Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Estudiantes v Gimnasia La Plata

Início: 2026-08-15 19:45 UTC

Final: Estudiantes 4–0 Gimnasia La Plata

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

38 casas de apostas (17 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Estudiantes (Local)

Previsão 47.18%2.12odd justa
EV -3.29%
Vantagem -1.60%
Kelly -3.13%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.05

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
45.30%47.09%47.16%49.22%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.851.971.962.0554.05%50.78%50.89%48.78%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Gimnasia La Plata (Visitante)

Previsão 21.34%4.69odd justa
EV +4.57%
Vantagem +0.933%
Kelly +1.17%
Crescimento +0.054%

pressupondo odds máximas de 4.90

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
19.28%21.39%21.42%23.59%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.754.304.284.9026.67%23.26%23.39%20.41%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 31.48%3.18odd justa
EV -3.98%
Vantagem -1.30%
Kelly -1.94%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.05

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
30.44%31.51%31.43%33.09%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.702.932.953.0537.04%34.11%33.90%32.79%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Estudiantes (Local): 47.18%; Gimnasia La Plata (Visitante): 21.34%; Empate: 31.48%. Para Gimnasia La Plata (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 4.69. 6 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 4.90, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +4.57%.

Odds das casas de apostas (38 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargemAtualização
NordicBet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.22%EV -9.42%E -4.91%K -10.24%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.28%EV +4.57%E +0.933%K +1.17%G +0.054%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.50%EV -5.55%E -1.85%K -2.78%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-15 19:29
Betsson🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.22%EV -9.42%E -4.91%K -10.24%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.28%EV +4.57%E +0.933%K +1.17%G +0.054%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.50%EV -5.55%E -1.85%K -2.78%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-15 19:29
Pinnacle🎯2.01I 49.75%NM 48.04%EV -5.18%E -2.58%K -5.13%G +0.000%4.83I 20.70%NM 19.99%EV +3.08%E +0.637%K +0.804%G +0.025%3.02I 33.11%NM 31.97%EV -4.92%E -1.63%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-15 19:30
1xBet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 48.49%EV -6.59%E -3.33%K -6.73%G +0.000%4.82I 20.75%NM 19.92%EV +2.87%E +0.595%K +0.750%G +0.021%3.04I 32.89%NM 31.59%EV -4.29%E -1.41%K -2.10%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-15 19:39
LowVig.ag🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 47.61%EV -4.23%E -2.09%K -4.11%G +0.000%4.79I 20.88%NM 20.18%EV +2.23%E +0.465%K +0.587%G +0.013%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.22%EV -5.55%E -1.85%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-15 19:39
BetOnline.ag🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 47.61%EV -4.23%E -2.09%K -4.11%G +0.000%4.79I 20.88%NM 20.18%EV +2.23%E +0.465%K +0.587%G +0.013%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.22%EV -5.55%E -1.85%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-15 19:39
FanDuel🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.80%EV -5.65%E -2.82%K -5.65%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.35%EV -1.83%E -0.398%K -0.508%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.85%EV -10.27%E -3.60%K -5.55%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-15 19:24
PlayUp🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.13%EV -11.31%E -6.02%K -12.85%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.08%EV -1.83%E -0.398%K -0.508%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.79%EV -5.55%E -1.85%K -2.78%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-15 19:34
Fanatics🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.65%E -2.82%K -5.65%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -3.96%E -0.881%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.58%EV -5.55%E -1.85%K -2.78%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-15 19:39
Marathon Bet🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.34%EV -7.06%E -3.59%K -7.28%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.72%EV -3.96%E -0.881%K -1.13%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.94%EV -8.07%E -2.76%K -4.20%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-15 19:39
SportsBet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.59%EV -5.65%E -2.82%K -5.65%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.71%EV -3.96%E -0.881%K -1.13%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.70%EV -10.27%E -3.60%K -5.55%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-15 19:24
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.32%EV -5.65%E -2.82%K -5.65%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.59%EV -3.96%E -0.881%K -1.13%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.09%EV -11.85%E -4.23%K -6.58%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-15 19:24
DraftKings🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.14%EV -5.65%E -2.82%K -5.65%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -6.10%E -1.39%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.43%EV -5.55%E -1.85%K -2.78%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-15 19:29
Bovada🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.52%EV -8.01%E -4.11%K -8.43%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.06%EV -6.10%E -1.39%K -1.79%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.41%EV -7.13%E -2.42%K -3.65%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-15 19:38
BetAnything🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.52%EV -8.01%E -4.11%K -8.43%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.06%EV -6.10%E -1.39%K -1.79%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.41%EV -7.13%E -2.42%K -3.65%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-15 19:39
Betway🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.61%EV -8.01%E -4.11%K -8.43%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.44%EV -7.59%E -1.75%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.95%EV -5.55%E -1.85%K -2.78%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-15 19:39
Paddy Power🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.31%EV -8.01%E -4.11%K -8.43%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.85%EV -7.59%E -1.75%K -2.28%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.84%EV -13.42%E -4.88%K -7.67%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-15 19:24
Codere (IT)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.66%EV -4.71%E -2.33%K -4.61%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.92%EV -8.23%E -1.91%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.42%EV -5.55%E -1.85%K -2.78%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-15 19:35
