Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Boca Juniors v Lanus

Início: 2026-08-29 00:30 UTC

Final: Boca Juniors 1–0 Lanus

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

38 casas de apostas (17 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Boca Juniors (Local)

Previsão 49.47%2.02odd justa
EV -4.53%
Vantagem -2.35%
Kelly -4.87%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.93

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
48.11%49.50%49.47%51.66%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.771.861.871.9356.50%53.67%53.48%51.81%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Lanus (Visitante)

Previsão 20.95%4.77odd justa
EV +4.76%
Vantagem +0.951%
Kelly +1.19%
Crescimento +0.057%

pressupondo odds máximas de 5.00

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
19.32%20.91%21.00%22.72%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.954.454.405.0025.32%22.49%22.73%20.00%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 29.58%3.38odd justa
EV -1.49%
Vantagem -0.448%
Kelly -0.640%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.33

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
28.41%29.58%29.54%31.91%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.803.123.153.3335.71%32.08%31.75%30.03%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Boca Juniors (Local): 49.47%; Lanus (Visitante): 20.95%; Empate: 29.58%. Para Lanus (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 4.77. 4 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 5.00, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +4.76%.

Odds das casas de apostas (38 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargemAtualização
LowVig.ag🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.66%EV -7.50%E -4.01%K -8.62%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.32%EV +4.76%E +0.951%K +1.19%G +0.057%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.01%EV -1.49%E -0.448%K -0.640%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-28 23:50
BetOnline.ag🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.66%EV -7.50%E -4.01%K -8.62%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.32%EV +4.76%E +0.951%K +1.19%G +0.057%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.01%EV -1.49%E -0.448%K -0.640%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-28 23:55
BetAnything🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.66%EV -7.50%E -4.01%K -8.62%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.32%EV +4.76%E +0.951%K +1.19%G +0.057%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.01%EV -1.49%E -0.448%K -0.640%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-28 23:55
FanDuel🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.72%EV -9.48%E -5.18%K -11.42%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.34%EV +0.566%E +0.118%K +0.149%G +0.001%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.94%EV -8.29%E -2.68%K -3.95%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-29 00:14
Pinnacle🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.93%EV -4.53%E -2.35%K -4.87%G +0.000%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.24%EV -0.272%E -0.057%K -0.072%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.83%EV -4.45%E -1.38%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-29 00:15
Fanatics🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.03%EV -5.52%E -2.89%K -6.07%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.12%EV -0.482%E -0.101%K -0.129%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.86%EV -5.34%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-29 00:20
SportsBet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.32%EV -7.50%E -4.01%K -8.62%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.81%EV -0.482%E -0.101%K -0.129%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.87%EV -6.82%E -2.16%K -3.17%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-29 00:15
Unibet (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.95%EV -5.52%E -2.89%K -6.07%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.89%EV -1.53%E -0.325%K -0.413%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.16%EV -11.25%E -3.75%K -5.63%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-29 00:25
Unibet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.95%EV -5.52%E -2.89%K -6.07%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.89%EV -1.53%E -0.325%K -0.413%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.16%EV -11.25%E -3.75%K -5.63%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-29 00:25
NordicBet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.02%EV -9.97%E -5.48%K -12.16%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 19.97%EV -2.58%E -0.554%K -0.706%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.02%EV -5.34%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-29 00:24
Betsson🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.02%EV -9.97%E -5.48%K -12.16%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 19.97%EV -2.58%E -0.554%K -0.706%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.02%EV -5.34%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-29 00:20
BetRivers🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.11%EV -5.52%E -2.89%K -6.07%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.98%EV -3.62%E -0.788%K -1.01%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.91%EV -14.80%E -5.14%K -7.87%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-29 00:15
1xBet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.75%EV -4.53%E -2.35%K -4.87%G +0.000%4.54I 22.03%NM 21.15%EV -4.88%E -1.08%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.10%EV -2.38%E -0.721%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-29 00:25
DraftKings🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.47%EV -5.52%E -2.89%K -6.07%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.00%EV -5.72%E -1.27%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.53%EV -5.34%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-29 00:14
Bovada🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.87%EV -7.00%E -3.73%K -7.96%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.83%EV -5.72%E -1.27%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -5.34%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-29 00:25
BoyleSports🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.08%EV -9.48%E -5.18%K -11.42%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.36%EV -5.72%E -1.27%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.56%EV -8.29%E -2.68%K -3.95%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-29 00:05
Paddy Power🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.00%EV -10.96%E -6.09%K -13.70%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.00%EV -5.72%E -1.27%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -11.25%E -3.75%K -5.63%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-29 00:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.00%EV -10.96%E -6.09%K -13.70%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.00%EV -5.72%E -1.27%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -11.25%E -3.75%K -5.63%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-29 00:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.46%EV -5.52%E -2.89%K -6.07%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.47%EV -7.81%E -1.78%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.07%EV -3.86%E -1.19%K -1.71%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-29 00:00
