The School of Odds
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Defensa y Justicia v Lanus

Kickoff: 2026-03-02 00:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

34 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Defensa y Justicia (Local)

Prediction 43.47%2.30fair odd
EV -2.20%
Edge -0.979%
Kelly -1.76%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.93%43.36%43.64%44.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.902.142.152.2552.63%46.82%46.51%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Lanus (Visit)

Prediction 25.63%3.90fair odd
EV -1.07%
Edge -0.276%
Kelly -0.373%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.86

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.19%25.73%25.49%27.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.553.553.8630.77%28.13%28.17%25.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.90%3.24fair odd
EV -2.65%
Edge -0.842%
Kelly -1.23%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.77%30.92%30.87%32.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.973.003.1538.46%33.63%33.33%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Defensa y Justicia (Local): 43.47%; Lanus (Visit): 25.63%; Draw: 30.90%. For Lanus (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.90. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.86, with an expected value of -1.07%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (34 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.09%EV -2.20%E -0.979%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -12.86%E -3.78%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.06%EV -2.65%E -0.842%K -1.23%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-02 00:14
Unibet (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.09%EV -2.20%E -0.979%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -12.86%E -3.78%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.06%EV -2.65%E -0.842%K -1.23%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-02 00:14
BetRivers🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.93%EV -3.07%E -1.38%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.91%EV -14.14%E -4.22%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.16%EV -4.20%E -1.35%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-02 00:14
Pinnacle🎯2.21I 45.25%NM 43.71%EV -3.94%E -1.78%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.86I 25.91%NM 25.03%EV -1.07%E -0.276%K -0.373%G +0.000%3.09I 32.36%NM 31.26%EV -4.51%E -1.46%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-02 00:14
Fanatics🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.09%EV -4.38%E -1.99%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.33%EV -7.73%E -2.15%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.58%EV -4.20%E -1.35%K -2.00%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-01 23:59
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -4.38%E -1.99%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -7.73%E -2.15%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -7.29%E -2.43%K -3.64%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-02 00:14
Bovada🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.50%EV -4.38%E -1.99%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.34%EV -9.01%E -2.54%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.17%EV -7.29%E -2.43%K -3.64%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-02 00:13
BetAnything🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.50%EV -4.38%E -1.99%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.34%EV -9.01%E -2.54%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.17%EV -7.29%E -2.43%K -3.64%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-02 00:14
BetMGM🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -4.38%E -1.99%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -10.29%E -2.94%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -7.29%E -2.43%K -3.64%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-02 00:14
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -4.38%E -1.99%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.75%EV -14.14%E -4.22%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.99%EV -4.20%E -1.35%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-02 00:14
BetOnline.ag🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.75%EV -5.25%E -2.41%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.77%EV -1.32%E -0.343%K -0.464%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 31.48%EV -6.36%E -2.10%K -3.13%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-02 00:00
LowVig.ag🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.75%EV -5.25%E -2.41%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.77%EV -1.32%E -0.343%K -0.464%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 31.48%EV -6.36%E -2.10%K -3.13%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-01 23:59
1xBet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.17%EV -5.68%E -2.62%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.69I 27.10%NM 25.39%EV -5.42%E -1.47%K -2.02%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.44%EV -7.91%E -2.65%K -3.99%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-02 00:14
Marathon Bet🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.15%EV -6.11%E -2.83%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 25.47%EV -6.19%E -1.69%K -2.33%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 31.38%EV -8.22%E -2.77%K -4.17%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-02 00:14
Virgin Bet🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 41.94%EV -6.11%E -2.83%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.87%EV -16.70%E -5.14%K -7.42%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.19%EV -7.29%E -2.43%K -3.64%G +0.000%10.4%2026-03-02 00:14
LiveScore Bet🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 41.94%EV -6.11%E -2.83%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.87%EV -16.70%E -5.14%K -7.42%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.19%EV -7.29%E -2.43%K -3.64%G +0.000%10.4%2026-03-02 00:14
