Language:English
Boca Juniors v Lanus
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Boca Juniors (Local)
Prediction 49.47%2.02fair odd
EV -4.53%
Edge -2.35%
Kelly -4.87%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.93
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.11%49.50%49.47%51.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.771.861.871.9356.50%53.67%53.48%51.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Lanus (Visit)
Prediction 20.95%4.77fair odd
EV +4.76%
Edge +0.951%
Kelly +1.19%
Growth +0.057%
assuming max odds 5.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.32%20.91%21.00%22.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.954.454.405.0025.32%22.49%22.73%20.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 29.58%3.38fair odd
EV -1.49%
Edge -0.448%
Kelly -0.640%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.33
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.41%29.58%29.54%31.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.123.153.3335.71%32.08%31.75%30.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Boca Juniors (Local): 49.47%; Lanus (Visit): 20.95%; Draw: 29.58%. For Lanus (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.77. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.76%.
Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.66%EV -7.50%E -4.01%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.32%EV +4.76%E +0.951%K +1.19%G +0.057% | 3.33I 30.03%NM 29.01%EV -1.49%E -0.448%K -0.640%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-08-28 23:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.66%EV -7.50%E -4.01%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.32%EV +4.76%E +0.951%K +1.19%G +0.057% | 3.33I 30.03%NM 29.01%EV -1.49%E -0.448%K -0.640%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-08-28 23:55 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.66%EV -7.50%E -4.01%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.32%EV +4.76%E +0.951%K +1.19%G +0.057% | 3.33I 30.03%NM 29.01%EV -1.49%E -0.448%K -0.640%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-08-28 23:55 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.72%EV -9.48%E -5.18%K -11.42%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.34%EV +0.566%E +0.118%K +0.149%G +0.001% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.94%EV -8.29%E -2.68%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-29 00:14 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.93%EV -4.53%E -2.35%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 4.76I 21.01%NM 20.24%EV -0.272%E -0.057%K -0.072%G +0.000% | 3.23I 30.96%NM 29.83%EV -4.45%E -1.38%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-29 00:15 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.03%EV -5.52%E -2.89%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.12%EV -0.482%E -0.101%K -0.129%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.86%EV -5.34%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-29 00:20 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.32%EV -7.50%E -4.01%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.81%EV -0.482%E -0.101%K -0.129%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.87%EV -6.82%E -2.16%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-29 00:15 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.95%EV -5.52%E -2.89%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.89%EV -1.53%E -0.325%K -0.413%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.16%EV -11.25%E -3.75%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-29 00:25 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.95%EV -5.52%E -2.89%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.89%EV -1.53%E -0.325%K -0.413%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.16%EV -11.25%E -3.75%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-29 00:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.02%EV -9.97%E -5.48%K -12.16%G +0.000% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 19.97%EV -2.58%E -0.554%K -0.706%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.02%EV -5.34%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-29 00:24 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.02%EV -9.97%E -5.48%K -12.16%G +0.000% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 19.97%EV -2.58%E -0.554%K -0.706%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.02%EV -5.34%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-29 00:20 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.11%EV -5.52%E -2.89%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.98%EV -3.62%E -0.788%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.91%EV -14.80%E -5.14%K -7.87%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-29 00:15 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.75%EV -4.53%E -2.35%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 4.54I 22.03%NM 21.15%EV -4.88%E -1.08%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.10%EV -2.38%E -0.721%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-29 00:25 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.47%EV -5.52%E -2.89%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.00%EV -5.72%E -1.27%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.53%EV -5.34%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-29 00:14 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.87%EV -7.00%E -3.73%K -7.96%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.83%EV -5.72%E -1.27%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -5.34%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-29 00:25 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.08%EV -9.48%E -5.18%K -11.42%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.36%EV -5.72%E -1.27%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.56%EV -8.29%E -2.68%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-29 00:05 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.00%EV -10.96%E -6.09%K -13.70%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.00%EV -5.72%E -1.27%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -11.25%E -3.75%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-08-29 00:15 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.00%EV -10.96%E -6.09%K -13.70%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.00%EV -5.72%E -1.27%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -11.25%E -3.75%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-08-29 00:15 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.46%EV -5.52%E -2.89%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.47%EV -7.81%E -1.78%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.07%EV -3.86%E -1.19%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-29 00:00 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.87%EV -5.52%E -2.89%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.21%EV -7.81%E -1.78%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 29.92%EV -7.70%E -2.47%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-29 00:25 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.12%EV -5.52%E -2.89%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.57%EV -8.86%E -2.04%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -5.34%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-29 00:25 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 48.61%EV -9.97%E -5.48%K -12.16%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.34%EV -8.86%E -2.04%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.05%EV -15.69%E -5.51%K -8.48%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-08-29 00:25 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 48.61%EV -9.97%E -5.48%K -12.16%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.34%EV -8.86%E -2.04%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.05%EV -15.69%E -5.51%K -8.48%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-08-29 00:25 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.61%EV -5.52%E -2.89%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.44%EV -9.28%E -2.14%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.95%EV -8.29%E -2.68%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-29 00:25 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.60%EV -7.50%E -4.01%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.42%EV -9.28%E -2.14%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.98%EV -5.34%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-29 00:05 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.61%EV -10.96%E -6.09%K -13.70%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.62%EV -9.28%E -2.14%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.77%EV -11.25%E -3.75%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-08-29 00:00 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.96%EV -4.53%E -2.35%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.97%EV -9.91%E -2.30%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.07%EV -3.86%E -1.19%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-29 00:25 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 48.51%EV -10.96%E -6.09%K -13.70%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.31%EV -9.91%E -2.30%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.18%EV -17.17%E -6.13%K -9.54%G +0.000% | 14.5% | 2026-08-29 00:25 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.16%EV -5.02%E -2.62%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.02%EV -12.01%E -2.86%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.83%EV -8.29%E -2.68%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-29 00:25 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.05%EV -7.50%E -4.01%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.84%EV -12.01%E -2.86%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.12%EV -6.82%E -2.16%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-29 00:25 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.81%EV -9.48%E -5.18%K -11.42%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.70%EV -12.01%E -2.86%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.49%EV -5.34%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-08-29 00:25 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 49.57%EV -12.44%E -7.03%K -16.16%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.89%EV -12.01%E -2.86%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 2.97I 33.67%NM 29.54%EV -12.14%E -4.09%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-08-29 00:10 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.76%EV -9.48%E -5.18%K -11.42%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 21.50%EV -13.05%E -3.15%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.74%EV -11.25%E -3.75%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-08-29 00:25 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.26%EV -5.52%E -2.89%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.48%EV -14.10%E -3.44%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.26%EV -6.82%E -2.16%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-29 00:25 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.83%EV -8.49%E -4.59%K -9.98%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.03%EV -14.10%E -3.44%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.14%EV -8.29%E -2.68%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-08-29 00:25 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 49.57%EV -12.44%E -7.03%K -16.16%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 21.66%EV -15.15%E -3.74%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.77%EV -9.77%E -3.20%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-08-29 00:25 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 48.87%EV -7.99%E -4.30%K -9.29%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.72%EV -16.20%E -4.05%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.41%EV -5.34%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-08-29 00:25 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 48.78%EV -8.98%E -4.88%K -10.69%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.72%EV -17.24%E -4.37%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.49%EV -6.82%E -2.16%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-08-29 00:25 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.97I 50.76%NM 50.42% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.48% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.10% | 0.7% | 2026-08-29 00:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.96I 51.02%NM 50.55% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.43% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.02% | 0.9% | 2026-08-29 00:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.96I 51.02%NM 50.55% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.43% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.02% | 0.9% | 2026-08-29 00:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.96I 51.02%NM 50.32% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.34% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.35% | 1.4% | 2026-08-29 00:25 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.92I 52.08%NM 51.01% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.59% | 3.33I 30.03%NM 29.41% | 2.1% | 2026-08-29 00:25 |