Marathon Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.87%EV -5.52%E -2.89%K -6.07%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.21%EV -7.81%E -1.78%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.92%EV -7.70%E -2.47%K -3.63%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-29 00:25
Unibet (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.12%EV -5.52%E -2.89%K -6.07%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.57%EV -8.86%E -2.04%K -2.65%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -5.34%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-29 00:25
Virgin Bet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 48.61%EV -9.97%E -5.48%K -12.16%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.34%EV -8.86%E -2.04%K -2.65%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.05%EV -15.69%E -5.51%K -8.48%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-29 00:25
LiveScore Bet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 48.61%EV -9.97%E -5.48%K -12.16%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.34%EV -8.86%E -2.04%K -2.65%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.05%EV -15.69%E -5.51%K -8.48%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-29 00:25
Betway🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.61%EV -5.52%E -2.89%K -6.07%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.44%EV -9.28%E -2.14%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.95%EV -8.29%E -2.68%K -3.95%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-29 00:25
BetMGM🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.60%EV -7.50%E -4.01%K -8.62%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.42%EV -9.28%E -2.14%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.98%EV -5.34%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-29 00:05
Sky Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.61%EV -10.96%E -6.09%K -13.70%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.62%EV -9.28%E -2.14%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.77%EV -11.25%E -3.75%K -5.63%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-29 00:00
Codere (IT)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.96%EV -4.53%E -2.35%K -4.87%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.97%EV -9.91%E -2.30%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.07%EV -3.86%E -1.19%K -1.71%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-29 00:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 48.51%EV -10.96%E -6.09%K -13.70%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.31%EV -9.91%E -2.30%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.18%EV -17.17%E -6.13%K -9.54%G +0.000%14.5%2026-08-29 00:25
PlayUp🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.16%EV -5.02%E -2.62%K -5.46%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.02%EV -12.01%E -2.86%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.83%EV -8.29%E -2.68%K -3.95%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-29 00:25
Bet Right🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.05%EV -7.50%E -4.01%K -8.62%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.84%EV -12.01%E -2.86%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.12%EV -6.82%E -2.16%K -3.17%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-29 00:25
betfred_uk🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.81%EV -9.48%E -5.18%K -11.42%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.70%EV -12.01%E -2.86%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.49%EV -5.34%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-29 00:25
NetBet (FR)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 49.57%EV -12.44%E -7.03%K -16.16%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.89%EV -12.01%E -2.86%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 29.54%EV -12.14%E -4.09%K -6.16%G +0.000%14.0%2026-08-29 00:10
Betclic (FR)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.76%EV -9.48%E -5.18%K -11.42%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.50%EV -13.05%E -3.15%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.74%EV -11.25%E -3.75%K -5.63%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-29 00:25
theScore Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.26%EV -5.52%E -2.89%K -6.07%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.48%EV -14.10%E -3.44%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.26%EV -6.82%E -2.16%K -3.17%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-29 00:25
Betr (AU)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.83%EV -8.49%E -4.59%K -9.98%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.03%EV -14.10%E -3.44%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.14%EV -8.29%E -2.68%K -3.95%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-29 00:25
Unibet (FR)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 49.57%EV -12.44%E -7.03%K -16.16%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 21.66%EV -15.15%E -3.74%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.77%EV -9.77%E -3.20%K -4.77%G +0.000%14.0%2026-08-29 00:25
Winamax (DE)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 48.87%EV -7.99%E -4.30%K -9.29%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.72%EV -16.20%E -4.05%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.41%EV -5.34%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-29 00:25
Winamax (FR)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 48.78%EV -8.98%E -4.88%K -10.69%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.72%EV -17.24%E -4.37%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.49%EV -6.82%E -2.16%K -3.17%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-29 00:25
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (5)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.97I 50.76%NM 50.42%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.48%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.10%0.7%2026-08-29 00:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.96I 51.02%NM 50.55%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.43%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.02%0.9%2026-08-29 00:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.96I 51.02%NM 50.55%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.43%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.02%0.9%2026-08-29 00:25
Smarkets◎1.96I 51.02%NM 50.32%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.34%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.35%1.4%2026-08-29 00:25
Kalshi◎1.92I 52.08%NM 51.01%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.59%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.41%2.1%2026-08-29 00:25