Betclic (FR)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 47.18%EV -10.84%E -5.73%K -12.18%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.74%EV -8.23%E -1.91%K -2.49%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 32.08%EV -12.48%E -4.49%K -7.01%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-15 19:38
Unibet (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.79%EV -5.65%E -2.82%K -5.65%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02%EV -9.30%E -2.19%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -5.55%E -1.85%K -2.78%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-15 19:35
betfred_uk🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -8.01%E -4.11%K -8.43%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.96%EV -10.37%E -2.47%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -5.55%E -1.85%K -2.78%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-15 19:39
Bet Right🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.55%EV -7.06%E -3.59%K -7.28%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.83%EV -10.37%E -2.47%K -3.24%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.62%EV -8.70%E -3.00%K -4.58%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-15 19:39
BoyleSports🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.81%EV -9.89%E -5.18%K -10.87%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -10.37%E -2.47%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.44%EV -5.55%E -1.85%K -2.78%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-15 19:34
Sky Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.74%EV -8.01%E -4.11%K -8.43%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.23%EV -10.37%E -2.47%K -3.24%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.03%EV -15.00%E -5.55%K -8.82%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-15 19:24
NetBet (FR)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.59%EV -12.72%E -6.88%K -14.97%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.96%EV -10.37%E -2.47%K -3.24%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.44%EV -11.85%E -4.23%K -6.58%G +0.000%13.6%2026-08-15 19:39
Unibet (FR)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 47.72%EV -11.78%E -6.30%K -13.54%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.50%EV -11.43%E -2.75%K -3.63%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.77%EV -8.70%E -3.00%K -4.58%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-15 19:34
theScore Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.17%EV -5.65%E -2.82%K -5.65%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.52%EV -12.50%E -3.05%K -4.03%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.30%EV -7.13%E -2.42%K -3.65%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-15 19:34
Betr (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.30%EV -8.01%E -4.11%K -8.43%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.02%EV -12.50%E -3.05%K -4.03%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.68%EV -10.27%E -3.60%K -5.55%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-15 19:39
Unibet (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -3.29%E -1.60%K -3.13%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -14.63%E -3.66%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.77%EV -3.98%E -1.30%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-15 19:29
Unibet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -3.29%E -1.60%K -3.13%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -14.63%E -3.66%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.77%EV -3.98%E -1.30%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-15 19:29
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.54%EV -3.29%E -1.60%K -3.13%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -14.63%E -3.66%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -5.55%E -1.85%K -2.78%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-15 19:29
BetMGM🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.30%EV -3.29%E -1.60%K -3.13%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.22%EV -14.63%E -3.66%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.48%EV -7.13%E -2.42%K -3.65%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-15 19:29
Winamax (DE)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 46.66%EV -7.54%E -3.84%K -7.85%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -14.63%E -3.66%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.48%EV -5.55%E -1.85%K -2.78%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-15 19:34
BetRivers🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.53%EV -4.71%E -2.33%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.29%EV -15.70%E -3.98%K -5.32%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.18%EV -7.13%E -2.42%K -3.65%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-15 19:29
Winamax (FR)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 46.42%EV -9.42%E -4.91%K -10.24%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.85%EV -16.77%E -4.30%K -5.78%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.73%EV -8.70%E -3.00%K -4.58%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-15 19:35
LiveScore Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.37%EV -8.01%E -4.11%K -8.43%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.59%EV -19.97%E -5.33%K -7.26%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.04%EV -10.27%E -3.60%K -5.55%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-15 19:29
Virgin Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.37%EV -8.01%E -4.11%K -8.43%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.59%EV -19.97%E -5.33%K -7.26%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.04%EV -10.27%E -3.60%K -5.55%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-15 19:29
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 45.37%EV -8.95%E -4.64%K -9.62%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.35%EV -19.97%E -5.33%K -7.26%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.27%EV -11.85%E -4.23%K -6.58%G +0.000%14.2%2026-08-15 19:29
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (5)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Kalshi◎2.13I 46.95%NM 46.50%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.81%3.03I 33.00%NM 32.69%1.0%2026-08-15 19:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.06I 48.54%NM 47.91%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.74%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.36%1.3%2026-08-15 19:39
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.06I 48.54%NM 47.91%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.74%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.36%1.3%2026-08-15 19:39
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.06I 48.54%NM 47.91%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.74%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.36%1.3%2026-08-15 19:39
Smarkets◎2.06I 48.54%NM 47.71%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.06%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.23%1.7%2026-08-15 19:39