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默认模型四分位数间均值 (精选名单)
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Defensa y Justicia v Gimnasia Mendoza

开赛时间： 2026-09-11 22:15 UTC

最终结果： Defensa y Justicia 2–0 Gimnasia Mendoza

收盘赔率 — 按所选模型，根据开赛前最后记录的赔率计算得出的概率和期望值。比赛已经开始，因此这些并非实时数据。 依据所有已完赛结果评估各模型概率预测的可靠性 →

胜负盘

34 家博彩公司 (16 家纳入分析 )

模型估计的各赛果概率：四分位数间均值 (精选名单)

Defensa y Justicia (主队)

预测 44.60%2.24公平赔率
EV -5.01%
优势 -2.35%
Kelly -4.43%
增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 2.13

博彩公司预测分布
43.74%44.62%44.57%45.05%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
1.952.072.102.1351.28%48.29%47.62%46.95%最小值均值中位数最大值

Gimnasia Mendoza (客队)

预测 25.47%3.93公平赔率
EV -1.95%
优势 -0.506%
Kelly -0.684%
增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 3.85

博彩公司预测分布
24.72%25.49%25.48%26.50%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
3.353.613.603.8529.85%27.71%27.78%25.97%最小值均值中位数最大值

平局

预测 29.94%3.34公平赔率
EV -4.21%
优势 -1.31%
Kelly -1.91%
增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 3.20

博彩公司预测分布
28.56%29.89%29.95%30.33%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
2.903.103.103.2034.48%32.25%32.26%31.25%最小值均值中位数最大值

按开赛前最后一组赔率，四分位数间均值 (精选名单)对胜负盘的概率估计为：Defensa y Justicia (主队)：44.60%；Gimnasia Mendoza (客队)：25.47%；平局：29.94%。 对于“Gimnasia Mendoza (客队)”，该估计对应的公平十进制赔率为3.93。 当时没有符合条件的博彩公司提供高于该水平的收盘赔率：最佳赔率为3.85，期望值为-1.95%，未产生正期望值。

博彩公司赔率 (34 家博彩公司)

