The School of Odds
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Defensa y Justicia v Gimnasia Mendoza

Kickoff: 2026-09-11 22:15 UTC

Final: Defensa y Justicia 2–0 Gimnasia Mendoza

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

34 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Defensa y Justicia (Local)

Prediction 44.60%2.24fair odd
EV -5.01%
Edge -2.35%
Kelly -4.43%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.13

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.74%44.62%44.57%45.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.072.102.1351.28%48.29%47.62%46.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Gimnasia Mendoza (Visit)

Prediction 25.47%3.93fair odd
EV -1.95%
Edge -0.506%
Kelly -0.684%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.72%25.49%25.48%26.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.353.613.603.8529.85%27.71%27.78%25.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.94%3.34fair odd
EV -4.21%
Edge -1.31%
Kelly -1.91%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.56%29.89%29.95%30.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.103.103.2034.48%32.25%32.26%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Defensa y Justicia (Local): 44.60%; Gimnasia Mendoza (Visit): 25.47%; Draw: 29.94%. For Gimnasia Mendoza (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.93. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.85, with an expected value of -1.95%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (34 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 44.67%EV -5.01%E -2.35%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.04%EV -3.22%E -0.848%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 30.30%EV -6.00%E -1.91%K -2.80%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-09 04:15
BetOnline.ag🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.93%EV -5.45%E -2.57%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.74%EV -1.95%E -0.506%K -0.684%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 30.33%EV -6.00%E -1.91%K -2.80%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-06 20:15
LowVig.ag🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.93%EV -5.45%E -2.57%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.74%EV -1.95%E -0.506%K -0.684%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 30.33%EV -6.00%E -1.91%K -2.80%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-06 20:15
BetAnything🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.93%EV -5.45%E -2.57%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.74%EV -1.95%E -0.506%K -0.684%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 30.33%EV -6.00%E -1.91%K -2.80%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-08 12:45
1xBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.80%EV -5.45%E -2.57%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.33%EV -4.50%E -1.20%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.87%EV -4.80%E -1.51%K -2.20%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-09 14:55
Betsson🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.52%EV -5.45%E -2.57%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.51%EV -5.77%E -1.56%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.97%EV -5.70%E -1.81%K -2.65%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-09 02:39
NordicBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.52%EV -5.45%E -2.57%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.51%EV -5.77%E -1.56%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.97%EV -5.70%E -1.81%K -2.65%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-09 02:40
SportsBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.21%EV -5.45%E -2.57%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.04%EV -8.32%E -2.31%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.75%EV -5.70%E -1.81%K -2.65%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-09 03:49
Codere (IT)🎯2.11I 47.39%NM 44.85%EV -5.90%E -2.80%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.58%EV -5.77%E -1.56%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.57%EV -4.21%E -1.31%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-09 11:29
Fanatics🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -6.35%E -3.02%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -8.32%E -2.31%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -4.21%E -1.31%K -1.91%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-07 17:29
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -6.35%E -3.02%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -8.32%E -2.31%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -4.21%E -1.31%K -1.91%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-09 03:50
Bovada🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.54%EV -6.35%E -3.02%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -5.77%E -1.56%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.17%EV -7.20%E -2.32%K -3.43%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-09 02:13
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.54%EV -6.35%E -3.02%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -5.77%E -1.56%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.17%EV -7.20%E -2.32%K -3.43%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-09 02:44
BetMGM🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.54%EV -6.35%E -3.02%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -5.77%E -1.56%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.17%EV -7.20%E -2.32%K -3.43%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-09 02:45
DraftKings🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.54%EV -6.35%E -3.02%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -5.77%E -1.56%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.17%EV -7.20%E -2.32%K -3.43%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-08 22:15
theScore Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -6.35%E -3.02%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -8.32%E -2.31%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.63%EV -5.70%E -1.81%K -2.65%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-09 11:30
FanDuel🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.23%EV -6.35%E -3.02%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -8.32%E -2.31%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -7.20%E -2.32%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-09 03:49
betfred_uk🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.91%EV -6.35%E -3.02%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -10.86%E -3.10%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -7.20%E -2.32%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-09 03:49
Bet Right🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.91%EV -6.35%E -3.02%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -10.86%E -3.10%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -7.20%E -2.32%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-09 03:49
Unibet (SE)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.05%EV -7.24%E -3.48%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.67%EV -7.04%E -1.93%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.28%EV -4.21%E -1.31%K -1.91%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-09 13:30
Unibet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.05%EV -7.24%E -3.48%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.67%EV -7.04%E -1.93%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.28%EV -4.21%E -1.31%K -1.91%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-09 13:30
Marathon Bet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.81%EV -7.24%E -3.48%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 25.32%EV -6.28%E -1.71%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.87%EV -6.60%E -2.12%K -3.11%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-09 14:50
Betway🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -8.58%E -4.18%K -8.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -8.32%E -2.31%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -7.20%E -2.32%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-08 22:14
BetRivers🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.67%EV -8.58%E -4.18%K -8.17%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.79%EV -9.59%E -2.70%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.54%EV -7.20%E -2.32%K -3.43%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-09 13:30
Paddy Power🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.50%EV -8.58%E -4.18%K -8.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -10.86%E -3.10%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -7.20%E -2.32%K -3.43%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-09 03:50
BoyleSports🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.39%EV -8.58%E -4.18%K -8.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -8.32%E -2.31%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.33%EV -10.19%E -3.40%K -5.10%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-08 20:44
Sky Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.74%EV -8.58%E -4.18%K -8.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -13.41%E -3.94%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -10.19%E -3.40%K -5.10%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-09 03:50
Winamax (DE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.98%EV -10.81%E -5.40%K -10.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.46%EV -13.41%E -3.94%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.56%EV -5.70%E -1.81%K -2.65%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-09 11:30
Winamax (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.39%EV -10.81%E -5.40%K -10.81%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.50%EV -14.68%E -4.38%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.11%EV -8.70%E -2.85%K -4.24%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-09 11:30
Virgin Bet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 44.76%EV -11.70%E -5.91%K -11.94%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.69%EV -12.14%E -3.52%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.54%EV -10.19%E -3.40%K -5.10%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-09 13:30
LiveScore Bet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 44.76%EV -11.70%E -5.91%K -11.94%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.69%EV -12.14%E -3.52%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.54%EV -10.19%E -3.40%K -5.10%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-09 13:30
NetBet (FR)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 44.41%EV -11.70%E -5.91%K -11.94%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.48%EV -12.14%E -3.52%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 30.11%EV -12.59%E -4.31%K -6.56%G +0.000%13.7%2026-09-09 11:29
Betclic (FR)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.01%EV -13.04%E -6.69%K -13.72%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.72%EV -9.59%E -2.70%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.27%EV -13.19%E -4.55%K -6.94%G +0.000%13.9%2026-09-09 11:28
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 44.75%EV -13.04%E -6.69%K -13.72%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.67%EV -13.41%E -3.94%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.58%EV -11.69%E -3.96%K -5.99%G +0.000%14.6%2026-09-09 13:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.22I 45.05%NM 44.58%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.70%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.72%1.0%2026-09-09 14:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.14I 46.73%NM 44.74%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.87%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.39%4.4%2026-09-09 15:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.14I 46.73%NM 44.74%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.87%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.39%4.4%2026-09-09 15:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.14I 46.73%NM 44.74%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.87%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.39%4.4%2026-09-09 12:00
Smarkets◎2.14I 46.73%NM 44.38%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.99%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.63%5.3%2026-09-09 12:10