DraftKings🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.74%EV -6.55%E -3.05%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -5.17%E -1.40%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.84%EV -5.74%E -1.88%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-02 00:14
NordicBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -6.55%E -3.05%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.68%EV -6.45%E -1.77%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.73%EV -5.74%E -1.88%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-02 00:04
Betsson🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -6.55%E -3.05%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.68%EV -6.45%E -1.77%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.73%EV -5.74%E -1.88%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-02 00:14
FanDuel🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.58%EV -6.55%E -3.05%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.66%EV -2.60%E -0.685%K -0.930%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.76%EV -8.83%E -2.99%K -4.53%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-02 00:14
Everygame🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.37%EV -6.55%E -3.05%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.55%EV -6.45%E -1.77%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -7.29%E -2.43%K -3.64%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-02 00:14
Betway🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.90%EV -6.55%E -3.05%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -10.29%E -2.94%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -7.29%E -2.43%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-02 00:14
Bet Right🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.84%EV -6.55%E -3.05%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.94%EV -9.01%E -2.54%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.22%EV -8.83%E -2.99%K -4.53%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-02 00:14
BoyleSports🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.78%EV -8.72%E -4.15%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.52%EV -3.88%E -1.04%K -1.41%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -10.38%E -3.58%K -5.46%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-01 23:59
SportsBet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.78%EV -8.72%E -4.15%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.19%EV -2.60%E -0.685%K -0.930%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.03%EV -11.31%E -3.94%K -6.05%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-02 00:14
Betr (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.03%EV -8.72%E -4.15%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.82%EV -10.29%E -2.94%K -4.12%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.16%EV -10.38%E -3.58%K -5.46%G +0.000%10.7%2026-03-02 00:04
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.86%EV -8.72%E -4.15%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -7.73%E -2.15%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.14%EV -13.47%E -4.81%K -7.48%G +0.000%11.1%2026-03-02 00:14
Winamax (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.29%EV -10.90%E -5.32%K -10.38%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.94%EV -10.29%E -2.94%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.77%EV -5.74%E -1.88%K -2.80%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-02 00:04
Sky Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.90%EV -10.90%E -5.32%K -10.38%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.13%EV -10.29%E -2.94%K -4.12%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.98%EV -15.01%E -5.46%K -8.58%G +0.000%13.7%2026-03-02 00:14
Betclic (FR)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 44.12%EV -12.20%E -6.04%K -11.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.46%EV -10.29%E -2.94%K -4.12%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 30.42%EV -9.45%E -3.23%K -4.90%G +0.000%12.2%2026-03-02 00:15
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.23%EV -13.07%E -6.53%K -13.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.27%EV -10.29%E -2.94%K -4.12%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.50%EV -10.38%E -3.58%K -5.46%G +0.000%13.1%2026-03-02 00:04
Winamax (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.96%EV -13.07%E -6.53%K -13.07%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.24%EV -14.14%E -4.22%K -6.02%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.80%EV -8.83%E -2.99%K -4.53%G +0.000%13.7%2026-03-02 00:04
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 42.61%EV -13.07%E -6.53%K -13.07%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.82%EV -15.42%E -4.67%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 31.56%EV -16.56%E -6.13%K -9.74%G +0.000%17.3%2026-03-02 00:14
PMU (FR)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 43.52%EV -17.42%E -9.17%K -19.35%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 24.68%EV -14.14%E -4.22%K -6.02%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 31.80%EV -19.65%E -7.56%K -12.28%G +0.000%20.9%2026-03-02 00:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.28I 43.86%NM 43.37%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.72%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.90%1.1%2026-03-02 00:14
Matchbook◎2.28I 43.86%NM 43.37%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.72%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.90%1.1%2026-03-02 00:14
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.26I 44.25%NM 43.59%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.63%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.78%1.5%2026-03-02 00:14
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.26I 44.25%NM 43.59%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.63%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.78%1.5%2026-03-02 00:14
Smarkets◎2.26I 44.25%NM 43.37%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.50%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.13%2.0%2026-03-02 00:14