Language:English
Boca Juniors v San Lorenzo
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Boca Juniors (Local)
Prediction 54.37%1.84fair odd
EV -4.31%
Edge -2.45%
Kelly -5.67%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.76
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.59%54.41%54.31%57.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.541.691.701.7664.94%59.14%58.82%56.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
San Lorenzo (Visit)
Prediction 16.09%6.22fair odd
EV +2.81%
Edge +0.439%
Kelly +0.521%
Growth +0.015%
assuming max odds 6.39
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.94%16.08%16.16%17.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.765.756.3920.00%17.35%17.39%15.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 29.54%3.38fair odd
EV +0.447%
Edge +0.131%
Kelly +0.186%
Growth +0.001%
assuming max odds 3.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.63%29.51%29.53%30.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.143.153.4035.71%31.85%31.75%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Boca Juniors (Local): 54.37%; San Lorenzo (Visit): 16.09%; Draw: 29.54%. For San Lorenzo (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.22. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.39, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.81%.
Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.80%EV -6.49%E -3.77%K -9.01%G +0.000% | 6.39I 15.65%NM 15.02%EV +2.81%E +0.439%K +0.521%G +0.015% | 3.29I 30.40%NM 29.17%EV -2.80%E -0.852%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-11 22:34 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 55.11%EV -4.86%E -2.77%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 6.34I 15.77%NM 15.21%EV +2.00%E +0.316%K +0.375%G +0.008% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.68%EV -3.98%E -1.23%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-03-11 22:39 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.02%EV -9.75%E -5.87%K -14.77%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.14%EV +0.555%E +0.089%K +0.106%G +0.001% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.84%EV +0.447%E +0.131%K +0.186%G +0.001% | 5.7% | 2026-03-11 22:30 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.93%EV -10.29%E -6.24%K -15.84%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.03%EV +0.555%E +0.089%K +0.106%G +0.001% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.04%EV -1.03%E -0.308%K -0.438%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-11 22:30 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.93%EV -7.57%E -4.46%K -10.82%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.94%EV +0.555%E +0.089%K +0.106%G +0.001% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -8.42%E -2.71%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-11 22:34 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 56.78%EV -11.38%E -6.98%K -18.06%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.17%EV -1.86%E -0.305%K -0.364%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -2.51%E -0.760%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-11 22:29 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.15%EV -4.31%E -2.45%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.88%EV -3.47%E -0.578%K -0.693%G +0.000% | 3.18I 31.45%NM 29.97%EV -6.05%E -1.90%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-11 22:25 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.15%EV -4.31%E -2.45%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.88%EV -3.47%E -0.578%K -0.693%G +0.000% | 3.18I 31.45%NM 29.97%EV -6.05%E -1.90%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-11 22:25 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.15%EV -4.31%E -2.45%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.88%EV -3.47%E -0.578%K -0.693%G +0.000% | 3.18I 31.45%NM 29.97%EV -6.05%E -1.90%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-11 22:25 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.53%EV -5.40%E -3.10%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.81%EV -3.47%E -0.578%K -0.693%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.65%EV -5.46%E -1.71%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-11 22:34 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.51%EV -9.21%E -5.51%K -13.74%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -3.47%E -0.578%K -0.693%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.76%EV +0.447%E +0.131%K +0.186%G +0.001% | 6.0% | 2026-03-11 22:39 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.42%EV -5.94%E -3.44%K -8.14%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.69%EV -3.47%E -0.578%K -0.693%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.89%EV -6.94%E -2.20%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-11 22:30 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.59%EV -7.57%E -4.46%K -10.82%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -3.47%E -0.578%K -0.693%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.94%EV -8.42%E -2.71%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-11 22:34 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 54.74%EV -8.12%E -4.80%K -11.77%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.42%EV -3.47%E -0.578%K -0.693%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.84%EV -8.42%E -2.71%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-11 22:34 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.85%EV -13.01%E -8.13%K -21.69%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.16%EV -3.47%E -0.578%K -0.693%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.99%EV -3.98%E -1.23%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-03-11 22:29 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.52%EV -6.49%E -3.77%K -9.01%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.17%EV -6.68%E -1.15%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.31%EV -5.46%E -1.71%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-11 22:39 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 56.64%EV -12.47%E -7.74%K -20.44%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.72%EV -6.68%E -1.15%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -2.51%E -0.760%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-03-11 22:39 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.16%EV -5.40%E -3.10%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.39%EV -7.49%E -1.30%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -5.46%E -1.71%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-11 22:10 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.77%EV -4.86%E -2.77%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.36%EV -7.49%E -1.30%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.87%EV -6.94%E -2.20%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-11 22:30 