I 35.46%NM 35.20%0.7%2026-04-21 00:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.71%2.82I 35.46%NM 35.20%0.7%2026-04-21 00:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.71%2.82I 35.46%NM 35.20%0.7%2026-04-21 00:40
Smarkets3.25I 30.77%NM 30.26%2.84I 35.21%NM 34.62%2.80I 35.71%NM 35.12%1.7%2026-04-21 00:40