The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Estudiantes v Gimnasia La Plata

2026-08-15 19:45 UTC — Primera División - Argentina

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Estudiantes (Local)

Prediction 45.54%2.20fair odd
EV -3.91%
Edge -1.85%
Kelly -3.52%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.11

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.37%45.54%45.54%45.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.042.052.1151.28%49.02%48.78%47.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Gimnasia La Plata (Visit)

Prediction 23.34%4.28fair odd
EV -6.64%
Edge -1.66%
Kelly -2.21%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.34%23.34%23.34%24.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.883.984.0028.57%25.81%25.16%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 31.12%3.21fair odd
EV -5.09%
Edge -1.67%
Kelly -2.48%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.90%31.12%31.12%31.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.802.963.003.0535.71%33.73%33.33%32.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Estudiantes (Local): 45.54%; Gimnasia La Plata (Visit): 23.34%; Draw: 31.12%. For Estudiantes (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.20. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.11, with an expected value of -3.91%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet2.11I 47.39%NM 45.01%EV -3.91%E -1.85%K -3.52%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.74%EV -6.64%E -1.66%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 31.24%EV -5.40%E -1.78%K -2.65%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-02 19:09
SportsBet2.08I 48.08%NM 45.41%EV -5.28%E -2.54%K -4.88%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.62%EV -6.64%E -1.66%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.97%EV -5.09%E -1.67%K -2.48%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-02 19:05
FanDuel2.05I 48.78%NM 45.54%EV -6.64%E -3.24%K -6.33%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -6.64%E -1.66%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -6.64%E -2.21%K -3.32%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-02 19:05
Bovada2.05I 48.78%NM 45.41%EV -6.64%E -3.24%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.57%EV -7.81%E -1.98%K -2.65%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -6.64%E -2.21%K -3.32%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-03 02:53
Paddy Power2.00I 50.00%NM 45.13%EV -8.92%E -4.46%K -8.92%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.75%EV -11.31%E -2.98%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.12%EV -9.75%E -3.36%K -5.13%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-02 19:04
Sky Bet1.95I 51.28%NM 44.37%EV -11.20%E -5.74%K -11.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.72%EV -18.31%E -5.23%K -7.32%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.90%EV -12.87%E -4.59%K -7.15%G +0.000%15.6%2026-08-02 19:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-08-02 19:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-08-02 19:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-08-02 19:55