我们与任何博彩公司均无关联，也不会从用户在这些公司进行的任何操作中获利。

博彩公司主队 ▼客队平局利润率更新时间
Pinnacle🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 44.67%EV -5.01%E -2.35%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.04%EV -3.22%E -0.848%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 30.30%EV -6.00%E -1.91%K -2.80%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-09 04:15
BetOnline.ag🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.93%EV -5.45%E -2.57%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.74%EV -1.95%E -0.506%K -0.684%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 30.33%EV -6.00%E -1.91%K -2.80%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-06 20:15
LowVig.ag🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.93%EV -5.45%E -2.57%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.74%EV -1.95%E -0.506%K -0.684%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 30.33%EV -6.00%E -1.91%K -2.80%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-06 20:15
BetAnything🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.93%EV -5.45%E -2.57%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.74%EV -1.95%E -0.506%K -0.684%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 30.33%EV -6.00%E -1.91%K -2.80%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-08 12:45
1xBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.80%EV -5.45%E -2.57%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.33%EV -4.50%E -1.20%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.87%EV -4.80%E -1.51%K -2.20%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-09 14:55
Betsson🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.52%EV -5.45%E -2.57%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.51%EV -5.77%E -1.56%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.97%EV -5.70%E -1.81%K -2.65%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-09 02:39
NordicBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.52%EV -5.45%E -2.57%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.51%EV -5.77%E -1.56%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.97%EV -5.70%E -1.81%K -2.65%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-09 02:40
SportsBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.21%EV -5.45%E -2.57%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.04%EV -8.32%E -2.31%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.75%EV -5.70%E -1.81%K -2.65%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-09 03:49
Codere (IT)🎯2.11I 47.39%NM 44.85%EV -5.90%E -2.80%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.58%EV -5.77%E -1.56%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.57%EV -4.21%E -1.31%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-09 11:29
Fanatics🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -6.35%E -3.02%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -8.32%E -2.31%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -4.21%E -1.31%K -1.91%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-07 17:29
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -6.35%E -3.02%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -8.32%E -2.31%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -4.21%E -1.31%K -1.91%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-09 03:50
Bovada🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.54%EV -6.35%E -3.02%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -5.77%E -1.56%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.17%EV -7.20%E -2.32%K -3.43%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-09 02:13
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.54%EV -6.35%E -3.02%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -5.77%E -1.56%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.17%EV -7.20%E -2.32%K -3.43%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-09 02:44
BetMGM🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.54%EV -6.35%E -3.02%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -5.77%E -1.56%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.17%EV -7.20%E -2.32%K -3.43%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-09 02:45
DraftKings🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.54%EV -6.35%E -3.02%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -5.77%E -1.56%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.17%EV -7.20%E -2.32%K -3.43%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-08 22:15
theScore Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -6.35%E -3.02%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -8.32%E -2.31%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.63%EV -5.70%E -1.81%K -2.65%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-09 11:30
FanDuel🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.23%EV -6.35%E -3.02%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -8.32%E -2.31%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -7.20%E -2.32%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-09 03:49
betfred_uk🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.91%EV -6.35%E -3.02%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -10.86%E -3.10%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -7.20%E -2.32%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-09 03:49
Bet Right🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.91%EV -6.35%E -3.02%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -10.86%E -3.10%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -7.20%E -2.32%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-09 03:49
Unibet (SE)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.05%EV -7.24%E -3.48%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.67%EV -7.04%E -1.93%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.28%EV -4.21%E -1.31%K -1.91%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-09 13:30
Unibet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.05%EV -7.24%E -3.48%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.67%EV -7.04%E -1.93%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.28%EV -4.21%E -1.31%K -1.91%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-09 13:30
Marathon Bet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.81%EV -7.24%E -3.48%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 25.32%EV -6.28%E -1.71%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.87%EV -6.60%E -2.12%K -3.11%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-09 14:50
Betway🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -8.58%E -4.18%K -8.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -8.32%E -2.31%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -7.20%E -2.32%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-08 22:14
BetRivers🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.67%EV -8.58%E -4.18%K -8.17%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.79%EV -9.59%E -2.70%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.54%EV -7.20%E -2.32%K -3.43%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-09 13:30
Paddy Power🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.50%EV -8.58%E -4.18%K -8.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -10.86%E -3.10%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -7.20%E -2.32%K -3.43%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-09 03:50
BoyleSports🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.39%EV -8.58%E -4.18%K -8.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -8.32%E -2.31%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.33%EV -10.19%E -3.40%K -5.10%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-08 20:44
Sky Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.74%EV -8.58%E -4.18%K -8.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -13.41%E -3.94%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -10.19%E -3.40%K -5.10%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-09 03:50
Winamax (DE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.98%EV -10.81%E -5.40%K -10.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.46%EV -13.41%E -3.94%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.56%EV -5.70%E -1.81%K -2.65%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-09 11:30
Winamax (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.39%EV -10.81%E -5.40%K -10.81%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.50%EV -14.68%E -4.38%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.11%EV -8.70%E -2.85%K -4.24%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-09 11:30
Virgin Bet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 44.76%EV -11.70%E -5.91%K -11.94%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.69%EV -12.14%E -3.52%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.54%EV -10.19%E -3.40%K -5.10%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-09 13:30
LiveScore Bet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 44.76%EV -11.70%E -5.91%K -11.94%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.69%EV -12.14%E -3.52%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.54%EV -10.19%E -3.40%K -5.10%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-09 13:30
NetBet (FR)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 44.41%EV -11.70%E -5.91%K -11.94%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.48%EV -12.14%E -3.52%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 30.11%EV -12.59%E -4.31%K -6.56%G +0.000%13.7%2026-09-09 11:29
Betclic (FR)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.01%EV -13.04%E -6.69%K -13.72%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.72%EV -9.59%E -2.70%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.27%EV -13.19%E -4.55%K -6.94%G +0.000%13.9%2026-09-09 11:28
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 44.75%EV -13.04%E -6.69%K -13.72%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.67%EV -13.41%E -3.94%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.58%EV -11.69%E -3.96%K -5.99%G +0.000%14.6%2026-09-09 13:30
利润率 = 利润率（超额概率） · I = 隐含概率 · NM = 无利润率概率 · EV = 期望值 · E = 优势 · K = Kelly 准则 · G = 资金增长率

更新时间 指各博彩公司最后一次调整赔率的时间，因此时间较早仅表示赔率一直未变，并不代表数据已经失效。通常，约 15 分钟内未收到更新的博彩公司会被移除；只有整个市场的数据源均无更新时，才会改为显示最后记录的赔率。

博彩交易所 (5)

博彩公司主队客队平局利润率 ▲更新时间
Kalshi◎2.22I 45.05%NM 44.58%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.70%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.72%1.0%2026-09-09 14:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.14I 46.73%NM 44.74%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.87%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.39%4.4%2026-09-09 15:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.14I 46.73%NM 44.74%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.87%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.39%4.4%2026-09-09 15:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.14I 46.73%NM 44.74%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.87%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.39%4.4%2026-09-09 12:00
Smarkets◎2.14I 46.73%NM 44.38%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.99%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.63%5.3%2026-09-09 12:10