Idioma:Español
Defensa y Justicia v Newells Old Boys
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Defensa y Justicia (Local)
Predicción 48.12%2.08momio equitativo
EV +8.27%
Ventaja +3.67%
Kelly +6.61%
Crecimiento +0.547%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.25
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
41.16%47.91%48.11%50.23%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.781.951.952.2556.18%51.36%51.28%44.44%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Newells Old Boys (Visitante)
Predicción 21.94%4.56momio equitativo
EV +4.86%
Ventaja +1.02%
Kelly +1.29%
Crecimiento +0.063%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.78
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
20.07%22.18%21.92%26.46%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.504.124.104.7828.57%24.27%24.39%20.92%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Empate
Predicción 29.94%3.34momio equitativo
EV -1.19%
Ventaja -0.359%
Kelly -0.515%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.30
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.77%29.92%29.97%32.38%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.863.073.103.3034.97%32.56%32.26%30.30%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Defensa y Justicia (Local): 48.12%; Newells Old Boys (Visitante): 21.94%; Empate: 29.94%. Para Defensa y Justicia (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.08. 2 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 2.25, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +8.27%.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (36 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local ▼ | Visitante | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.16%EV +8.27%E +3.67%K +6.61%G +0.547% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -23.22%E -6.63%K -9.29%G +0.000% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 32.38%EV -14.36%E -5.02%K -7.72%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-07 12:30 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.76%EV +1.05%E +0.499%K +0.953%G +0.010% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.42%EV -15.54%E -4.04%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.82%EV -8.67%E -2.84%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-09 20:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.99%EV -1.84%E -0.901%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.75%EV -13.35%E -3.38%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.26%EV -7.17%E -2.31%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-09 20:10 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.99%EV -1.84%E -0.901%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.75%EV -13.35%E -3.38%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.26%EV -7.17%E -2.31%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-09 20:10 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.88%EV -3.76%E -1.88%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.87%EV -10.05%E -2.45%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.25%EV -7.17%E -2.31%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-09 20:00 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.62%EV -3.76%E -1.88%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -12.25%E -3.06%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -7.17%E -2.31%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-09 20:24 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.97%EV -3.76%E -1.88%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.88%EV -15.54%E -4.04%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.15%EV -8.67%E -2.84%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-09 20:10 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.23%EV -4.73%E -2.39%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 21.46%EV -2.38%E -0.534%K -0.689%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.31%EV -5.68%E -1.80%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-09 20:05 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.23%EV -4.73%E -2.39%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 21.46%EV -2.38%E -0.534%K -0.689%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.31%EV -5.68%E -1.80%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-09 20:05 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 46.87%EV -4.73%E -2.39%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.20%EV -12.25%E -3.06%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.93%EV -7.17%E -2.31%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-09 20:00 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 46.45%EV -4.73%E -2.39%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.89%EV -15.54%E -4.04%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.67%EV -7.17%E -2.31%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-09 20:00 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 49.03%EV -5.21%E -2.64%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 21.70%EV -2.38%E -0.534%K -0.689%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.27%EV -1.19%E -0.359%K -0.515%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-08-09 20:40 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 49.28%EV -5.69%E -2.90%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 4.58I 21.83%NM 21.09%EV +0.475%E +0.104%K +0.133%G +0.001% | 3.26I 30.67%NM 29.63%EV -2.38%E -0.731%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-08-09 20:34 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 49.28%EV -5.69%E -2.90%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 4.58I 21.83%NM 21.09%EV +0.475%E +0.104%K +0.133%G +0.001% | 3.26I 30.67%NM 29.63%EV -2.38%E -0.731%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-08-09 20:35 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.49%EV -6.17%E -3.16%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.49%EV -3.47%E -0.789%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.02%EV -5.68%E -1.80%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-09 20:25 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.86%EV -6.17%E -3.16%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -7.86%E -1.87%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 29.91%EV -6.58%E -2.11%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-09 20:40 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.77%EV -6.17%E -3.16%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.18%EV -7.86%E -1.87%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -7.17%E -2.31%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-09 20:25 