The School of Odds
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Gimnasia Mendoza v Independiente

Kickoff: 2026-02-25 01:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

31 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gimnasia Mendoza (Local)

Prediction 24.75%4.04fair odd
EV +0.227%
Edge +0.056%
Kelly +0.074%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.90%24.85%24.76%26.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.693.704.0529.41%27.14%27.03%24.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Independiente (Visit)

Prediction 41.96%2.38fair odd
EV -3.49%
Edge -1.52%
Kelly -2.69%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.81%41.91%42.04%43.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.212.232.3050.00%45.30%44.84%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 33.29%3.00fair odd
EV -1.78%
Edge -0.605%
Kelly -0.915%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.97%33.24%33.19%33.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.452.792.802.9540.82%35.85%35.71%33.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Gimnasia Mendoza (Local): 24.75%; Independiente (Visit): 41.96%; Draw: 33.29%. For Gimnasia Mendoza (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.04. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.05, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.227%.

Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯4.05I 24.69%NM 23.91%EV +0.227%E +0.056%K +0.074%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.11%EV -3.49%E -1.52%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.98%EV -5.11%E -1.79%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.3%2026-02-25 00:40
FanDuel🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.24%EV -3.49%E -0.894%K -1.20%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -5.59%E -2.49%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.76%EV -6.78%E -2.42%K -3.77%G +0.000%5.8%2026-02-25 00:49
Betsson🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.18%EV -3.49%E -0.894%K -1.20%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.91%EV -5.59%E -2.49%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.92%EV -7.44%E -2.68%K -4.18%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-25 00:44
NordicBet🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.06%EV -3.49%E -0.894%K -1.20%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.66%EV -7.69%E -3.50%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.28%EV -6.11%E -2.17%K -3.36%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-25 00:50
LowVig.ag🎯3.86I 25.91%NM 24.66%EV -4.48%E -1.16%K -1.56%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.30%EV -5.59%E -2.49%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.05%EV -4.12%E -1.43%K -2.19%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-24 23:19
BetOnline.ag🎯3.86I 25.91%NM 24.66%EV -4.48%E -1.16%K -1.56%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.30%EV -5.59%E -2.49%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.05%EV -4.12%E -1.43%K -2.19%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-24 23:19
BetAnything🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.47%EV -4.72%E -1.23%K -1.66%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -5.59%E -2.49%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -6.78%E -2.42%K -3.77%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-25 00:49
Marathon Bet🎯3.82I 26.18%NM 24.41%EV -5.47%E -1.43%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.81%EV -6.43%E -2.88%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.76I 36.23%NM 33.78%EV -8.11%E -2.94%K -4.61%G +0.000%7.3%2026-02-25 00:49
Fanatics🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 25.09%EV -5.96%E -1.57%K -2.13%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.45%EV -3.49%E -1.52%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.45%EV -5.11%E -1.79%K -2.76%G +0.000%4.9%2026-02-25 00:35
DraftKings🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.86%EV -5.96%E -1.57%K -2.13%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.99%EV -5.59%E -2.49%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.15%EV -5.11%E -1.79%K -2.76%G +0.000%5.8%2026-02-24 23:29
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%EV -5.96%E -1.57%K -2.13%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.74%EV -5.59%E -2.49%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.54%EV -6.78%E -2.42%K -3.77%G +0.000%6.5%2026-02-25 00:30
SportsBet🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.34%EV -5.96%E -1.57%K -2.13%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.04%EV -7.69%E -3.50%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.63%EV -8.44%E -3.07%K -4.82%G +0.000%8.1%2026-02-25 00:19
Unibet (UK)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.11%EV -7.20%E -1.92%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.85%EV -5.59%E -2.49%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%EV -5.11%E -1.79%K -2.76%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-24 23:35
BetMGM🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.73%EV -7.20%E -1.92%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.15%EV -7.69%E -3.50%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.12%EV -6.78%E -2.42%K -3.77%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-25 00:44
BoyleSports🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.58%EV -7.20%E -1.92%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.90%EV -7.69%E -3.50%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.52%EV -8.44%E -3.07%K -4.82%G +0.000%8.5%2026-02-24 23:14
