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Defensa y Justicia v Newells Old Boys
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Defensa y Justicia (Local)
Prediction 48.12%2.08fair odd
EV +8.27%
Edge +3.67%
Kelly +6.61%
Growth +0.547%
assuming max odds 2.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.16%47.91%48.11%50.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.781.951.952.2556.18%51.36%51.28%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Newells Old Boys (Visit)
Prediction 21.94%4.56fair odd
EV +4.86%
Edge +1.02%
Kelly +1.29%
Growth +0.063%
assuming max odds 4.78
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.07%22.18%21.92%26.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.504.124.104.7828.57%24.27%24.39%20.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 29.94%3.34fair odd
EV -1.19%
Edge -0.359%
Kelly -0.515%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.77%29.92%29.97%32.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.863.073.103.3034.97%32.56%32.26%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Defensa y Justicia (Local): 48.12%; Newells Old Boys (Visit): 21.94%; Draw: 29.94%. For Defensa y Justicia (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.08. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.27%.
Sportsbook Odds (36 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.16%EV +8.27%E +3.67%K +6.61%G +0.547% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -23.22%E -6.63%K -9.29%G +0.000% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 32.38%EV -14.36%E -5.02%K -7.72%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-07 12:30 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.76%EV +1.05%E +0.499%K +0.953%G +0.010% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.42%EV -15.54%E -4.04%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.82%EV -8.67%E -2.84%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-09 20:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.99%EV -1.84%E -0.901%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.75%EV -13.35%E -3.38%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.26%EV -7.17%E -2.31%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-09 20:10 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.99%EV -1.84%E -0.901%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.75%EV -13.35%E -3.38%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.26%EV -7.17%E -2.31%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-09 20:10 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.88%EV -3.76%E -1.88%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.87%EV -10.05%E -2.45%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.25%EV -7.17%E -2.31%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-09 20:00 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.62%EV -3.76%E -1.88%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -12.25%E -3.06%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -7.17%E -2.31%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-09 20:24 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.97%EV -3.76%E -1.88%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.88%EV -15.54%E -4.04%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.15%EV -8.67%E -2.84%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-09 20:10 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.23%EV -4.73%E -2.39%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 21.46%EV -2.38%E -0.534%K -0.689%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.31%EV -5.68%E -1.80%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-09 20:05 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.23%EV -4.73%E -2.39%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 21.46%EV -2.38%E -0.534%K -0.689%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.31%EV -5.68%E -1.80%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-09 20:05 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 46.87%EV -4.73%E -2.39%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.20%EV -12.25%E -3.06%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.93%EV -7.17%E -2.31%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-09 20:00 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 46.45%EV -4.73%E -2.39%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.89%EV -15.54%E -4.04%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.67%EV -7.17%E -2.31%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-09 20:00 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 49.03%EV -5.21%E -2.64%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 21.70%EV -2.38%E -0.534%K -0.689%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.27%EV -1.19%E -0.359%K -0.515%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-08-09 20:40 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 49.28%EV -5.69%E -2.90%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 4.58I 21.83%NM 21.09%EV +0.475%E +0.104%K +0.133%G +0.001% | 3.26I 30.67%NM 29.63%EV -2.38%E -0.731%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-08-09 20:34 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 49.28%EV -5.69%E -2.90%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 4.58I 21.83%NM 21.09%EV +0.475%E +0.104%K +0.133%G +0.001% | 3.26I 30.67%NM 29.63%EV -2.38%E -0.731%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-08-09 20:35 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.49%EV -6.17%E -3.16%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.49%EV -3.47%E -0.789%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.02%EV -5.68%E -1.80%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-09 20:25 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.86%EV -6.17%E -3.16%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -7.86%E -1.87%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 29.91%EV -6.58%E -2.11%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-09 20:40 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.77%EV -6.17%E -3.16%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.18%EV -7.86%E -1.87%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -7.17%E -2.31%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-09 20:25 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -6.17%E -3.16%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.96%EV -7.86%E -1.87%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -10.17%E -3.39%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-09 20:05 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.25%EV -6.17%E -3.16%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -12.25%E -3.06%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.72%EV -7.17%E -2.31%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-09 20:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.46%EV -6.17%E -3.16%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.84%EV -16.64%E -4.38%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.70%EV -8.67%E -2.84%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-08-09 20:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 45.59%EV -6.65%E -3.43%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.91%EV -18.83%E -5.09%K -6.97%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.50%EV -13.16%E -4.54%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-08-09 20:39 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 45.59%EV -6.65%E -3.43%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.91%EV -18.83%E -5.09%K -6.97%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.50%EV -13.16%E -4.54%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-08-09 20:39 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 45.61%EV -7.61%E -3.96%K -8.27%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 23.99%EV -19.93%E -5.46%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.40%EV -13.76%E -4.78%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 14.2% | 2026-08-09 20:40 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.23%EV -8.09%E -4.24%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 4.78I 20.92%NM 20.07%EV +4.86%E +1.02%K +1.29%G +0.063% | 3.23I 30.96%NM 29.70%EV -3.28%E -1.02%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-09 20:40 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.01%EV -8.09%E -4.24%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.80%EV -1.28%E -0.284%K -0.366%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.19%EV -7.17%E -2.31%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-09 19:59 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.96%EV -8.09%E -4.24%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.27%EV -7.86%E -1.87%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -2.68%E -0.825%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-09 20:40 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.78%EV -8.09%E -4.24%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.17%EV -3.47%E -0.789%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -7.17%E -2.31%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-09 20:00 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.81%EV -8.09%E -4.24%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -7.86%E -1.87%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.44%EV -10.17%E -3.39%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-09 20:04 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.43%EV -9.54%E -5.07%K -10.84%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.21%EV -10.05%E -2.45%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.37%EV -7.17%E -2.31%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-08-09 20:25 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 48.34%EV -10.02%E -5.36%K -11.52%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%EV -7.86%E -1.87%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.13%EV -10.17%E -3.39%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-08-09 20:00 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 48.34%EV -10.02%E -5.36%K -11.52%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%EV -7.86%E -1.87%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.13%EV -10.17%E -3.39%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-08-09 20:30 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 48.20%EV -10.50%E -5.65%K -12.21%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.41%EV -12.25%E -3.06%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.39%EV -8.67%E -2.84%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-08-09 20:25 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.21%EV -10.98%E -5.94%K -12.92%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.75%EV -10.05%E -2.45%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 2.97I 33.67%NM 30.03%EV -11.07%E -3.73%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-08-09 20:23 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 47.61%EV -10.98%E -5.94%K -12.92%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.02%EV -12.25%E -3.06%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.37%EV -13.16%E -4.54%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-08-09 20:00 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 48.62%EV -11.46%E -6.23%K -13.65%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 21.56%EV -8.96%E -2.16%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.82%EV -10.17%E -3.39%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-08-09 20:25 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 49.18%EV -14.35%E -8.06%K -18.40%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.35%EV -10.05%E -2.45%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 2.97I 33.67%NM 29.47%EV -11.07%E -3.73%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 14.2% | 2026-08-09 20:25 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 2.18I 45.87%NM 47.07% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 22.31% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 30.63% | -2.5% | 2026-08-09 20:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.99I 50.25%NM 49.79% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.64% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.57% | 0.9% | 2026-08-09 20:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.44% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.04% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.52% | 1.1% | 2026-08-09 20:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.44% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.04% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.52% | 1.1% | 2026-08-09 20:40 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.02% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 21.55% | 3.33I 30.03%NM 29.44% | 2.0% | 2026-08-09 20:20 |
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