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Estudiantes v Gimnasia La Plata
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Estudiantes (Local)
Predicción 47.18%2.12momio equitativo
EV -3.29%
Ventaja -1.60%
Kelly -3.13%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.05
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
45.30%47.09%47.16%49.22%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.851.971.962.0554.05%50.78%50.89%48.78%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Gimnasia La Plata (Visitante)
Predicción 21.34%4.69momio equitativo
EV +4.57%
Ventaja +0.933%
Kelly +1.17%
Crecimiento +0.054%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.90
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
19.28%21.39%21.42%23.59%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.754.304.284.9026.67%23.26%23.39%20.41%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Empate
Predicción 31.48%3.18momio equitativo
EV -3.98%
Ventaja -1.30%
Kelly -1.94%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.05
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
30.44%31.51%31.43%33.09%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.702.932.953.0537.04%34.11%33.90%32.79%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Estudiantes (Local): 47.18%; Gimnasia La Plata (Visitante): 21.34%; Empate: 31.48%. Para Gimnasia La Plata (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 4.69. 6 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 4.90, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +4.57%.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (38 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.22%EV -9.42%E -4.91%K -10.24%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.28%EV +4.57%E +0.933%K +1.17%G +0.054% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.50%EV -5.55%E -1.85%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-15 19:29 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.22%EV -9.42%E -4.91%K -10.24%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.28%EV +4.57%E +0.933%K +1.17%G +0.054% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.50%EV -5.55%E -1.85%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-15 19:29 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.01I 49.75%NM 48.04%EV -5.18%E -2.58%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 4.83I 20.70%NM 19.99%EV +3.08%E +0.637%K +0.804%G +0.025% | 3.02I 33.11%NM 31.97%EV -4.92%E -1.63%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-08-15 19:30 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.49%EV -6.59%E -3.33%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 4.82I 20.75%NM 19.92%EV +2.87%E +0.595%K +0.750%G +0.021% | 3.04I 32.89%NM 31.59%EV -4.29%E -1.41%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-15 19:39 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.03I 49.26%NM 47.61%EV -4.23%E -2.09%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 4.79I 20.88%NM 20.18%EV +2.23%E +0.465%K +0.587%G +0.013% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.22%EV -5.55%E -1.85%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-08-15 19:39 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.03I 49.26%NM 47.61%EV -4.23%E -2.09%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 4.79I 20.88%NM 20.18%EV +2.23%E +0.465%K +0.587%G +0.013% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.22%EV -5.55%E -1.85%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-08-15 19:39 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.80%EV -5.65%E -2.82%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.35%EV -1.83%E -0.398%K -0.508%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.85%EV -10.27%E -3.60%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-15 19:24 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.13%EV -11.31%E -6.02%K -12.85%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.08%EV -1.83%E -0.398%K -0.508%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.79%EV -5.55%E -1.85%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-15 19:34 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.65%E -2.82%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -3.96%E -0.881%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.58%EV -5.55%E -1.85%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-15 19:39 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.34%EV -7.06%E -3.59%K -7.28%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.72%EV -3.96%E -0.881%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 31.94%EV -8.07%E -2.76%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-15 19:39 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.59%EV -5.65%E -2.82%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.71%EV -3.96%E -0.881%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.70%EV -10.27%E -3.60%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-15 19:24 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.32%EV -5.65%E -2.82%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.59%EV -3.96%E -0.881%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.09%EV -11.85%E -4.23%K -6.58%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-15 19:24 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.14%EV -5.65%E -2.82%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -6.10%E -1.39%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.43%EV -5.55%E -1.85%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-15 19:29 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.52%EV -8.01%E -4.11%K -8.43%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.06%EV -6.10%E -1.39%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.41%EV -7.13%E -2.42%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-15 19:38 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.52%EV -8.01%E -4.11%K -8.43%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.06%EV -6.10%E -1.39%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.41%EV -7.13%E -2.42%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-15 19:39 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.61%EV -8.01%E -4.11%K -8.43%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.44%EV -7.59%E -1.75%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.95%EV -5.55%E -1.85%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-15 19:39 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.31%EV -8.01%E -4.11%K -8.43%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.85%EV -7.59%E -1.75%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.84%EV -13.42%E -4.88%K -7.67%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-08-15 19:24 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.66%EV -4.71%E -2.33%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.92%EV -8.23%E -1.91%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.42%EV -5.55%E -1.85%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-15 19:35 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 47.18%EV -10.84%E -5.73%K -12.18%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.74%EV -8.23%E -1.91%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 32.08%EV -12.48%E -4.49%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-08-15 19:38 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.79%EV -5.65%E -2.82%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02%EV -9.30%E -2.19%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -5.55%E -1.85%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-15 19:35 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -8.01%E -4.11%K -8.43%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.96%EV -10.37%E -2.47%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -5.55%E -1.85%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-15 19:39 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 46.55%EV -7.06%E -3.59%K -7.28%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.83%EV -10.37%E -2.47%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.62%EV -8.70%E -3.00%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-15 19:39 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.81%EV -9.89%E -5.18%K -10.87%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -10.37%E -2.47%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.44%EV -5.55%E -1.85%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-15 19:34 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.74%EV -8.01%E -4.11%K -8.43%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.23%EV -10.37%E -2.47%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.03%EV -15.00%E -5.55%K -8.82%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-08-15 19:24 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 47.59%EV -12.72%E -6.88%K -14.97%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.96%EV -10.37%E -2.47%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.44%EV -11.85%E -4.23%K -6.58%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-08-15 19:39 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 47.72%EV -11.78%E -6.30%K -13.54%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 21.50%EV -11.43%E -2.75%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.77%EV -8.70%E -3.00%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-08-15 19:34 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.17%EV -5.65%E -2.82%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.52%EV -12.50%E -3.05%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.30%EV -7.13%E -2.42%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-15 19:34 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.30%EV -8.01%E -4.11%K -8.43%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.02%EV -12.50%E -3.05%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.68%EV -10.27%E -3.60%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-08-15 19:39 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -3.29%E -1.60%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -14.63%E -3.66%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.77%EV -3.98%E -1.30%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-15 19:29 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -3.29%E -1.60%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -14.63%E -3.66%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.77%EV -3.98%E -1.30%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-15 19:29 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.54%EV -3.29%E -1.60%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -14.63%E -3.66%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -5.55%E -1.85%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-15 19:29 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.30%EV -3.29%E -1.60%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.22%EV -14.63%E -3.66%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.48%EV -7.13%E -2.42%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-15 19:29 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 46.66%EV -7.54%E -3.84%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -14.63%E -3.66%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.48%EV -5.55%E -1.85%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-08-15 19:34 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.53%EV -4.71%E -2.33%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.29%EV -15.70%E -3.98%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.18%EV -7.13%E -2.42%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-15 19:29 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 46.42%EV -9.42%E -4.91%K -10.24%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.85%EV -16.77%E -4.30%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.73%EV -8.70%E -3.00%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-08-15 19:35 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.37%EV -8.01%E -4.11%K -8.43%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.59%EV -19.97%E -5.33%K -7.26%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.04%EV -10.27%E -3.60%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-08-15 19:29 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.37%EV -8.01%E -4.11%K -8.43%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.59%EV -19.97%E -5.33%K -7.26%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.04%EV -10.27%E -3.60%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-08-15 19:29 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 45.37%EV -8.95%E -4.64%K -9.62%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.35%EV -19.97%E -5.33%K -7.26%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.27%EV -11.85%E -4.23%K -6.58%G +0.000% | 14.2% | 2026-08-15 19:29 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (5)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 2.13I 46.95%NM 46.50% | 4.76I 21.01%NM 20.81% | 3.03I 33.00%NM 32.69% | 1.0% | 2026-08-15 19:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.06I 48.54%NM 47.91% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.74% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.36% | 1.3% | 2026-08-15 19:39 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.06I 48.54%NM 47.91% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.74% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.36% | 1.3% | 2026-08-15 19:39 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.06I 48.54%NM 47.91% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.74% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.36% | 1.3% | 2026-08-15 19:39 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.06I 48.54%NM 47.71% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.06% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.23% | 1.7% | 2026-08-15 19:39 |