Paddy Power🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.44%EV -8.43%E -2.28%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.06%EV -9.79%E -4.55%K -8.51%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.49%EV -10.11%E -3.74%K -5.95%G +0.000%10.6%2026-02-25 00:49
Bet Right🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.09%EV -9.67%E -2.65%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.62%EV -7.69%E -3.50%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.30%EV -8.44%E -3.07%K -4.82%G +0.000%9.2%2026-02-25 00:29
Unibet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -10.91%E -3.03%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.56%EV -4.33%E -1.90%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.12%EV -1.78%E -0.605%K -0.915%G +0.000%5.5%2026-02-25 00:45
Unibet (SE)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -10.91%E -3.03%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.56%EV -4.33%E -1.90%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.12%EV -1.78%E -0.605%K -0.915%G +0.000%5.5%2026-02-25 00:45
Betr (AU)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.19%EV -10.91%E -3.03%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.22%EV -7.69%E -3.50%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.59%EV -10.11%E -3.74%K -5.95%G +0.000%10.3%2026-02-25 00:29
Sky Bet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.73%EV -10.91%E -3.03%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.41%EV -9.79%E -4.55%K -8.51%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.85%EV -12.44%E -4.73%K -7.63%G +0.000%12.3%2026-02-24 22:49
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 23.90%EV -10.91%E -3.03%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 43.01%EV -16.08%E -8.04%K -16.08%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.09%EV -13.44%E -5.17%K -8.40%G +0.000%16.2%2026-02-25 00:17
BetRivers🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.45%EV -12.15%E -3.42%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.18%EV -4.33%E -1.90%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -3.45%E -1.19%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.5%2026-02-25 00:45
Winamax (DE)🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.66%EV -12.15%E -3.42%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.37%EV -9.79%E -4.55%K -8.51%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.97%EV -5.11%E -1.79%K -2.76%G +0.000%9.8%2026-02-24 23:34
Bovada🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -13.38%E -3.82%K -5.35%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.81%EV -3.49%E -1.52%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -3.45%E -1.19%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.5%2026-02-25 00:49
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.52%EV -13.38%E -3.82%K -5.35%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.25%EV -5.59%E -2.49%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.23%EV -4.12%E -1.43%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.7%2026-02-25 00:44
NetBet (FR)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 24.93%EV -13.38%E -3.82%K -5.35%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 42.15%EV -13.14%E -6.35%K -12.28%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 32.92%EV -11.77%E -4.44%K -7.13%G +0.000%14.6%2026-02-24 23:30
Virgin Bet🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.31%EV -14.62%E -4.24%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.26%EV -7.69%E -3.50%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.42%EV -6.78%E -2.42%K -3.77%G +0.000%10.2%2026-02-25 00:45
LiveScore Bet🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.31%EV -14.62%E -4.24%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.26%EV -7.69%E -3.50%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.42%EV -6.78%E -2.42%K -3.77%G +0.000%10.2%2026-02-25 00:45
Winamax (FR)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 25.94%EV -15.86%E -4.66%K -6.61%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 41.99%EV -11.89%E -5.66%K -10.80%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.07%EV -8.44%E -3.07%K -4.82%G +0.000%13.4%2026-02-24 23:34
PMU (FR)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 24.46%EV -15.86%E -4.66%K -6.61%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 41.59%EV -16.08%E -8.04%K -16.08%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 33.95%EV -18.43%E -7.52%K -12.71%G +0.000%20.2%2026-02-25 00:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎4.20I 23.81%NM 23.64%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.81%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.55%0.7%2026-02-25 00:49
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎4.20I 23.81%NM 23.64%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.81%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.55%0.7%2026-02-25 00:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎4.20I 23.81%NM 23.64%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.81%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.55%0.7%2026-02-25 00:50
Matchbook◎4.20I 23.81%NM 23.64%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.81%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.55%0.7%2026-02-25 00:50
Smarkets◎4.10I 24.39%NM 23.94%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.68%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.39%1.9%2026-02-25 00:49