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -6.17%E -3.16%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.96%EV -7.86%E -1.87%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -10.17%E -3.39%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-09 20:05 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.25%EV -6.17%E -3.16%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -12.25%E -3.06%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.72%EV -7.17%E -2.31%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-09 20:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.46%EV -6.17%E -3.16%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.84%EV -16.64%E -4.38%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.70%EV -8.67%E -2.84%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-08-09 20:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 45.59%EV -6.65%E -3.43%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.91%EV -18.83%E -5.09%K -6.97%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.50%EV -13.16%E -4.54%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-08-09 20:39 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 45.59%EV -6.65%E -3.43%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.91%EV -18.83%E -5.09%K -6.97%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.50%EV -13.16%E -4.54%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-08-09 20:39 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 45.61%EV -7.61%E -3.96%K -8.27%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 23.99%EV -19.93%E -5.46%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.40%EV -13.76%E -4.78%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 14.2% | 2026-08-09 20:40 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.23%EV -8.09%E -4.24%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 4.78I 20.92%NM 20.07%EV +4.86%E +1.02%K +1.29%G +0.063% | 3.23I 30.96%NM 29.70%EV -3.28%E -1.02%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-09 20:40 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.01%EV -8.09%E -4.24%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.80%EV -1.28%E -0.284%K -0.366%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.19%EV -7.17%E -2.31%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-09 19:59 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.96%EV -8.09%E -4.24%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.27%EV -7.86%E -1.87%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -2.68%E -0.825%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-09 20:40 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.78%EV -8.09%E -4.24%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.17%EV -3.47%E -0.789%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -7.17%E -2.31%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-09 20:00 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.81%EV -8.09%E -4.24%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -7.86%E -1.87%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.44%EV -10.17%E -3.39%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-09 20:04 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.43%EV -9.54%E -5.07%K -10.84%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.21%EV -10.05%E -2.45%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.37%EV -7.17%E -2.31%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-08-09 20:25 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 48.34%EV -10.02%E -5.36%K -11.52%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%EV -7.86%E -1.87%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.13%EV -10.17%E -3.39%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-08-09 20:00 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 48.34%EV -10.02%E -5.36%K -11.52%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%EV -7.86%E -1.87%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.13%EV -10.17%E -3.39%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-08-09 20:30 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 48.20%EV -10.50%E -5.65%K -12.21%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.41%EV -12.25%E -3.06%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.39%EV -8.67%E -2.84%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-08-09 20:25 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.21%EV -10.98%E -5.94%K -12.92%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.75%EV -10.05%E -2.45%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 2.97I 33.67%NM 30.03%EV -11.07%E -3.73%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-08-09 20:23 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 47.61%EV -10.98%E -5.94%K -12.92%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.02%EV -12.25%E -3.06%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.37%EV -13.16%E -4.54%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-08-09 20:00 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 48.62%EV -11.46%E -6.23%K -13.65%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 21.56%EV -8.96%E -2.16%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.82%EV -10.17%E -3.39%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-08-09 20:25 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 49.18%EV -14.35%E -8.06%K -18.40%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.35%EV -10.05%E -2.45%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 2.97I 33.67%NM 29.47%EV -11.07%E -3.73%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 14.2% | 2026-08-09 20:25 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (5)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 2.18I 45.87%NM 47.07% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 22.31% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 30.63% | -2.5% | 2026-08-09 20:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.99I 50.25%NM 49.79% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.64% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.57% | 0.9% | 2026-08-09 20:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.44% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.04% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.52% | 1.1% | 2026-08-09 20:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.44% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.04% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.52% | 1.1% | 2026-08-09 20:40 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.02% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 21.55% | 3.33I 30.03%NM 29.44% | 2.0% | 2026-08-09 20:20 |