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.51%EV -4.86%E -2.77%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.29%EV -7.49%E -1.30%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.21%EV -8.42%E -2.71%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-11 22:34 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.65%EV -5.40%E -3.10%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.24%EV -7.49%E -1.30%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -8.42%E -2.71%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-11 22:34 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.59%EV -7.03%E -4.11%K -9.90%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.24%EV -7.49%E -1.30%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.17%EV -5.46%E -1.71%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-11 22:30 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.20%EV -6.49%E -3.77%K -9.01%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.21%EV -7.49%E -1.30%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.59%EV -6.94%E -2.20%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-11 22:39 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.92%EV -5.94%E -3.44%K -8.14%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.37%EV -8.29%E -1.46%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 3.14I 31.85%NM 29.71%EV -7.23%E -2.30%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-11 22:30 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 54.36%EV -10.84%E -6.61%K -16.93%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 15.92%EV -9.90%E -1.77%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.72%EV -11.37%E -3.79%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-03-11 22:30 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.80%EV -6.49%E -3.77%K -9.01%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.82%EV -11.51%E -2.09%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.38%EV -6.94%E -2.20%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-11 22:29 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.34%EV -7.57%E -4.46%K -10.82%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.80%EV -11.51%E -2.09%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.87%EV -5.46%E -1.71%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-11 22:29 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.59%EV -4.86%E -2.77%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -11.51%E -2.09%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.68%EV -11.37%E -3.79%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-11 22:20 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 53.69%EV -7.03%E -4.11%K -9.90%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.69%EV -11.51%E -2.09%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.62%EV -8.42%E -2.71%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-03-11 22:25 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.75%EV -9.21%E -5.51%K -13.74%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.32%EV -11.51%E -2.09%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.92%EV -11.37%E -3.79%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-03-11 22:34 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.75%EV -9.21%E -5.51%K -13.74%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.32%EV -11.51%E -2.09%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.92%EV -11.37%E -3.79%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-03-11 22:34 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 54.31%EV -10.84%E -6.61%K -16.93%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.19%EV -11.51%E -2.09%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.02I 33.11%NM 29.49%EV -10.78%E -3.57%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-03-11 22:32 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 55.13%EV -14.10%E -8.92%K -24.31%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 15.84%EV -11.51%E -2.09%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.03%EV -11.37%E -3.79%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 14.8% | 2026-03-11 22:38 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.22%EV -8.66%E -5.16%K -12.74%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.87%EV -13.12%E -2.43%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.92%EV -6.94%E -2.20%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-03-11 22:35 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 54.33%EV -16.27%E -10.57%K -30.14%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 15.79%EV -14.73%E -2.78%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 29.88%EV -17.28%E -6.17%K -9.60%G +0.000% | 19.5% | 2026-03-11 22:34 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.16%EV -7.57%E -4.46%K -10.82%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.21%EV -15.53%E -2.96%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.63%EV -9.89%E -3.24%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-03-11 22:20 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 53.53%EV -10.84%E -6.61%K -16.93%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.21%EV -17.95%E -3.52%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.26%EV -11.37%E -3.79%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-03-11 22:29 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 53.01%EV -11.92%E -7.36%K -19.23%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.17%EV -19.56%E -3.91%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 29.82%EV -14.92%E -5.18%K -7.93%G +0.000% | 16.5% | 2026-03-11 22:34 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.81I 55.25%NM 54.86% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 15.05% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.09% | 0.7% | 2026-03-11 22:39 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.81I 55.25%NM 54.86% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 15.05% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.09% | 0.7% | 2026-03-11 22:39 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.79I 55.87%NM 55.14% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.95% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.91% | 1.3% | 2026-03-11 22:40 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.79I 55.87%NM 55.14% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.95% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.91% | 1.3% | 2026-03-11 22:39 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.75I 57.14%NM 55.95% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.67% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.38% | 2.1% | 2026-03-11 22:15 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.79I 55.87%NM 54.63% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.28% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.09% | 2.3% | 2026-03-11 22:40 |